Euro Reveals Green Shoots of Optimism

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<p><span>This article is exclusively devoted to scrutinizing the fundamental profile of the </span><span>euro</span><span>. For a detailed look at the common currency&#8217;s technical outlook and price action signals, download the complete Q1 forecast.</span></p>
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<h2>Euro Poised for a Mixed First Quarter</h2>
<p>The euro is likely to exhibit mixed fortunes in Q1 of 2024 as the currency appears on track to register gains against the US dollar but could lose out against sterling and particularly against the yen. Economic data provides green shoots of hope into 2024 if the EU can avoid a recession like it has during 2023, albeit only just.</p>
<h2>Does the Recent Lift in EU Data Suggest the Worst Is Behind Us?</h2>
<p>Sentiment and hard data show early signs of progress after rising off their respective lows. One of the most shocking data prints on the continent in 2023 was the German manufacturing PMI numbers which lead the rest of Europe on the way down. The data print is watched closely as Germany is the economic powerhouse of Europe so if the German economy is struggling, then it is likely the rest of the EU is struggling too.</p>
<p>However, German manufacturing PMI data – while still deep in contraction – has shown signs of improvement, recovering from a low of 38.8. Other surveys like the ZEW economic sentiment index measures experts’ opinions on the direction of the European economy over the next six months and has also risen off its pessimistic low back in September 2023. Furthermore, the economic surprise index has also lifted off basement levels, suggesting the EU may enjoy a period of relative stability if it can avoid a recession.</p>
<p>The December 2023 ECB staff forecasts point to a 0.8% GDP growth rate in 2024, however, we could still have two successive quarters of negative growth in that time. Another possibility is that the EU is already in recession as we await Q4 GDP results after a 0.1% contraction in Q3.</p>
<p><span>Graph Showing the Recent Uptick in EU Data Alongside </span><span>EUR/USD</span><span> (Blue)</span></p>
<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="https://a.c-dn.net/b/3cA7nG/image1.png" alt="image1.png" data-image-original-width="1912" data-image-original-height="804" width="1912" height="804" class="dfx-lazyload" style="padding-bottom: calc(804 / 1912 * 100%);" /></p>
<p><span>Source: Refinitiv, Prepared by Richard Snow</span></p>
<h2>Smart Money Reveals Slight Euro Optimism Ahead of Q1 2024</h2>
<p>According to the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds and other large financial institutions hardly reduced their euro longs over 2H 2023 while recent shorts have been pared back. The ascending histograms reveal the rising optimism around the euro as prospects of deep rate cuts in the US continue to get priced in by the market, propping up EUR/USD prospects.</p>
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<span data-stream-type="sentiment" data-market- data-value="–" data-type="long-value-info"><br />
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<span>of clients are </span><span>net long.</span> </span><br />
<span><br />
<span data-stream-type="sentiment" data-market- data-value="–" data-type="short-value-info"><br />
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<span>of clients are </span><span>net short.</span> </span>
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Change in </td>
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Longs </td>
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Shorts </td>
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OI </td>
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<td>Daily</td>
<td>-15%</td>
<td>-13%</td>
<td>-14%</td>
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<td>Weekly</td>
<td>31%</td>
<td>-24%</td>
<td>-4%</td>
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<p><span>Long and Short Euro Positions According to CoT Report 15/12/2023</span></p>
<p><img decoding="async" src="https://a.c-dn.net/b/2AuaZh/image2.png" alt="image2.png" data-image-original-width="956" data-image-original-height="718" width="956" height="718" class="dfx-lazyload" style="padding-bottom: calc(718 / 956 * 100%);" /></p>
<p><span>Source: Refinitiv, Prepared by Richard Snow</span></p>
