DAX 40 & DOW JONES: Weekly analysis 21st – 25th August

<h2>Market movers</h2>
<p>Last week’s FED minutes, Fitch’s potential downgrade of certain US banks, and the increase of the 10-year US yields provided additional reasons for the ongoing market correction with major flash crashes until Friday’s session.</p>
<p>The 10-year US treasury yield jumped to 4.31%, reaching the highest level since 2008. July inflation exceeded expectations, paired with a solid NFP report and the aggressive July FOMC minutes. All these factors together forced markets to seriously face the possibility of a further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>The upcoming week will be interesting for the macroeconomic and corporate data.</p>
<p>The most important event is the Economic Policy Symposium 2023, held from 24 to 26 August. The event will bring together central bankers, economists, and economic policy experts from around the globe. Statements by Fed Chair Powell, ECB’s Christine Lagarde as well as other central bankers will be monitored closely for hints of a shift in policy. If the Fed is looking to reorient investors, this is often the platform where it happens.</p>
<p>Tuesday we will evaluate the numbers for the existing homes sales and the homes sales in the US, as well as building permits issued. On Wednesday, PMI data could provide fresh clues about the health of the eurozone economy after July’s PMI showed that business activity contracted again and as the service sector continued to outperform manufacturing. The German PMI data should also be followed.</p>
<p>On Thursday we will have the initial US jobless claims in the US. On Friday it will be the turn for the German GDP and the IFO Business Confidence data.</p>
<p>On the earnings side, there are high hopes and expectations for Nvidia, which will release its data on Wednesday, August 23rd. Analysts raised further their price target for the company, heightening expectations ahead of earnings. Wall Street is expecting a 66% surge in quarterly revenue to $11.1B, this is ahead of the $11B forecast by the firm.</p>
<p>This week the focus will be on Lowe’s, Coty, Dollar Tree, Macy’s, and Kohls which are expected to release earnings data. The figures could shed more light on the health of the consumer as inflation cools and interest rates rise</p>
<p>Finally, the Evergrande affair in China should be monitored, as it is once again having difficulties in paying its bonds. This event raised concerns among market participants, given that the real estate sector accounts for a quarter of China’s GDP. The macroeconomic data of recent weeks highlight significant challenges in the recovery of the Chinese economy; as such, this scenario could lead to further sell-offs in the global equity market.</p>
<h2>Weekly analysis and market scenarios for DAX and Dow Jones</h2>
<p>After weeks of uncertainty, the quotations broke and accelerated downwards. Not since March 2023 has such an essential weekly decline been observed, and for the American stock markets, this decline may not be over yet. All the conditions are in place for a bearish acceleration.</p>
<p>From the lows of the week of March 13, the rise of the international stock markets has been incredible. The thesis that supported a lead to a very strong climb until August 4th, the annual setup, was confirmed with almost millimeter precision. Everything occurred as we predicted, and between September 2022 and March 2023, all international markets posted their lows for the moment (which could also be the ten-year lows).</p>
<p>The bearish swing observed last week could lead to a drawdown of at least 7/10% from the pre-crisis peak. Currently, the trajectory appears to align with the previously mentioned scenario, and it is crucial to closely monitor its evolution. The upcoming key dates are at the end of the month, and it will be important to observe whether we will reach the monthly low next week.</p>
<p>Beyond the rhetoric of the debt ceiling, the recession, and the banking crisis, only a decisive flip in sentiment could lead to a trend reversal. Earnings of US mega caps have shown off and many other companies are also ramping up the increase in revenue.</p>
<p>The average annual returns on international equities (World Stock Exchanges based on GDP) are around 11%. Current rates in America are more than 5%. With a projection for 10, 15, and 20 years, equity markets always beat bond markets. Therefore, we should be at the starting point of a 10-year bull market.</p>
<p>Rising interest rates won’t directly and inevitably lead to a recession. As long as these hikes are balanced with economic growth, there should be no danger. On the other hand, an exaggerated rate cut could drag down the markets for a long time.</p>
<p>The likely lows in October 2022 will have a high probability of remaining so for many years. They could represent the lows of the entire decade. Despite some short-term overbought, the markets are unstoppable and will be so for a long time. Here is why.</p>
<p>We have highlighted several times that stock prices tend to move at least 6/9 months before the economic cycle. For this reason, during the final part of 2022, the markets would have posted a significant bottom between June and October and then taken off again for the long term. The prices marked during the year had discounted the most unfavourable geopolitical and geo-economic conditions.</p>
<p>During 2023 we expect the following pattern to emerge: the low should be posted in January or during Q1 2023, and the high during Q4. Average market returns up to 20-25%.</p>
