Economic calendar in Asia 03 July 2023 – China June Manufacturing PMI due

<p>It's a packed data agenda for the session ahead, with most of the focus on the privately surveyed manufacturing PMI from China for June. </p><p>China has two primary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&amp;P Global.</p><p>The official PMI survey was out last week, for manufacturing and services. Manufacturing remains wallowing on the doldrums in contraction under 50:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-june-pmis-manufacturing-490-expected-490-services-532-expected-537-20230630/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">China June PMIs: Manufacturing 49.0 (expected 49.0) &amp; Services 53.2 (expected 53.7)</a></li></ul><p>While the NBS' PMIs cover large and state-owned companies, the Caixin PMI survey covers more small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China's private sector.
Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey. Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China's manufacturing sector.</p><p>The Caixin survey is expected to show the manufacturing sector edging into expansion. </p><p>- </p><p>You'll also notice a monthly inflation reading from Australia. For June. Last week we for the May monthly inflation print:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-monthly-cpi-february-56-yy-vs-expected-61-20230628/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Australian monthly CPI (May) 5.6% y/y (vs. expected 6.1%)</a></li></ul><p>The May reading was from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Today's is from a private survey. The ABS survey of monthly inflation is a new indicator, the TD/MI indicator has been around a lot longer and is a respected survey. Its also ahead of the ABS survey, that is we'll get the June reading today. Inflation in Australia is still elevated. The Reserve Bank of Australia meet Tuesday, 4 July and there is a strong prospect of a cash rate hike.</p><p>Indeed, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock spoke the week before last, and she was hawkish indeed:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-dep-gov-bullock-says-employment-and-economy-need-top-grow-below-trend-for-a-while-20230620/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBA Dep Gov Bullock says employment and economy need to grow below trend for a while</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-dep-gov-bullock-says-higher-rates-are-the-only-tool-the-rba-has-to-curb-inflation-20230620/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBA Dep Gov Bullock says higher rates are the only tool the RBA has to curb inflation</a></li></ul><p>Australia has 4 large commercial banks, a sampling of them shows analysts are tipping a hike tomorrow from the RBA:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-still-expect-a-rate-rise-from-the-rba-next-week-a-25bp-cash-rate-hike-20230628/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike</a><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/anz-expects-25bps-rate-hike-from-rba-on-tues-and-scope-for-audnzd-rally-next-week-20230630/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ANZ expects 25bps rate hike from RBA on Tues and scope for AUD/NZD rally next week</a></li></ul></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/after-australias-better-cpi-data-yesterday-nab-still-expect-a-july-rba-rate-hike-20230628/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">After Australia's better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/westpac-reaffirms-its-forecst-for-a-25bp-reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-hike-on-july-4-20230630/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Westpac reaffirms its forecst for a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on July 4</a></li></ul><p align="left">
This
snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">access
it here</a>.</p><ul><li>
The
times in the left-most column are GMT. </li><li>
The
numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous
month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median
expected.</li></ul><p align="left">
I’ve
noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity
of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.