ECB monetary policy decision the highlight of the agenda today

<p>The dollar is softer in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting yesterday, as it appears we might have seen the last rate hike come in by the Fed. I shared some added thoughts on that <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-bruised-after-the-fed-policy-decision-overnight-20230727/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>.</p><p>As much as the dollar is lower, it's not that bad as this just mostly eats into the rebound from last week. USD/JPY though is still building on the downside push this week, falling back below 140.00 currently amid fears that the BOJ could pull off a surprise and tweak policy on Friday.</p><p>The aussie and kiwi are leading gains today, helped out by a better risk mood but also as China continues to defend the yuan on the week. AUD/USD is up 0.9% to 0.6815 currently as buyers build on the bounce from the 200-day moving average on Monday but key resistance is still seen closer towards 0.6900 in the bigger picture.</p><p>Looking ahead today, markets are likely to stick with the mood from overnight post-Fed as it is looking like a more straightforward one. The ECB is the highlight of the agenda and a 25 bps rate hike is very much a certainty today. And much like Powel's presser, I would expect Lagarde to keep the door open for September and allude to being data dependent again. If the euro is counting on Lagarde pre-committing to a September move, it will be disappointed in my view.</p><p>0600 GMT – Germany August GfK consumer confidence1000 GMT – UK July CBI retailing reported sales1215 GMT – ECB announces July monetary policy decision1245 GMT – ECB president Lagarde press conference</p><p>That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.