EURUSD Technical Analysis – Key levels in play ahead of the NFP report

<p>USD</p><ul><li>The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a slight
pushback against a March rate cut.</li><li>Fed Chair Powell stressed that they want to see
more evidence of inflation falling back to target and that a rate cut in March
is not their base case. </li><li>The latest US GDP beat expectations by a big
margin.</li><li>The US PCE came mostly in line with
expectations with the Core 3-month and 6-month annualised rates falling below
the Fed’s 2% target. </li><li>The US Job Openings surprised to the upside
although the hiring and quit rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. The US
Jobless Claims, on the other hand, missed expectations for the second
consecutive week although they remain near the cycle lows. </li><li>The ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the
upside with the new orders index, which is considered a leading indicator,
jumping back into expansion. </li><li>The US Retail Sales beat expectations
across the board.</li><li>The US Consumer Confidence report came in
line with expectations, but the labour market details improved considerably.</li><li>The market now expects the first rate cut in May. </li></ul><p>EUR</p><ul><li>The ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected
maintaining the usual data dependent language.</li><li>The Eurozone CPI came in line with
expectations with the disinflationary process remaining intact.</li><li>The labour market remains historically tight with
the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.</li><li>The Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the
Manufacturing side but missed on the Services one with both measures remaining
in contraction.</li><li>The ECB members recently have been pushing back
against the aggressive rate cuts expectations leaning on June for the first
rate cut. </li><li>The market expects the ECB to cut rates in April. </li></ul><p>EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://fxgt.com/forex/">EURUSD</a> continues to drift lower with
the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. The sellers will likely
step in again around these levels to position for a drop into the 1.0723
support where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for
confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to pile in more aggressively and target the 1.10 handle. </p><p>EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has
been trading inside a falling wedge with the buyers leaning on the bottom trendline
while the sellers kept on piling in around the top trendline. A breakout to the
downside should see the sellers increasing their bearish bets and lead to a
selloff into the 1.0723 support. Conversely, a breakout to the upside is likely
to trigger a quick reversal with the price rallying into the 1.10 handle. </p><p>EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the pair yesterday doing a quick round
trip into the top trendline. We have now a minor support zone around the 1.0865
level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a breakout and target the 1.10 handle. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to gain
even more conviction and target the 1.0723 support. </p><p>Upcoming Events</p><p>Today we have the US NFP
report which is expected at 180K with estimates ranging from a low of 120K to a
high of 290K. A number out of the range will cause a strong market reaction.</p>

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.