<p>At the final central bank meeting for 2023, ECB President Christine Lagarde presented a much sterner front on monetary policy than her counterpart, and Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. Lagarde mentioned that rate cuts were not even discussed and that rates may plateau in the interim, a sentiment echoed by the ECB’s Muller and Villeroy shortly after the ECB meeting. The latest ECB forecasts suggest that inflation is only likely to return to 2% after 2025 and the governing council anticipates an uptick in inflation in the short term – potentially providing a tailwind for the euro in Q1.</p>
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<h2>Risks Stack up: Inflation, Growth, and Interest Rate Expectations</h2>
<p>Markets are expecting the ECB to cut interest rates at a similar pace and magnitude as the Fed in 2024, and should this materialise, the euro would be set to weaken across the board. Currently the market expects 150 basis points of cuts in 2024. Economic growth has really been at the heart of Europe’s problems with China’s economic woes not helping the situation. In the event the economic situation in Europe deteriorates rapidly, the ECB may have to institute those much-anticipated rate cuts instead of enjoying the ‘plateau’ where rates are expected to remain at elevated levels for some time.</p>
<p><span>Implied Basis Point (bps) Cuts Derived from Overnight Interest Swaps</span></p>
<p><img decoding="async" src="https://a.c-dn.net/b/00hdgl/image3.png" alt="image3.png" data-image-original-width="1122" data-image-original-height="228" width="1122" height="228" class="dfx-lazyload" style="padding-bottom: calc(228 / 1122 * 100%);" /></p>
<p><span>Source: Refinitiv, Prepared by Richard Snow</span></p>
<p>Powell acknowledged the degree to which tight financial conditions has weighed on price pressures, stating that this will continue to weigh on activity. It is very much a case of who will blink first and if you look at the data, the EU is more likely to succumb to economic headwinds than the US. This could see the euro hand back gains achieved towards the end of 2023.</p>
<p>Another concern is inflation where the ECB anticipate an uptick over the short term and the Fed stress that they cannot rule out another hike in response to lingering price pressures, although by their own admission, it is likely that the US is near or at peak rates.</p>
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firstName=firstNamedDefine=null,url}}("undefined"!=typeof self?self:global),!function(exports){"use strict";var FrameLoadingStyle,FetchMethod,FormSubmissionState,FormEnctype,TimingMetric,VisitState,SystemStatusCode,PageStage,__async$3=(__this,__arguments,generator)=>new Promise((resolve,reject)=>{var fulfilled=value=>{try{step(generator.next(value))}catch(e){reject(e)}},rejected=value=>{try{step(generator.throw(value))}catch(e){reject(e)}},step=x=>x.done?resolve(x.value):Promise.resolve(x.value).then(fulfilled,rejected);step((generator=generator.apply(__this,__arguments)).next())});if(void 0!==window.Reflect&&void 0!==window.customElements&&!window.customElements.polyfillWrapFlushCallback){const BuiltInHTMLElement=HTMLElement,wrapperForTheName_HTMLElement=function HTMLElement2(){return Reflect.construct(BuiltInHTMLElement,[],this.constructor)};window.HTMLElement=wrapperForTheName_HTMLElement,HTMLElement.prototype=BuiltInHTMLElement.prototype,HTMLElement.prototype.constructor=HTMLElement,Object.setPrototypeOf(HTMLElement,BuiltInHTMLElement)}function raise(errorConstructor,message,name){throw new errorConstructor("Failed to execute 'requestSubmit' on 'HTMLFormElement': "+message+".",name)}"function"!=typeof(prototype=HTMLFormElement.prototype).requestSubmit&&(prototype.requestSubmit=function(submitter){submitter?(function validateSubmitter(submitter,form){submitter instanceof HTMLElement||raise(TypeError,"parameter 1 is not of type 'HTMLElement'"),"submit"!=submitter.type&&raise(TypeError,"The specified element is not a submit button"),submitter.form!=form&&raise(DOMException,"The specified element is not owned by this form element","NotFoundError")}(submitter,this),submitter.click()):((submitter=document.createElement("input")).type="submit",submitter.hidden=!0,this.appendChild(submitter),submitter.click(),this.removeChild(submitter))});const submittersByForm=new WeakMap;function clickCaptured(event){event=function findSubmitterFromClickTarget(target){return"submit"==(null==(target=(target=target instanceof Element?target:target instanceof Node?target.parentElement:null)?target.closest("input, button"):null)?void 0:target.type)?target:null}(event.target);event&&event.form&&submittersByForm.set(event.form,event)}!function(){if(!