Daily Market Outlook, June 26, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, June 26, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets showed limited movement following losses on Wall Street Friday, as weak global PMI data and a lack of fresh catalysts kept markets subdued. The weekend news cycle was dominated by the brief uprising of the Wagner Group in Russia. The Nikkei 225 in Japan experienced choppy trading as investors digested the latest Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The summary largely reiterated the central bank's dovish stance, emphasising the need to maintain current monetary easing and the premature nature of any policy shifts. However, one member suggested that the BoJ should consider reviewing its yield curve control (YCC) framework in the near future while continuing with easy monetary policy.The Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite had mixed performances, with the Hong Kong benchmark trading within a range and the mainland market underperforming. The return from the Dragon Boat Festival revealed that travel spending remained below pre-COVID levels, adding to concerns about weak domestic demand and slower consumption.The start of the week has a scant data docket. In Europe, the German Ifo survey is expected to show a slight moderation in June. In the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June is set to be released. Attention will also be focused on the ECB's Sintra forum, where President Lagarde is expected to deliver welcome remarks. ECB officials have been reassuring markets about their ability to contain inflation, and this message was likely to be reiterated during the conference. The gathering of central bank officials, including the heads of the ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, will be closely watched given the global challenges of inflation and borrowing costs. However, no new information is anticipated as many of these officials had recently made statements following policy decisions.CFTC Data As Of 23-06-23(USD net spec short grew in Jun 14-20 period; $IDX -0.76%EUR$ +1.15% in period, specs -7,173 contracts into strength, now +144,649$JPY +1.31% in period, JPY soft amid rate divergence, specs -3,680 contractsGBP$ +1.21%, specs get long ahead of CPI/BoE, +39,873 contracts now +46,608Specs guessed right higher CPI, +50bp BoE but GBP$ -150 pips from weeks highAUD$ +0.3% in period, specs +12,129 contracts on hawkish RBA, now -33.5kBTC +8.96%, specs 346 contracts into strength, halved long to +397 contracts (Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.0815 (471M), 1.0825-35 (464M) , 1.0855-60 (641M)1.0950-55 (335M)EUR/CHF: 0.9800 (323M). GBP/USD: 1.2730 (204M)AUD/USD: 0.6675 (300), 0.6775 (295M)Overnight News of NoteFed’s Bowman Says Bank Supervision Preferable To Capital RulesUS Officials See Weakened Putin, Russia Turmoil Reveals 'Cracks'Silence Cloaks Russian Kremlin After Armed Mutiny Against PutinS&P Global Cuts China 2023 Growth Forecast To 5.2% From 5.5%China Senior Economic Official: Must Act Fast To Bolster RecoveryBoJ Member Called For Early Tweak To YCC, Yen Worry ResurfaceJapan Forex Official Warns 'Rapid And One-Sided' Weakening YenECB Entering Final Stretch Of Interest Rate Hikes, De Guindos SaysECB's Makhlouf Says Undecided About Rate Increases Beyond JulyUK To Tame Inflation With Greedflation And Public Pay CrackdownSwiss National Bank Governor Jordan Flags Further Rate IncreasesOPEC Forecasts Global Oil Demand Rising To 110Mln BPD By 2045(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4340Below 4330 opens 4300Primary support is 4300Primary objective is 458020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0920Below 1.0880 opens 1.0830Primary support is 1.0666Primary objective is 1.105020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750 Below 1.27 opens 1.26Primary support  is 1.2680Primary objective 1.288020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.20 – Target Hit, New Pattern Emerging Below 141.90 opens 140.90Primary support  is 139.50Primary objective is 143.4920 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6806Below .6720  opens .6648Primary support  is .648Primary objective is .691720 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 29500 Below 28000 opens 26900Primary resistance is 27400Primary objective is 3160020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish