Fed's Waller: I would say the risks to doing to much and too little are balanced

<ul><li>The data last week clearly showed the jobs market is starting to soften </li><li>Unemployment is about where it was a year ago so change isn't that big</li><li>Recessions are often caused by shocks that come out of nowhere but the data so far is pretty good (for a soft landing)</li><li>I want to be very careful to say that 'we've done the job'</li><li>I want to see 'a couple months' of data</li><li>I would say the risks to doing to much and too little are balanced</li><li>I don't think one more hike would send the economy into a recession</li><li>Data will drive whether the Fed hikes again</li><li>Recent data will allow the Fed to proceed carefully</li><li>We're starting to see the economy slow down</li><li>Treasury yields are about where the should be</li><li>The US economy is 'about 80% closed' so impacts from abroad will be smaller than for others</li><li>We've been keeping a very close eye on commercial real estate, will continue to roll over during the next 2 years or so</li><li>We're not sure about what prices CRE will be trading at in two years</li></ul><p>The 'carefully' line to me is now a code word to say that they're on the sidelines with a hawkish bias.</p><p>Waller is a hawk though and if he isn't pushing for another hike, who is? The US dollar and Treasury yields came down on his comments.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.