<p>As always, we will confirm the annual forecast from time to time.</p>
<p>Last week, the S&amp;P500 index posted a flashy decline, following an attempt to breach the resistence at 4508-4514-4520, and closing Friday in the 4381 area.</p>
<p>Supports 4368-4355 confirmed. Below it, downward accelerations are possible, with the first target in the 4304 mark and filling the gap of mid-June. Confirmed the 4274-4263, and if these levels are to have trespassed, it will bring a downward acceleration toward 4249, then 4227-4223, the whole zone where volumes managed to concentrate in recent weeks.</p>
<p>Below 4223, there are high chances for further drawdowns targeting the supports at 4204 and 4196-4190. 4177-4170 is still a critical mark.</p>
<p>Confirmed the supports in 4153, 4144-4140, 4124-4117, and 4100 areas. The loss of the latter support could lead to heavy drawdowns</p>
<p>Confirmed the supports in 3930-3905-3899, 3945-3957-3961, 3979, 3993-4000, 4032-4043 areas. The 4064-4075 areas remain a crucial support.</p>
<p>3890-3879 is still a critical zone because, in this specific area, buyers managed to concentrate. Additional support in 3864-3857 areas. Another intermediate zone is located in the 3822-3814 area.</p>
<p>Support in the 3808-3798 zone was confirmed, below which prices could start a new downward spiral.</p>
<p>Confirmed supports in 3669, 3680-3689-3701, 3711-3726-3733 areas.</p>
<p>3762 and 3711 are the monthly levels that support the current uptrend, so beware of any breakout of these levels: we could witness a new trend inversion.</p>
<p>The psychological support of 3600 remains crucial. The support at 3644-3651 has halted the fall and is now the monthly support after this solid uptrend. It shouldn’t be touched again, to avoid new and heavy downward movements. Below is the 3607 level. Then again, the 3557-3547, 3538-3524, and 3514-3507 are support levels. The 3485 support is now the annual, critical, and historical level for the S&amp;P500 index. We will monitor whether this last level could stop, at least in the medium term, the bearish direction of the markets. Should we go beyond it, 3200-3300 will be the target, sought after by funds, investors, and traders halfway around the world.</p>
<p>New resistances in the 4384 area. A successful breakthrough of the aforementioned level, backed by substantial trading volumes, might trigger a rebound. The hidden purpose is to attack the intermediate area 4401-4409. Beyond this range, resistances are emerging from 4414 up to 4425-4430. Successfully surpassing this larger zone could result in further upward bounces. The targets are the resistances 4444-4450 and 4456-4462, which are also weekly. Finally, we have the 4473-4491 range.</p>
<p>4508-4514-4520 are confirmed. Intermediate resistances are located in the 4525-4531 and 4535-4542 areas. The key resistance in the 4550 area has been confirmed. Additional resistances in the 4564, 4575-4580 areas and the resistance that offers a new bullish strength in the 4595-4607 area. Confirmed resistances 4617-4622 and 4629-4632.</p>
<p>The upside targets are still 4662 and 4680. Important resistances could come into play from these two levels before new historical highs are reached.</p>
<p>The weekly closure above 4613 guarantees the annual trend reversal if confirmed on a monthly basis; the following targets remain 4717 and 4780.</p>
<p>How to move?</p>
<p>On August 17, which was the setup date, it led to a significant low followed by a rebound. The next relevant dates, where turning points could occur, remain the 28th and 30th. Therefore we expect the lows to be reached right at the end of the month. The subsequent developments will hinge on the magnitude of these lows. Unless we will witness at least one price recovery above the weekly resistances during this week, we should continue to see further bearish pressure and flash crashes.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-25114 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XGER-DAX.png" alt="" width="1916" height="840" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XGER-DAX.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XGER-DAX-300×132.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XGER-DAX-1024×449.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XGER-DAX-768×337.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XGER-DAX-1536×673.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /></p>
<p><strong>DE40</strong> – Last week the German index posted a heavy drawdown ending on Friday, within the weekly support located at 15596-439. If this support manages to hold a bounce or an accumulation phase this week, we could witness a strong price rally to the upside.</p>
<p>Supports in areas 15439, 15368-308, and 15287-247 are confirmed. Followed by 15152-196, 15247-287 and 15308-368 (weekly). These zones represent the strength of the yearly bullish strength and must be maintained for the movement to continue.</p>
<p>Supports in areas 14957-14844 and 14737-603 are confirmed. This area becomes the yearly level for new upward movements or heavy drawdowns.</p>
<p>Confirmed intermediate supports 14138-184, 14342, 14414-545.</p>
<p>New critical zone in area 13814-781. The loss of the volumetric zone 14069-13974 opens the way to monthly support in the 13621 area.</p>
<p>Solid supports in areas 13692-608, 13550-516, and 13457-410. Supports 13314-333, 13331-410, 13438-467 confirmed.<br />
Confirmed volumetric supports in areas 12865, 12833-12909, 12978-13038, 13113-178, 13222-280, 13307-357.</p>
