Downside Risks for Aussie As Trade Surplus Shrinks

Aussie Trade Data Fuels ConcernsData overnight showed that the Australian trade surplus narrowed sharply last month. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a trade balance of AUD 8.04 billion last month, down from the prior month’s AUD 10.27 billion figure and below the AUD 10.05 billion the market was looking for. Concerns over the health of the Australian economy have been a key focus for traders recently. The RBA opted to keep rates on hold this month, citing downside risks to the economy.Exports Down – China FlaggingElevated inflation and tighter financial conditions are having a significant downside impact on households and businesses. Another key factor here is the downturn in the Chinese economy. With Australia’s biggest trading partner seeing a strong drop of fin activity this year, imports from Australia have fallen markedly. Looking at the July goods/services export figure alone this printed -2% in July, reflecting the loss of trade.Commodities Prices StrugglingCommodities prices have also been having a hard time of it recently, adding to Australia’s trade woes. With the US Dollar rallying firmly over the last month, the prices of key Australian exports have turned lower. Looking ahead, AUD looks likely to remain pressured lower near-term particularly if the current USD rally continues.  Technical ViewsAUDUSDThe sell off in the Aussie from the .6857 highs has seen the market breaking down heavily. Price is now holding below the recently broken .6520 level and, while this level holds as resistance, the focus is on a further push lower in line with bearish momentum studies. Worth noting, we are seeing some bullish divergence on those studies. However, for now, focus remains on a test of .6275 next.