GBPUSD Uptrend Moving As Planned Six Months Later
<p>It’s been over six months since we last wrote about GBPUSD. At the start of 2023, the Pound was hovering around 1.2100, up nearly 17% from the all-time low it had fallen to in September, 2022. Inflation was already showing signs of slowing down, but the political and financial chaos left by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Liz Truss</a> made macro predictions quite unreliable.</p>
<p>So we turned to <a href="https://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-principle-infographics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elliott Wave</a> analysis instead. On January 8th, 2023, we thought GBPUSD was about to “<a href="https://ewminteractive.com/gbpusd-confirm-elliott-wave-turnaround" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">confirm its Elliott Wave turnaround</a>” soon. See, in financial markets, <strong>prices move in waves which form repetitive patterns.</strong> A five-wave pattern called <a href="https://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-patterns" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">an impulse</a> only occurs in the direction of the larger trend. Three-wave patterns, on the other hand, move against the bigger trend and are therefore called corrective.</p>
<p>In order to confirm the direction of the trend, we had to spot a complete five-wave impulse. That’s what we thought was going to emerge on the 4-hour chart of GBPUSD back in January.</p>
<figure><a href="https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count.png"><img decoding="async" width="1304" height="998" src="https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count.png" alt="" class="wp-image-22553" srcset="https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count.png 1304w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count-915×700.png 915w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count-1300×995.png 1300w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count-768×588.png 768w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GBPUSD-4h-chart-Elliott-Wave-count-600×459.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 1304px) 100vw, 1304px" /></a></figure>
<p><em>Similar Elliott Wave setups occur in the crypto, commodity and stock markets, as well. Our <a href="https://ewminteractive.com/courses/course/elliott-wave-perspective-video-course/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elliott Wave Video Course</a> can teach you how to recognize them yourself!</em></p>
<p>The 4h chart revealed that the recovery from 1.0360 wasn’t an impulse yet. It looked like waves 1-though-4 were in place. And despite the fact that fifth waves are never guaranteed, the sharp bounce in the first week of the new year suggested wave 4 was over. So, we thought wave 5 was only a matter of time. If this count was correct, GBPUSD was going to exceed the top of wave 3 at 1.2447 soon.</p>
<p>This, however, wouldn’t mean that joining the bulls near 1.2450 would be a good idea. According to the Elliott Wave theory, <strong>a three-wave correction follows every impulse before the trend can resume.</strong> Much better buying opportunities were likely to present themselves in wave (2/B). Then, wave (3/C) would lift the pair much higher over the next several months. Those several months have now passed and we think it is time to take another look.</p>
<figure><a href="https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GBPUSD-Six-Months-Later.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1280" height="950" src="https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GBPUSD-Six-Months-Later.png" alt="GBPUSD uptrend poised to continue" class="wp-image-25600" srcset="https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GBPUSD-Six-Months-Later.png 1280w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GBPUSD-Six-Months-Later-943×700.png 943w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GBPUSD-Six-Months-Later-768×570.png 768w, https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GBPUSD-Six-Months-Later-600×445.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px" /></a></figure>
<p>Wave 5 really did exceed the top of wave 3, but only by a pip. It reached 1.2448 on January 23rd. Wave (2/B) took the shape of a simple A-B-C zigzag, where wave B was a <a href="https://ewminteractive.com/what-are-triangles-and-what-information-they-give-us" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">triangle correction</a>. It dragged the pair down to 1.1803 on March 8th. Wave (3/C) to the upside has been in progress ever since. Last week, it touched 1.3142 before pulling back below 1.3100 as of this writing.</p>
<p>Judging from the updated chart above, the bulls seem determined to continue pushing GBPUSD higher. It looks like wave iii of 3 of (3/C) is under construction. If this analysis is correct, the pair seems poised to finally recoup its 2022 losses. <strong>Higher levels can be expected as long as it trades above 1.2591</strong>.</p>
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<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ewminteractive.com/gbpusd-uptrend-moving-planned-six-months-later">GBPUSD Uptrend Moving As Planned Six Months Later</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ewminteractive.com">EWM Interactive</a>.</p>
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