EURUSD at Crossroads Amid Economic Signals and Central Bank Developments

The EURUSD is approaching the 1.10 level, but a decisive upward breakthrough requires a change in the yield spread of short-term bonds between U.S. Treasuries and Eurozone securities. Despite the Euro strengthening against the dollar, the spread between 2-year Treasuries and German Bunds continues to consolidate within a range:For the spread to start decreasing, incoming U.S. data must unequivocally indicate that the American economy is on a downward trajectory. So far, this hasn't happened; economic activity data has been mixed, despite signs of easing price pressures in the U.S.Since the start of the week, the dollar has remained under pressure due to increased demand for U.S. bonds, increasing the supply of cash. Federal Reserve interest rate derivatives suggest the possibility of a rate cut in June 2024. Yesterday's U.S. home sales data allowed dollar sellers to focus their efforts, as the indicator fell short of forecasts, fueling concerns that high rates are starting to have a more noticeable restraining effect on economic activity in the U.S.The dollar is likely to be sensitive to today's release of the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board and the industrial index from the Richmond Fed. Several Fed officials, including Goolsbee, Waller, Bowman, and Barr, will also provide comments today. While the market has generally ruled out a rate hike in December, it's essential to note that the recent softening of the Fed's stance was aimed at dampening the rise in Treasury bond yields, which the Fed deemed excessive and tightening on the economy. As yields eventually pulled back (the 10-year bond yield dropped about 0.5% from its peak of 5% to 4.5%), the Fed's position must also "normalize" – officials will seek to maintain flexibility, resisting premature market expectations that the central bank will start tapering. This, in turn, could be a bullish factor for the dollar. ECB President Christine Lagarde fueled expectations that the central bank would soon reconsider its bond reinvestment strategy during her speech to the European Parliament yesterday. Current hints from the ECB suggest that its pandemic bond-buying program (PEPP) will remain in the reinvestment phase until the end of 2024. However, there is a growing desire within the Governing Council to begin quantitative tightening, i.e., selling bonds from the balance sheet.Tighter financial conditions usually have a positive impact on the currency, but this specific discussion about PEPP reinvestment may have an undesirable impact on the yield differential of Eurozone peripheral countries. The yield spread between Italian BTPs and 10-year German bonds is more than 25 basis points below the threshold of 200 basis points, but there are risks for Italian bonds in 2024 as fiscal austerity policies are reintroduced in the EU, slowing down the economy. The widening spread between "safe" German bonds and Italian bonds represents a key risk for the euro next year.The Eurozone calendar is calm today, but there are several speeches by ECB representatives. Lagarde will present a pre-recorded message, and speeches by Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Joachim Nagel, and Philip Lane are also scheduled. The impact of ECB members' comments on the euro has been relatively weak, and the EURUSD exchange rate should remain almost exclusively dependent on the movements of the dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rates. There aren't many catalysts for a break above the 1.10 level this week, and instead, the pair may dip to 1.09 before resuming its upward movement.