Global Economic Snapshot: China's Resilience, Surprising US Data, and UK Inflation Shockwaves

Significant improvements were seen on the macroeconomic front on Wednesday following the release of data from China. The third-quarter GDP growth came in at 4.9% on an annual basis, surpassing expectations of 4.4%. Industrial production (4.5% versus a forecast of 4.3%) and even often-underperforming retail sales (5.5% versus 4.9%) also exceeded expectations. Official unemployment in China has dropped to 5%. Among the key implications for global markets, we can consider improved forecasts for energy consumption (China being the second-largest net oil exporter) and a revision of growth forecasts for all major economies. This is because the growth of the Chinese economy largely reflects external demand for Chinese goods and services. Following this news, oil prices rose by more than 1%, with Brent crude testing the $93 per barrel mark, its highest since early October. Since the escalation in the Middle East, prices have risen by nearly 10%, putting pressure on countries heavily dependent on energy imports:In the United States, retail sales figures released yesterday also exceeded expectations. September's growth compared to the previous month more than doubled forecasts. US industrial production also surprised on the upside, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. The Federal Reserve is striving to maintain its policy flexibility, stating that more time is needed to assess the possibility of another rate hike this year. Richmond Fed Chief Barkin made this announcement yesterday. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields reached local highs today, with the yield on the 10-year bond reaching 4.85% and the 2-year bond hitting 5.24%, its highest level since 2006:Today's inflation data in the UK also surprised on the upside, increasing the likelihood of a tightening by the Bank of England in the upcoming meeting. Core inflation came in at 6.1% (forecast at 6%), while headline inflation reached 6.7% against a forecast of 6.6%. The report prevented the British pound from falling, and GBPUSD is consolidating near the opening level (around 1.22). However, the price remains within a descending channel, with attempts by buyers to take the initiative:From the chart, it's evident that the short-term resistance level for the pair will be around 1.2250. If it breaks and holds above 1.225 for at least a few days, the pound is likely to attract more buyers. However, if sellers manage to defend this level, pound weakness from a technical perspective may intensify, and the pair could head toward the recent low at 1.20.The dynamics of European currencies are now heavily influenced by the conflict in the Middle East. Markets vividly remember the recession in developed countries caused by the energy crisis of 1973 when Arab OPEC members sharply reduced production to influence global prices in their favor. The markets are likely to be inclined to consider this risk now, preparing for further rallies, and the likelihood of this scenario increases with each new escalation.