("submitter"in Event.prototype)){let prototype=window.Event.prototype;if("SubmitEvent"in window&&/Apple Computer/.test(navigator.vendor))prototype=window.SubmitEvent.prototype;else if("SubmitEvent"in window)return;addEventListener("click",clickCaptured,!0),Object.defineProperty(prototype,"submitter",{get(){if("submit"==this.type&&this.target instanceof HTMLFormElement)return submittersByForm.get(this.target)}})}}(),(prototype=FrameLoadingStyle=FrameLoadingStyle||{}).eager="eager",prototype.lazy="lazy";class FrameElement extends HTMLElement{static get observedAttributes(){return["disabled","complete","loading","src"]}constructor(){super(),this.loaded=Promise.resolve(),this.delegate=new FrameElement.delegateConstructor(this)}connectedCallback(){this.delegate.connect()}disconnectedCallback(){this.delegate.disconnect()}reload(){return this.delegate.sourceURLReloaded()}attributeChangedCallback(name){"loading"==name?this.delegate.loadingStyleChanged():"complete"==name?this.delegate.completeChanged():"src"==name?this.delegate.sourceURLChanged():this.delegate.disabledChanged()}get src(){return this.getAttribute("src")}set src(value){value?this.setAttribute("src",value):this.removeAttribute("src")}get loading(){return function frameLoadingStyleFromString(style){{if("lazy"!==style.toLowerCase())return FrameLoadingStyle.eager;return FrameLoadingStyle.lazy}}(this.getAttribute("loading")||"")}set loading(value){value?this.setAttribute("loading",value):this.removeAttribute("loading")}get disabled(){return this.hasAttribute("disabled")}set disabled(value){value?this.setAttribute("disabled",""):this.removeAttribute("disabled")}get autoscroll(){return this.hasAttribute("autoscroll")}set autoscroll(value){value?this.setAttribute("autoscroll",""):this.removeAttribute("autoscroll")}get complete(){return!this.delegate.isLoading}get isActive(){return this.ownerDocument===document&&!this.isPreview}get isPreview(){var _a;return null==(_a=null==(_a=this.ownerDocument)?void 0:_a.documentElement)?void 0:_a.hasAttribute("data-turbo-preview")}}function expandURL(locatable){return new URL(locatable.toString(),document.baseURI)}function getAnchor(url){return url.hash?url.hash.slice(1):(url=url.href.match(/#(.*)$/))?url[1]:void 0}function getAction(form,submitter){return expandURL((null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("formaction"))||form.getAttribute("action")||form.action)}function getExtension(url){return(function getLastPathComponent(url){return function getPathComponents(url){return url.pathname.split("/").slice(1)}(url).slice(-1)[0]}(url).match(/.[^.]*$/)||[])[0]||""}function isPrefixedBy(baseURL,url){url=function getPrefix(url){return function addTrailingSlash(value){return value.endsWith("/")?value:value+"/"}(url.origin+url.pathname)}(url);return baseURL.href===expandURL(url).href||baseURL.href.startsWith(url)}function locationIsVisitable(location2,rootLocation){return isPrefixedBy(location2,rootLocation)&&function isHTML(url){return!!getExtension(url).match(/^(?:|.(?:htm|html|xhtml|php))$/)}(location2)}function getRequestURL(url){var anchor=getAnchor(url);return null!=anchor?url.href.slice(0,-(anchor.length+1)):url.href}function toCacheKey(url){return getRequestURL(url)}class FetchResponse{constructor(response){this.response=response}get succeeded(){return this.response.ok}get failed(){return!this.succeeded}get clientError(){return 400<=this.statusCode&#038;&#038;this.statusCode<=499}get serverError(){return 500<=this.statusCode&#038;&#038;this.statusCode<=599}get redirected(){return this.response.redirected}get location(){return expandURL(this.response.url)}get isHTML(){return this.contentType&#038;&#038;this.contentType.match(/^(?:text/([^s;,]+)?html|application/xhtml+xml)/)}get statusCode(){return this.response.status}get contentType(){return this.header("Content-Type")}get responseText(){return this.response.clone().text()}get responseHTML(){return this.isHTML?this.response.clone().text():Promise.resolve(void 0)}header(name){return this.response.headers.get(name)}}function activateScriptElement(element){var createdScriptElement,cspNonce;return"false"==element.getAttribute("data-turbo-eval")?element:(createdScriptElement=document.createElement("script"),(cspNonce=getMetaContent("csp-nonce"))&#038;&#038;(createdScriptElement.nonce=cspNonce),createdScriptElement.textContent=element.textContent,createdScriptElement.async=!1,function copyElementAttributes(destinationElement,sourceElement){for(var{name,value}of sourceElement.attributes)destinationElement.setAttribute(name,value)}(createdScriptElement,element),createdScriptElement)}function dispatch(eventName,{target,cancelable,detail}={}){eventName=new CustomEvent(eventName,{cancelable:cancelable,bubbles:!0,composed:!0,detail:detail});return(target&#038;&#038;target.isConnected?target:document.documentElement).dispatchEvent(eventName),eventName}function nextAnimationFrame(){return new Promise(resolve=>requestAnimationFrame(()=>resolve()))}function parseHTMLDocument(html=""){return(new DOMParser).parseFromString(html,"text/html")}function unindent(strings,…values){strings=function interpolate(strings,values){return strings.reduce((result,string,i)=>{return result+string+(null==values[i]?"":values[i])},"")}(strings,values).replace(/^
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isAction(action){return"advance"==action||"replace"==action||"restore"==action}(elements)?elements:null}function getMetaElement(name){return document.querySelector(`meta[name="${name}"]`)}function getMetaContent(name){name=getMetaElement(name);return name&&name.content}function findClosestRecursively(element,selector){if(element instanceof Element)return element.closest(selector)||findClosestRecursively(element.assignedSlot||(null==(element=element.getRootNode())?void 0:element.host),selector)}(prototype=FetchMethod=FetchMethod||{})[prototype.get=0]="get",prototype[prototype.post=1]="post",prototype[prototype.put=2]="put",prototype[prototype.patch=3]="patch",prototype[prototype.delete=4]="delete";class FetchRequest{constructor(delegate,method,location2,body=new URLSearchParams,target=null){this.abortController=new AbortController,this.resolveRequestPromise=_value=>{},this.delegate=delegate,this.method=method,this.headers=this.defaultHeaders,this.body=body,this.url=location2,this.target=target}get location(){return this.url}get params(){return this.url.searchParams}get entries(){return this.body?Array.from(this.body.entries()):[]}cancel(){this.abortController.abort()}perform(){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){var fetchOptions=this["fetchOptions"];this.delegate.prepareRequest(this),yield this.allowRequestToBeIntercepted(fetchOptions);try{this.delegate.requestStarted(this);var response=yield fetch(this.url.href,fetchOptions);return yield this.receive(response)}catch(error){if("AbortError"!==error.name)throw this.willDelegateErrorHandling(error)&&this.delegate.requestErrored(this,error),error}finally{this.delegate.requestFinished(this)}})}receive(response){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){var fetchResponse=new FetchResponse(response);return dispatch("turbo:before-fetch-response",{cancelable:!0,detail:{fetchResponse:fetchResponse},target:this.target}).defaultPrevented?this.delegate.requestPreventedHandlingResponse(this,fetchResponse):fetchResponse.succeeded?this.delegate.requestSucceededWithResponse(this,fetchResponse):this.delegate.requestFailedWithResponse(this,fetchResponse),fetchResponse})}get fetchOptions(){var _a;return{method:FetchMethod[this.method].toUpperCase(),credentials:"same-origin",headers:this.headers,redirect:"follow",body:this.isSafe?null:this.body,signal:this.abortSignal,referrer:null==(_a=this.delegate.referrer)?void 0:_a.href}}get defaultHeaders(){return{Accept:"text/html, application/xhtml+xml"}}get isSafe(){return this.method===FetchMethod.get}get abortSignal(){return this.abortController.signal}acceptResponseType(mimeType){this.headers.Accept=[mimeType,this.headers.Accept].join(", ")}allowRequestToBeIntercepted(fetchOptions){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){var requestInterception=new Promise(resolve=>this.resolveRequestPromise=resolve);dispatch("turbo:before-fetch-request",{cancelable:!0,detail:{fetchOptions:fetchOptions,url:this.url,resume:this.resolveRequestPromise},target:this.target}).defaultPrevented&&(yield requestInterception)})}willDelegateErrorHandling(error){return!dispatch("turbo:fetch-request-error",{target:this.target,cancelable:!0,detail:{request:this,error:error}}).defaultPrevented}}class AppearanceObserver{constructor(delegate,element){this.started=!1,this.intersect=entries=>{entries=entries.slice(-1)[0];null!