Daily Market Outlook, November 16, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, November 16, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asia – .stocks experienced mixed performance, influenced by the choppy trading in the U.S. and a waning of recent data-driven momentum. The Nikkei 225, despite better-than-expected exports and machinery orders, saw a 0.1% decline as investors opted to book profits. in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell by 1.4%, and the Shanghai Composite dipped by 1.5%. These declines were attributed to mixed tech earnings and the aftermath of the Biden-Xi meeting. The rhetoric from the meeting was described as constructive and productive, with both leaders agreeing to restart cooperation on counter-narcotics and establish forums for military-to-military contact. However, reports also noted that President Biden referred to President Xi as a dictator and raised concerns about China's human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong. Biden emphasised that the U.S. would take action to prevent its technology from being used to undermine its security. The nuanced outcomes of the Biden-Xi meeting, coupled with tech earnings and global economic considerations, contributed to the mixed performance in the Asia-Pacific markets.Europe – This morning, there are no major data releases in the UK or Eurozone. Sterling markets are expected to continue digesting yesterday's lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, influenced by the soft U.S. CPI figures the day before. Financial markets are currently anticipating first rate cuts by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank around the middle of next year. It remains to be seen whether there will be any pushback against these expectations, as central banks have not definitively ruled out further tightening. Many policymakers have previously emphasised that it is too early to consider rate cuts. Several central bank rate-setters are scheduled to appear today. However, many, including ECB President Lagarde and the Bank of England's Ramsden, are speaking at a financial stability conference, and it is uncertain if they will discuss near-term prospects for monetary policy.US – Stateside, In terms of data, US industrial production is expected to have declined in October, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is forecasted to have remained weak in November. Yesterday's retail sales data also showed a slowdown in spending, indicating a moderation in growth in Q4 after a strong third quarter. The Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today include Fed's Williams, Waller, Barr, Cook, and Mester. Their speeches may provide insights into the Fed's current stance on monetary policy, economic conditions, and their outlook for the future. Investors and analysts will closely watch these speeches for any hints or signals about potential policy adjustments by the central bank in response to the changing economic landscape.FX Positioning & Sentiment The demand for USD put options increased after the October NFP data and the U.S. CPI miss. Risk reversals showed a preference for USD puts over calls against currencies such as EUR, GBP, and AUD. USD/CNH 1-month expiry risk reversals flipped to USD puts from calls, indicating fear of USD/CNH losses. USD/JPY option flows were dominated by sellers. AUD/USD realised volatility outperformed implied volatility and maintained a long volatility bias. G10 FX is expected to stay within familiar Q4 ranges, limiting any potential FX implied volatility gains.CFTC Data As Of 10-11-23CAD bearish -3,555EUR bullish 11,287 GBP bearish -1,547 AUD bearish decreasing -4,760NZD bearish -747MXN bullish 867 CHF bearish -2,047JPY bearish increasing -8,558 Gold bullish increasing 32,422USD bullish decreasing 9,060 (CFTC)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.0800 (1.8BLN), 1.0825 (411M), 1.0850-55 (1.9BLN)USD/CHF: 0.8820 (233M), 0.8920 (304M), 0.8980-85 (608M)GBP/USD: 1.2285 (253M), 1.2300 (341M), 1.2360 (546M), 1.2425-40 (1BLN)EUR/GBP: 0.8670-75 (513M)AUD/USD: 0.6450-55 (1.2BLN), 0.6460 (1.8BLN), 0.6465-75 (1.2BLN)0.6475 (427M), 0.6500-05 (958M)NZD/USD: 0.5800 (1.7BLN), 0.5950 (350M), 0.6025 (1.8BLN)USD/CAD: 1.3700 (367M), 1.3750 (1.4BLN).USD/JPY: 150.00 (3.7BLN), 150.95-151.05 (1.1BLN), 151.20-25 (1.4BLN)151.50 (624M), 152.00 (578M)Overnight Newswire Updates of NoteUS Futures Little Changed, Hopes To Build On November RallyAsia Stocks Inch Lower As Investors Digest Biden-Xi MeetingFed’s Daly: Warn Against Calling Time On Hike Cycle Too SoonFed’s Barkin: More Needs To Be Done Over Affordable HousingUS Senate Vote To Avert Shutdown, Omitting Israel-Ukraine AidBiden Adviser Says Sanctions Will Bring Down Iran Oil ExportsBiden, Xi Strike Deal On Military Communications, Fentanyl, AIBiden Again Calls Xi A Dictator, Showing Limits Of CooperationChina Housing Woes Worsen As Prices Fall Most In Eight YearsJapan Exports Decelerate, Keep Pressure On Fragile EconomyAustralia Unemployment Rate Rises Even As Job Gains PersistUK’s Hunt Plans To Slash Inheritance Tax At Autumn StatementSpain Debate New Sanchez Term Amid Amnesty Offer ProtestsCisco Shares Fall As Corporate Spending Slump Hurt Forecasts(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 4470Below 4400 opens 4370Primary support 4420Primary objective is 454020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.08Below 1.0650 opens 1.0550Primary support 1.0650Primary objective is 1.096420 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2430Below 1.24 opens 1.2350Primary support  is 1.2185Primary objective 1.257020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 150Below 149 opens 148.30Primary support 147.30Primary objective is 152.5020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below .6450Below .6290 opens .6250Primary support .6330Primary objective is .659020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 34000Below 33600 opens 32400Primary support  is 30000Primary objective is 3700020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish