Daily Market Outlook, September 25, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, September 25, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets traded with a mixed tone, mostly leaning towards the negative side due to a lack of significant catalysts over the weekend and concerns about Chinese developers. The Nikkei 225 outperformed, driven by hopes of stimulus measures in Japan. The government is considering offering tax benefits to firms producing semiconductors and storage batteries, as well as providing support in high-entry-risk areas for private-sector companies. They also plan to boost take-home pay for part-time workers. In contrast, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite faced pressure due to concerns related to Chinese developers. Evergrande shares plummeted by more than 20% after cancelling a creditor meeting and scrapping its $35 billion debt restructuring plan. The company cited an investigation into its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate as the reason for being unable to issue new debt. Additionally, China Aoyuan shares dropped over 70% upon resuming trade after a 17-month hiatus.On the economic front, recent data releases showed both the UK and Eurozone Composite PMIs registering readings below the 50-mark, indicating recessionary conditions in both economies. The Eurozone has experienced this for the fourth consecutive month, and regional reports for France and Germany also paint a bleak picture of their economies. Today's IFO survey for Germany is expected to show a drop in the headline measure to 85.2 in September, primarily due to a fall in the current activity component. In the UK, there are no major data releases today, but the CBI retail sales report for September will be of interest. The report will provide insights into whether the weak underlying retail trends observed in August continued into the final month of the quarter.Statside, the Chicago Fed activity index for August and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for September will offer insights into local economic trends. Market participants will also pay attention to speeches by the US Fed's Kashkari and the ECB's Villeroy, as they may provide confirmation that interest rates in both economies have either peaked or are very close to their peak. ECB's Villeroy indicated over the weekend that the recent rise in oil prices would not impact the underlying disinflation, suggesting that euro rates had peaked. Investors are closely monitoring the situation regarding a potential government shutdown in the United States. GOP Representative Graves has indicated that Republicans are contemplating a stopgap government funding measure that could span anywhere from 14 to 60 days. Graves emphasised the importance of avoiding a funding lapse, characterising it as a mistake. In addition, Graves mentioned that House Republicans are advancing with four appropriations bills in the coming week. However, with just seven days remaining until government funding expires, lawmakers may need to pass a short-term measure to prevent a shutdown. Lawmakers have cautioned that the likelihood of a government shutdown is increasing as hopes for a last-minute compromise diminish.FX Positioning & Sentiment The week begins with a cautious tone in the USD/JPY market as traders remain watchful for potential intervention by Japan. The pair had experienced a 0.55% increase on Friday following a dovish Bank of Japan (BOJ) statement. USD/JPY is expected to stay bid on dips due to the BOJ's commitment to maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy and its dovish guidance. This is in contrast to the higher-for-longer interest rate stance of the Federal Reserve, which has resulted in a widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. Traders are closely monitoring the situation for any signs of verbal or actual intervention by Japan in the currency market. This vigilance is driven by the desire to prevent excessive yen strength, which can negatively impact Japanese exports and economic growth.CFTC Data As Of 22-09-23USD net spec short flips to long $4.567 in Sept 13-19 period; $IDX +0.51%EUR$ -0.67% in Sep 13-19 period, specs -11,099 contract, now +101,981Hawkish Fed posturing at Fed hold Wednesday pushed EUR lower in current period$JPY +0.55%, specs -2,906 contract as pair hovers near 2023 highsDogfight b/w bulls & bears as longs profit, new longs eye US-JY yield diffsGBP$ -0.87% in period, specs -12,491 contracts on less-hawkish BoE rate viewWeak BoE data, recent hold hints at further GBP weaknessAUD$ (+0.54%), $CAD (-0.9%) sold aggressively despite higher commodity pricesBTC +4.29% in period, specs -635 contracts; higher Fed rate musing stir long unwind (Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.0540-45 (1BLN), 1.0600 (375M), 1.0650 (250M), 1.0670 (307M)1.0690-1.0700 (744M), 1.0710 (321M), 1.0725 (919M), 1.0750 (487M)1.0790 (2.1-BLN).GBP/USD: 1.2170 (360M), 1.2275 (545M), 1.2300 (203M), 1.2335 (462M)AUD/USD: 0.6400 (881M), 0.6485 (417M). AUD/NZD: 1.0860 (556M)USD/CAD: 1.3400-05 (784M), 1.3425 (565M), 1.3470 (556M)USD/JPY: 147.00 (1.3BLN), 148.50 (236M), 149.00 (642M), 150.00 (680M)USD/CHF: 0.9050 (618M). EUR/NOK: 11.40 (591M)Overnight Newswire Updates of NoteAsian Shares Subdued After Brutal Central Bank WeekLawmakers Warn That US Is Heading For Shutdown As Budget Talks StallHollywood Writers Reach Agreement With Studios, Streamers To End StrikeECB’s Villeroy Says Fuel Jolt Won’t Affect 2% Inflation In 2025S&P: APAC Showing Resilient Growth Amid Slowdown In ChinaAustralia Warns Of Impact If China Suffers Sharper SlowdownJapan To Boost Take-Home Pay For Part Time Workers, Yomiuri SaysItaly Offers Banks Get-Out Clause To Controversial Windfall TaxSliding Yen Stokes Intervention Threat; Dollar ReignsYen Intervention Watch Redoubles After Fed, BoJ MeetingsChina’s Economic Rebound Will Support The Yuan – CSJHedge Funds Rush To Unwind Bets Against GiltsOil Holds Rally As Hedge Funds Join Increasingly Bullish BetsAsian Shares Subdued Monday After Brutal Central Bank WeekChina Developer Slump Deepens To $55 Billion As Debt Woes MountQantas Travel Demand Remains Strong, Fuel Price Up 30% Since May(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4355Above 4360 opens 4385Primary resistance  is 4465Primary objective is 426620 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0730Above 1.08 opens 1.0910Primary resistance is 1.1066Primary objective is 1.0620 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2300Above 1.2350 opens 1.2450Primary resistance  is 1.2750Primary objective 1.2220 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 147.50Below 147 opens 146.40Primary support 144.50Primary objective is 15020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below .6450Above .6475 opens .6525Primary resistance  is .6620Primary objective is .632020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 27500Above 28200 opens 30000Primary resistance  is 28175Primary objective is 2330020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish