Daily Market Outlook, June 9, 2020
<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, June 9, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span>US S&P equity index erases 2020 losses, although sentiment was more mixed during the Asian session despite Wall Street closing at a 15-week high. Japanese markets in particular were weighed down by news that North Korea is cutting contacts with South Korea. </span></p>
<p><span>In the UK, the British Retail Consortium reported a rebound in total retail sales of 5.9%y/y in May after the plunge of 19.1% in April. A quiet day ensues in terms of scheduled economic data releases and events. </span></p>
<p><span>Eurozone Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at -3.8%q/q representing the start of a deep recession as lockdown measures were introduced in March. The decline in activity is expected to be much bigger in Q2. Last week, the ECB predicted the Eurozone economy will contract by 8.7% this year. The ECB’s Olli Rehn is scheduled to speak on monetary policy in Helsinki. There are no major UK data releases today. PM Boris Johnson is talk to his Cabinet on easing lockdown measures further after the number of daily deaths related to the coronavirus was reported to be the lowest since restrictions were implemented. </span></p>
<p><span>In the US, the NFIB survey’s small optimism index may show a small recovery in May following sharp declines in March and April. We forecast a rise to 92.5 from 90.9. Attention is likely to turn to tomorrow’s CPI inflation figures and the Federal Reserve policy announcement. No change to policy is expected, but markets will assess for how long current policy settings will be in place and the likelihood of further stimulus despite the unexpected payrolls rebound in May. </span></p>
<p><span>Overnight on Wednesday, China will release inflation data for May. Consumer price inflation is expected to fall further to 2.7% from 3.3% due to lower food and energy prices. Producer price inflation is also forecast to fall to -3.3% from -3.1%, likely reflecting weak demand and lower commodity prices.</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: 1.1200-10 (425M), 1.1300 (800M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 107.85 (390M), 108.40 (250M)</span></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD: 0.7000 (350M), 0.7055 (230M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><span>Technical & Trade Views</span></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1250 targeting 1.1420</b></p>
<p><span>From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.1250 acts as support bulls will look for a test of offers and stops at 1.14 before we likely see another round of profit taking. A closing breach of 1.1230 would suggest a broader corrective phase to test bids back towards 1.10 before the next leg higher</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-44936" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30.png" alt="" width="2153" height="1159" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30.png 2153w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30-300×161.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30-1024×551.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30-768×413.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30-1536×827.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.30-2048×1102.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2153px) 100vw, 2153px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.26 targeting 1.28</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.26 supports on pull back look for a test of 1.28 descending trendline and the 78.6% retracement of the covid crisi decline, from here we could see a broader profit taking move and correction. On the day only a close back below 1.2575 would suggest the current cycle has completed</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-44937" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43.png" alt="" width="2148" height="1154" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43.png 2148w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43-300×161.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43-1024×550.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43-768×413.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43-1536×825.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.43-2048×1100.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2148px) 100vw, 2148px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bearish below 1.09 targeting 1.07</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, the topside breach of 108.50 delays downside objectives opening a retest of range resistance above 109, however as supply above 1.09 stems the upside look for a retest of buds back to 1.08 UPDATE the upside breach of 1.09 suggests range expansion with 110.70 the upside object as 1.09 supports UPDATE sharp rejection above 109.50 suggests a return to range trade and a retest of support back to 107</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-44938" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53.png" alt="" width="2151" height="1153" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53.png 2151w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53-300×161.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53-1024×549.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53-768×412.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53-1536×823.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.50.53-2048×1098.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2151px) 100vw, 2151px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .6900 targeting .7085)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective,sustained price action above .6800 witnessed the grind higher persist opening a test of the psychological bit figure at .7000. From this initial foray above .7000 anticipate profit taking pullback to .6800 UPDATE target achieved as .6950 supports look for test of stops to .7050 UPDATE offers and stops towards .7100 look vulnerable, expect supply above .7100 to drive a test of bids back towards .6900</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-44939" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27.png" alt="" width="2147" height="1152" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27.png 2147w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27-300×161.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27-1024×549.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27-768×412.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27-1536×824.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-08.52.27-2048×1099.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2147px) 100vw, 2147px" /></p>
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