Deutsche Bank's assessment is that "A US recession remains more likely than not."

<p>Deutsche Bank think a US recession is more likely than the hoped-for "soft landing", citing the risk the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tightening interest rates too much. </p><ul><li>
"Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the
Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than
too little," </li><li>a "soft landing" can still be achieved but its still likely that the Fed needs to "depress demand below
potential" to bring inflation to target</li></ul><p>DB say they expect the data to show the US economy under greater pressure early in 2024. </p><p> In contrast to Deutsche Bank, this from GS earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-have-revised-the-probability-of-a-us-recession-even-lower-to-15-from-20-20230905/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Goldman Sachs further
reduced their 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from a
previous 20% estimate.</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.