=entries&&entries.isIntersecting&&this.delegate.elementAppearedInViewport(this.element)},this.delegate=delegate,this.element=element,this.intersectionObserver=new IntersectionObserver(this.intersect)}start(){this.started||(this.started=!0,this.intersectionObserver.observe(this.element))}stop(){this.started&&(this.started=!1,this.intersectionObserver.unobserve(this.element))}}class StreamMessage{static wrap(message){return"string"==typeof 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fragment}(fragment)}}StreamMessage.contentType="text/vnd.turbo-stream.html",(prototype=FormSubmissionState=FormSubmissionState||{})[prototype.initialized=0]="initialized",prototype[prototype.requesting=1]="requesting",prototype[prototype.waiting=2]="waiting",prototype[prototype.receiving=3]="receiving",prototype[prototype.stopping=4]="stopping",prototype[prototype.stopped=5]="stopped",(prototype=FormEnctype=FormEnctype||{}).urlEncoded="application/x-www-form-urlencoded",prototype.multipart="multipart/form-data",prototype.plain="text/plain";class FormSubmission{static confirmMethod(message,_element,_submitter){return Promise.resolve(confirm(message))}constructor(delegate,formElement,submitter,mustRedirect=!1){this.state=FormSubmissionState.initialized,this.delegate=delegate,this.formElement=formElement,this.submitter=submitter,this.formData=function buildFormData(formElement,submitter){var formElement=new FormData(formElement),name=null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("name"),submitter=null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("value");name&&formElement.append(name,submitter||"");return formElement}(formElement,submitter),this.location=expandURL(this.action),this.method==FetchMethod.get&&function mergeFormDataEntries(url,entries){var searchParams=new URLSearchParams;for(var[name,value]of entries)value instanceof File||searchParams.append(name,value);url.search=searchParams.toString()}(this.location,[…this.body.entries()]),this.fetchRequest=new FetchRequest(this,this.method,this.location,this.body,this.formElement),this.mustRedirect=mustRedirect}get method(){var _a;return function fetchMethodFromString(method){switch(method.toLowerCase()){case"get":return FetchMethod.get;case"post":return FetchMethod.post;case"put":return FetchMethod.put;case"patch":return FetchMethod.patch;case"delete":return FetchMethod.delete}}(((null==(_a=this.submitter)?void 0:_a.getAttribute("formmethod"))||this.formElement.getAttribute("method")||"").toLowerCase())||FetchMethod.get}get action(){var _a,formElementAction="string"==typeof this.formElement.action?this.formElement.action:null;return null!=(_a=this.submitter)&&_a.hasAttribute("formaction")?this.submitter.getAttribute("formaction")||"":this.formElement.getAttribute("action")||formElementAction||""}get body(){return this.enctype==FormEnctype.urlEncoded||this.method==FetchMethod.get?new URLSearchParams(this.stringFormData):this.formData}get enctype(){var _a;return function formEnctypeFromString(encoding){switch(encoding.toLowerCase()){case FormEnctype.multipart:return FormEnctype.multipart;case FormEnctype.plain:return FormEnctype.plain;default:return FormEnctype.urlEncoded}}((null==(_a=this.submitter)?void 0:_a.getAttribute("formenctype"))||this.formElement.enctype)}get isSafe(){return this.fetchRequest.isSafe}get stringFormData(){return[…this.formData].reduce((entries,[name,value])=>entries.concat("string"==typeof value?[[name,value]]:[]),[])}start(){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){var{initialized,requesting}=FormSubmissionState,confirmationMessage=getAttribute("data-turbo-confirm",this.submitter,this.formElement);if("string"==typeof confirmationMessage&&!(yield FormSubmission.confirmMethod(confirmationMessage,this.formElement,this.submitter)))return;if(this.state==initialized)return this.state=requesting,this.fetchRequest.perform()})}stop(){var{stopping,stopped}=FormSubmissionState;if(this.state!=stopping&&this.state!=stopped)return this.state=stopping,this.fetchRequest.cancel(),!0}prepareRequest(request){var token;request.isSafe||(token=function getCookieValue(cookieName){{var cookie;return null!=cookieName&&(cookie=(document.cookie?document.cookie.split("; "):[]).find(cookie2=>cookie2.startsWith(cookieName)))&&(cookie=cookie.split("=").slice(1).join("="))?decodeURIComponent(cookie):void 0}}(getMetaContent("csrf-param"))||getMetaContent("csrf-token"))&&(request.headers["X-CSRF-Token"]=token),this.requestAcceptsTurboStreamResponse(request)&&request.acceptResponseType(StreamMessage.contentType)}requestStarted(_request){var _a;this.state=FormSubmissionState.waiting,null!