Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Harker says rate hikes have gone far enough

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-harker-i-believe-we-may-be-at-the-point-where-we-can-hold-rates-steady-20230808/">Fed's Harker: I believe we may be at the point where we can hold rates steady</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-harker-we-will-probably-start-cutting-rates-sometime-next-year-20230808/">Harker: We will probably start cutting rates sometime next year</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-trade-balance-655b-vs-650b-expected-20230808/">US June trade balance -65.5B vs -$65.0B expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-june-trade-balance-373b-vs-29b-expected-20230808/">Canada June trade balance -$3.73B vs -$2.9B expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-barkin-gdp-remains-solid-and-labor-market-is-remarkably-resilient-20230808/">Fed's Barkin: GDP remains solid and labor market is 'remarkably resilient'</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sells-3-year-notes-at-4398-vs-4416-wi-20230808/">US sells 3-year notes at 4.398% vs 4.416% WI</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eia-boosts-us-oil-output-forecasts-20230808/">EIA boosts US oil output forecasts</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ibdtipp-economic-optimism-403-vs-430-expected-20230808/">US IBD/TIPP economic optimism 40.3 vs 43.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-wholesale-sales-07vs-01-expected-20230808/">US June wholesale sales -0.7% vs +0.1% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/saudi-cabinet-affirms-support-for-opec-precautionary-efforts-20230808/">Saudi cabinet affirms support for OPEC+ precautionary efforts</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-nfib-small-business-optimism-index-919-vs-910-prior-20230808/">US July NFIB small business optimism index 91.9 vs 91.0 prior</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $11 to $1924</li><li>US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 4.02%</li><li>WTI crude up $0.87 to $82.80</li><li>USD leads, NZD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 19 points to 4499</li></ul><p>It was a loss for risk trades on the day but the bulls would be excused for being happy. The mood as New York entered was deeply negative after Moody's downgraded some midsize banks and because of poor Chinese trade data. Commodities and commodity currencies were particularly hard hit with oil down $2 and AUD touching below 0.6500.</p><p>Harker's comments came early in New York trade and there wasn't an immediate response from the markets but perhaps there should have been. These were likely the most-dovish comments since the hiking cycle began and came from a Fed member that's more of a centrist than a dove. </p><p>Slowly but steadily risk trades improved with AUD/USD rebounding to 0.6540, USD/CAD falling 80 pips and cable bouncing to 1.2745 from a low of 1.2686. Oil was particularly impressive as it rebounded $3 from the lows to finish solidly higher but bitcoin also put in the strongest day in nearly a month, perhaps owing to banking struggles.</p><p>The price action was solid endorsement of the BTD mentality that's increasingly ingrained in markets. A Treasury auction was strong and there doesn't appear to be any appetite to push yields higher in the face of a Fed that's shifting to neutral. Maybe that changes with a hot CPI on Thursday but we will have to wait for the numbers to find out.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.