GBPUSD extends back up toward 200 day MA

<p>Like the EURUSD (<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-continues-to-trade-above-and-below-the-50-retracement-20231117/" target="_blank" rel="follow">see post here</a>), the GBPUSD moved sharply higher on Tuesday helped by the weaker CPI data. That took the pair above its 200-day moving average currently at 1.2443, and 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 1.2458. The high price of 1.2505 got the GBPUSD price within 8/9 pips of the falling 100-day moving average target (blue step line in the chart above). Sellers leaned against the key MA target. </p><p>The price of the GBPUSD rotated lower on Wednesday and into Thursday helped by lower UK CPI data, but the low stalled ahead of a modest swing level target at 1.2368 (see red numbered circles – the low price reached 1.2375).</p><p>Since then the price has been trading up and down. The high price on Thursday was able to move above the 200-day moving average but stalled just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at 1.2458 (high reached 1.2455). The low price today reached 1.2375 today (short of the 1.23684 swing level – see red numbered circles). </p><p>What next?</p><p>The price has moved up in early US trading but fell short of the 200-hour MA. Ultimately, if the buyers are to take more control, they need to get and stay above the 200-day MA. Those buyers also need to get and stay above the 38.2% retracement as well at 1.2458. </p><p>If that can be done, buyers can refocus on the falling 100-day MA at 1.25074. </p><p>For sellers, leaning against the 200-day MA keeps the sellers happy. A move above and you have to be worried that the buyers are winning (with the 38.2% a more conservative stop). If the sellers are to feel better, get and stay below 1.23684. That opens the door to 1.2336. </p><p>For the trading week, the GBPUSD is higher by 1.55% as a result of the relief from the US CPI data. Of note – off the weekly chart – the move higher has taken the price above it's 100-week moving average at 1.2398 this week. That is worth something technically for the buyers, but with the price currently at 1.2417 – and off its highs for the week of 1.2505 and below the 200 day MA and 38.2% – there might be some nervousness that the price can hold that level.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.