ECB's Knot: A rate cut in the first half of 2024 rather unlikely based on current info

<ul><li>We have to see how wages data develops, will see data around the middle of 2024</li><li>Optimal path for rates closer to market pricing at cut-off date than now</li><li>Any structural bond portfolio should be as small as possible</li></ul><p>The market is pricing in a 50/50 probability of a cut in March with 100 bps of cuts priced in for the July meeting.</p><p>Ultimately, the market is saying that the ECB will decide that it can ease a bit without getting too loose and the market is saying that eurozone data is going to crumble.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.