<p>Confirmed the supports in area 12808-766. From 12628 to 12766, there are a series of intermediate supports, helpful for long entry from pullbacks. 12566 becomes monthly support.</p>
<p>Other key supports are 12407-517, for the concentration of volumes, and 12353-275, the first bullish turning zone. Confirmed support in areas 12223 and 12136.</p>
<p>It was also confirmed support in the 19920-15006 area. This is 11875-11950-12024, which halted the price fall after the US CPI data on Oct 13th. Losing it would mean new bearish pressures and a touch of the weekly support in the 11766 area; with extensions to 11650 and 11542 below it. The 11095 mark could be a target in case of a massive sell-off. These levels can be considered annual reversal points.</p>
<p>New resistances in area 15631-684 and 15718-774. A breakthrough of these levels could initiate a vertical thrust aiming at the weekly resistance located in the 15855-921 area as a target.</p>
<p>15983-16024 and 16054-104 confirmed. Trespassing these levels could lead to a rapid rebound up to the monthly resistance in the area 16225-253, where we could fill the gap of Tuesday 2 August. Additional resistances in the 16272-335 area, breaching these levels could reach the annual peaks in the 16517-475 area.</p>
<p>If by the following Friday, prices remain above 16104, we could witness a chance for a continuation of a bullish movement on a monthly basis; below 15638, the trend will move strongly downwards again.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-25117 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS-PRISCO.png" alt="" width="1916" height="840" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS-PRISCO.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS-PRISCO-300×132.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS-PRISCO-1024×449.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS-PRISCO-768×337.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS-PRISCO-1536×673.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /></p>
<p><strong>US30</strong> – Last week, the index collapsed almost vertically, leading prices to touch and briefly break through the weekly support located in the 34509-445 area, reaching 34270 on Friday.</p>
<p>New supports in areas 34536-382 and 34338-270. Defending these levels could lead to a major price rebound.</p>
<p>34235-175, 34142-076 confirmed. Additional support in areas 34000 and 33931-861, which become weekly.</p>
<p>Confirmed 33712-660 as monthly support and also 33559-434. The break of these zones could lead to bearish solid accelerations.</p>
<p>Other supports are placed in the area 33305, 33216-039, and 32975-858. Underneath, it will be possible to witness new bearish accelerations. Other supports in areas 32804 and 32725 are monthly supports.</p>
<p>Additional supports in the following areas: 32499-632, the loss of which could lead to monthly trend reversals. Following supports: 32801-875, 33945-990.</p>
<p>Confirmed supports are placed in two well-bought areas: 31197-497 and 31536-764. Other support areas are placed at 31753-920, 32111. The 31861 level still remains a key one.</p>
<p>31036-31125 is still to be considered critical support for the monthly level. Confirmed 30953-815, 30715-614, 30559-381, 30253-136, and 29696-29906.</p>
<p>The 29485 mark remains a critical one. In addition to the 29619-529 and 29338-29264, the support zones 29159-28876 and 28800-28685 are again kept. These are all excellent supports to look for long entry opportunities from pullbacks. Should they all be pierced to the downside, prices could move toward 28319, 28051, 27765, and 27019 in extension.</p>
<p>New resistance zones in areas 34653-706, 34765-881, 34908-975, 34997-35109. These zones are impregnable walls and only a significant volumetric force could change the weekly direction of the markets. Additional resistances in areas 35166 and 35273-378-444.</p>
<p>35539-591 confirmed. At 35620 we will manage to fill the gap of Tuesday, August 2nd. Final resistance in area 35673-715.</p>
<p>The break of this monthly resistance zone opens the gateway to the 36068, weekly target.</p>
<p>Monthly positioning of the price above 35599-963 could offer a new bullish direction on a yearly basis. A movement that will go through 36529, managing to keep this level, would offer the possibility of reaching the 37000 area if prices forcefully break the last resistance placed in the 36786 area. Above 36236, we keep the possibility of further volumetric upward thrusts.</p>
<p><strong>IMPORTANT NOTE:</strong> The market has just started to fall, as we forecasted in early August. If there won’t be strong breaks of the weekly resistances, the pullbacks, even violent ones, will be excellent opportunities to re-enter in short positions. Avoid entering during breakouts and wait for the prices, after the pullbacks, to start showing a clear downward movement. The volatility remains high, so avoid any entries with a high probability against it. Starting this week, the likelihood of a flash crash is increasing, tracking another 2-3 percentage points before a more significant pullback will manifest.</p>
<p>Also this week it is wise to note the openings on Monday and the closings on Friday, to confirm or deny the current trend. Avoid overtrading and watch out for the volatility imprinted by HFTs. Mark any gaps that may also appear during the week, paying particular attention to those on Mondays.</p>
<p>Happy trading!</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/dax-40-dow-jones-weekly-analysis-21st-25th-august-25124/">DAX 40 & DOW JONES: Weekly analysis 21st – 25th August</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>