Fed's Evans: High prices will persist longer than I thought
Chicago Fed president Charlie Evans is speaking and says: High prices will persist longer than I thought However high prices are not persistent The Fed has to reposition itself in responseBy the end of the year will know a lot more about how persistent inflation isHopefully inflation will be recedingSupply pressures are more intense than expectedAt the end of the year will be able to make choices about more or less restrictivenessWe need to position monetary policy much closer to neutral. The US economy has momentumneutral setting for monetary policy is 2.25% to 2.50%Had tough would be at neutral by March 2023; If got there by December, that would be ok tooNot going too far, to quickly is important for optionality50BP hike is worthy of consideration, possibly highly likelyThe real discussion is how are you want rates to be positioned by the end of the yearI don't at the moment expect to see the need for restrictive policy to reign in inflation, but there is a risk Most Fed officials are happy to stay behind the curve. They know rates need to be back at neutral. They know inflation is running well above the neutral rate, but the remain tied to the meetings and steady rises.
Leave a Comment