Fed takeaway: Powell wants to keep September in play

<p>Two CPI reports, two non-farm payrolls reports.</p><p>Those are the big numbers that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted between now and the September 20 FOMC decision. The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a hike, reasoning that even if the data is warm, the Fed can wait until November. And by November, the market is optimistic that something will cool, with only a 40% chance of a hike priced in.</p><p>The overall tone from the Fed and Powell was data dependence but he did make a push to keep September in play and I wonder if more officials try to highlight that in ahead of the week ahead, then manage further commentary after the August 10 CPI report. </p><p>On net, the market isn't moving much but I see risks as tilted towards dollar strength but highly dependent on economic data. That begins with tomorrow's US reports on:</p><ul><li>Advance Q2 GDP (Atlanta Fed is at 2.4%, consensus is 1.8%)</li><li>Durable goods orders</li><li>Initial jobless claims</li><li>Advance goods trade balance</li></ul><p>For more of what's expected, see the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar" target="_blank" rel="follow">economic calendar</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.