=(_a=this.submitter)&&_a.setAttribute("disabled",""),this.setSubmitsWith(),dispatch("turbo:submit-start",{target:this.formElement,detail:{formSubmission:this}}),this.delegate.formSubmissionStarted(this)}requestPreventedHandlingResponse(request,response){this.result={success:response.succeeded,fetchResponse:response}}requestSucceededWithResponse(request,response){response.clientError||response.serverError?this.delegate.formSubmissionFailedWithResponse(this,response):this.requestMustRedirect(request)&&function responseSucceededWithoutRedirect(response){return 200==response.statusCode&&!response.redirected}(response)?(request=new Error("Form responses must redirect to another location"),this.delegate.formSubmissionErrored(this,request)):(this.state=FormSubmissionState.receiving,this.result={success:!0,fetchResponse:response},this.delegate.formSubmissionSucceededWithResponse(this,response))}requestFailedWithResponse(request,response){this.result={success:!1,fetchResponse:response},this.delegate.formSubmissionFailedWithResponse(this,response)}requestErrored(request,error){this.result={success:!1,error:error},this.delegate.formSubmissionErrored(this,error)}requestFinished(_request){var _a;this.state=FormSubmissionState.stopped,null!=(_a=this.submitter)&&_a.removeAttribute("disabled"),this.resetSubmitterText(),dispatch("turbo:submit-end",{target:this.formElement,detail:Object.assign({formSubmission:this},this.result)}),this.delegate.formSubmissionFinished(this)}setSubmitsWith(){var input;this.submitter&&this.submitsWith&&(this.submitter.matches("button")?(this.originalSubmitText=this.submitter.innerHTML,this.submitter.innerHTML=this.submitsWith):this.submitter.matches("input")&&(input=this.submitter,this.originalSubmitText=input.value,input.value=this.submitsWith))}resetSubmitterText(){this.submitter&&this.originalSubmitText&&(this.submitter.matches("button")?this.submitter.innerHTML=this.originalSubmitText:this.submitter.matches("input")&&(this.submitter.value=this.originalSubmitText))}requestMustRedirect(request){return!request.isSafe&&this.mustRedirect}requestAcceptsTurboStreamResponse(request){return!request.isSafe||function hasAttribute(attributeName,…elements){return elements.some(element=>element&&element.hasAttribute(attributeName))}("data-turbo-stream",this.submitter,this.formElement)}get submitsWith(){var _a;return null==(_a=this.submitter)?void 0:_a.getAttribute("data-turbo-submits-with")}}class Snapshot{constructor(element){this.element=element}get activeElement(){return this.element.ownerDocument.activeElement}get children(){return[…this.element.children]}hasAnchor(anchor){return null!=this.getElementForAnchor(anchor)}getElementForAnchor(anchor){return anchor?this.element.querySelector(`[id='${anchor}'], a[name="${anchor}"]`):null}get isConnected(){return this.element.isConnected}get firstAutofocusableElement(){for(const element of this.element.querySelectorAll("[autofocus]"))if(null==element.closest("[inert], :disabled, [hidden], details:not([open]), dialog:not([open])"))return element;return null}get permanentElements(){return queryPermanentElementsAll(this.element)}getPermanentElementById(id){return getPermanentElementById(this.element,id)}getPermanentElementMapForSnapshot(snapshot){var permanentElementMap={};for(const currentPermanentElement of this.permanentElements){var id=currentPermanentElement["id"],newPermanentElement=snapshot.getPermanentElementById(id);newPermanentElement&&(permanentElementMap[id]=[currentPermanentElement,newPermanentElement])}return permanentElementMap}}function getPermanentElementById(node,id){return node.querySelector(`#${id}[data-turbo-permanent]`)}function queryPermanentElementsAll(node){return node.querySelectorAll("[id][data-turbo-permanent]")}class FormSubmitObserver{constructor(delegate,eventTarget){this.started=!1,this.submitCaptured=()=>{this.eventTarget.removeEventListener("submit",this.submitBubbled,!1),this.eventTarget.addEventListener("submit",this.submitBubbled,!1)},this.submitBubbled=event=>{var form,submitter;event.defaultPrevented||(form=event.target instanceof HTMLFormElement?event.target:void 0,submitter=event.submitter||void 0,form&&function submissionDoesNotDismissDialog(form,submitter){submitter=(null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("formmethod"))||form.getAttribute("method");return"dialog"!=submitter}(form,submitter)&&function submissionDoesNotTargetIFrame(form,submitter){{if(null!