Gold Rising Following ADP Miss – NFP Next

USD Falls on Weak ADP NumberThe US Dollar is softening today on the back of yesterday’s ADP employment number, with gold prices rising as a result. The figure came in at 103k, down from 106k prior and well below the 131k the market was looking for. On the back of the release, traders are now eyeing tomorrow’s NFP number with caution. If a further weakness is shown, on the back of the drop in October’s data, this should strengthen the market’s dovish Fed expectations, leading USD lower into the FOMC.NFP ForecastsIn terms of forecasts for tomorrow’s readings, the market is looking for the headline NFP to print 185k from 150k prior with wage growth to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Given the bullish expectations on the headline reading, if we see a print beneath that forecast, this should be heavily bearish for USD. Focus will also be on the wage growth data, given its implications for inflation. A further drop would again be the preferred outcome for USD bears.Market ImplicationsIf we do see fresh weakness in tomorrow’s data, this should cement the view that the Fed will remain on hold through to cutting rates in H1 next year. In this scenario, a weaker US Dollar should help gold make a fresh break above the 2069.41 level. Alternatively, if we see surprise upside in tomorrow’s data, this should allow the current USD recovery to continue higher for now, sending gold lower.Technical ViewsGoldThe rally in gold prices has stalled for now into the 2069.41 level following the blow out move above the level. With strong bearish divergence in momentum studies, the market is at risk of a further move lower while below the level with 1973.51 the next support. However, while 1973.51 holds as support, the broader focus remains on further upside.