=submitter&&submitter.hasAttribute("formtarget")||form.hasAttribute("target")){submitter=(null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("formtarget"))||form.target;for(const element of document.getElementsByName(submitter))if(element instanceof HTMLIFrameElement)return}return 1}}(form,submitter)&&this.delegate.willSubmitForm(form,submitter)&&(event.preventDefault(),event.stopImmediatePropagation(),this.delegate.formSubmitted(form,submitter)))},this.delegate=delegate,this.eventTarget=eventTarget}start(){this.started||(this.eventTarget.addEventListener("submit",this.submitCaptured,!0),this.started=!0)}stop(){this.started&&(this.eventTarget.removeEventListener("submit",this.submitCaptured,!0),this.started=!1)}}class View{constructor(delegate,element){this.resolveRenderPromise=_value=>{},this.resolveInterceptionPromise=_value=>{},this.delegate=delegate,this.element=element}scrollToAnchor(anchor){anchor=this.snapshot.getElementForAnchor(anchor);anchor?(this.scrollToElement(anchor),this.focusElement(anchor)):this.scrollToPosition({x:0,y:0})}scrollToAnchorFromLocation(location2){this.scrollToAnchor(getAnchor(location2))}scrollToElement(element){element.scrollIntoView()}focusElement(element){element instanceof HTMLElement&&(element.hasAttribute("tabindex")?element.focus():(element.setAttribute("tabindex","-1"),element.focus(),element.removeAttribute("tabindex")))}scrollToPosition({x,y}){this.scrollRoot.scrollTo(x,y)}scrollToTop(){this.scrollToPosition({x:0,y:0})}get scrollRoot(){return window}render(renderer){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){var{isPreview,shouldRender,newSnapshot:snapshot}=renderer;if(shouldRender)try{this.renderPromise=new Promise(resolve=>this.resolveRenderPromise=resolve),this.renderer=renderer,yield this.prepareToRenderSnapshot(renderer);var renderInterception=new Promise(resolve=>this.resolveInterceptionPromise=resolve),options={resume:this.resolveInterceptionPromise,render:this.renderer.renderElement};this.delegate.allowsImmediateRender(snapshot,options)||(yield renderInterception),yield this.renderSnapshot(renderer),this.delegate.viewRenderedSnapshot(snapshot,isPreview),this.delegate.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(this.element),this.finishRenderingSnapshot(renderer)}finally{delete this.renderer,this.resolveRenderPromise(void 0),delete this.renderPromise}else this.invalidate(renderer.reloadReason)})}invalidate(reason){this.delegate.viewInvalidated(reason)}prepareToRenderSnapshot(renderer){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){this.markAsPreview(renderer.isPreview),yield renderer.prepareToRender()})}markAsPreview(isPreview){isPreview?this.element.setAttribute("data-turbo-preview",""):this.element.removeAttribute("data-turbo-preview")}renderSnapshot(renderer){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){yield renderer.render()})}finishRenderingSnapshot(renderer){renderer.finishRendering()}}class FrameView extends View{missing(){this.element.innerHTML='<strong>Content missing</strong>'}get snapshot(){return new Snapshot(this.element)}}class LinkInterceptor{constructor(delegate,element){this.clickBubbled=event=>{this.respondsToEventTarget(event.target)?this.clickEvent=event:delete this.clickEvent},this.linkClicked=event=>{this.clickEvent&&this.respondsToEventTarget(event.target)&&event.target instanceof Element&&this.delegate.shouldInterceptLinkClick(event.target,event.detail.url,event.detail.originalEvent)&&(this.clickEvent.preventDefault(),event.preventDefault(),this.delegate.linkClickIntercepted(event.target,event.detail.url,event.detail.originalEvent)),delete this.clickEvent},this.willVisit=_event=>{delete this.clickEvent},this.delegate=delegate,this.element=element}start(){this.element.addEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled),document.addEventListener("turbo:click",this.linkClicked),document.addEventListener("turbo:before-visit",this.willVisit)}stop(){this.element.removeEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled),document.removeEventListener("turbo:click",this.linkClicked),document.removeEventListener("turbo:before-visit",this.willVisit)}respondsToEventTarget(target){target=target instanceof Element?target:target instanceof Node?target.parentElement:null;return target&&target.closest("turbo-frame, html")==this.element}}class LinkClickObserver{constructor(delegate,eventTarget){this.started=!1,this.clickCaptured=()=>{this.eventTarget.removeEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled,!1),this.eventTarget.addEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled,!1)},this.clickBubbled=event=>{var target,location2;event instanceof MouseEvent&&this.clickEventIsSignificant(event)&&(target=event.composedPath&&event.composedPath()[0]||event.target,(target=this.findLinkFromClickTarget(target))&&function doesNotTargetIFrame(anchor){{if(anchor.hasAttribute("target"))for(const element of document.getElementsByName(anchor.target))if(element instanceof HTMLIFrameElement)return;return 1}}(target)&&(location2=this.getLocationForLink(target),this.delegate.willFollowLinkToLocation(target,location2,event)&&(event.preventDefault(),this.delegate.followedLinkToLocation(target,location2))))},this.delegate=delegate,this.eventTarget=eventTarget}start(){this.started||(this.eventTarget.addEventListener("click",this.clickCaptured,!0),this.started=!0)}stop(){this.started&&(this.eventTarget.removeEventListener("click",this.clickCaptured,!0),this.started=!1)}clickEventIsSignificant(event){return!(event.target&&event.target.isContentEditable||event.defaultPrevented||1<event.which||event.altKey||event.ctrlKey||event.metaKey||event.shiftKey)}findLinkFromClickTarget(target){return findClosestRecursively(target,"a[href]:not([target^=_]):not([download])")}getLocationForLink(link){return expandURL(link.getAttribute("href")||"")}} FormLinkClickObserver{constructor(delegate,element){this.delegate=delegate,this.linkInterceptor=new LinkClickObserver(this,element)}start(){this.linkInterceptor.start()}stop(){this.linkInterceptor.stop()}willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2,originalEvent){return this.delegate.willSubmitFormLinkToLocation(link,location2,originalEvent)&#038;&#038;link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-method")}followedLinkToLocation(link,location2){const form=document.createElement("form");var name,value;for([name,value]of location2.searchParams)form.append(Object.assign(document.createElement("input"),{type:"hidden",name:name,value:value}));var action=Object.assign(location2,{search:""}),action=(form.setAttribute("data-turbo","true"),form.setAttribute("action",action.href),form.setAttribute("hidden",""),link.getAttribute("data-turbo-method")),action=(action&#038;&#038;form.setAttribute("method",action),link.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame")),action=(action&#038;&#038;form.setAttribute("data-turbo-frame",action),getVisitAction(link)),action=(action&#038;&#038;form.setAttribute("data-turbo-action",action),link.getAttribute("data-turbo-confirm")),action=(action&#038;&#038;form.setAttribute("data-turbo-confirm",action),link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-stream"));action&#038;&#038;form.setAttribute("data-turbo-stream",""),this.delegate.submittedFormLinkToLocation(link,location2,form),document.body.appendChild(form),form.addEventListener("turbo:submit-end",()=>form.remove(),{once:!0}),requestAnimationFrame(()=>form.requestSubmit())}}class Bardo{static preservingPermanentElements(delegate,permanentElementMap,callback){return __async$3(this,null,function*(){var bardo=new this(delegate,permanentElementMap);bardo.enter(),yield callback(),bardo.leave()})}constructor(delegate,permanentElementMap){this.delegate=delegate,this.permanentElementMap=permanentElementMap}enter(){for(const id in this.permanentElementMap){var[currentPermanentElement,newPermanentElement]=this.permanentElementMap[id];this.delegate.enteringBardo(currentPermanentElement,newPermanentElement),this.replaceNewPermanentElementWithPlaceholder(newPermanentElement)}}leave(){for(const id in this.permanentElementMap){var[currentPermanentElement]=this.permanentElementMap[id];this.replaceCurrentPermanentElementWithClone(currentPermanentElement),this.replacePlaceholderWithPermanentElement(currentPermanentElement),this.delegate.leavingBardo(currentPermanentElement)}}replaceNewPermanentElementWithPlaceholder(permanentElement){var placeholder=function createPlaceholderForPermanentElement(permanentElement){var element=document.createElement("meta");return element.setAttribute("name","turbo-permanent-placeholder"),element.setAttribute("content",permanentElement.id),element}(permanentElement);permanentElement.replaceWith(placeholder)}replaceCurrentPermanentElementWithClone(permanentElement){var clone=permanentElement.cloneNode(!0);permanentElement.replaceWith(clone)}replacePlaceholderWithPermanentElement(permanentElement){var placeholder=this.getPlaceholderById(permanentElement.id);null!=placeholder&&placeholder.replaceWith(permanentElement)}getPlaceholderById(id){return this.placeholders.find(element=>element.content==id)}get placeholders(){return[…document.querySelectorAll("meta[name=turbo-permanent-placeholder][content]")]}}class Renderer{constructor(

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