Daily Market Outlook, July 14, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, July 14, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets were mostly positive in overnight trading following a favourable performance on Wall Street. Yields continued to decline, supported by the softer consumer inflation and PPI data, strengthening the case for just one more rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Nikkei 225 remained flat, alternating between gains and losses. It faced challenges from the strength of the Japanese yen and speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might raise its inflation forecast above the 2% target during its upcoming meeting, potentially paving the way for policy normalisation. Former BoJ Director Hayakawa anticipated that the BoJ could adjust its yield curve control by raising the 10-year yield ceiling to 1.0%. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were positive, with modest gains despite the People's Bank of China's renewed support pledges to maintain appropriate credit growth, along with efforts to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and support key sectors.Today's data docker is scant at best, concluding a busy week. Notable data releases were absent in the UK, and the Eurozone only presented the May international trade report. The Eurozone's trade deficit with the rest of the world had initially widened significantly last year but has since narrowed, achieving its first surplus in March 2023 (since September 2021), although it slipped back into deficit in April. Fluctuations in export and import volumes may contribute to these variations, but the Eurozone's status as a net energy importer suggests that a significant portion is influenced by last year's energy price surge. Consequently, with energy prices now lower than their peaks, the trade balance may continue to improve.Stateside the University of Michigan's July update on consumer sentiment survey, set to release this afternoon will offer timely insights into the sentiments of US consumers. In June, the measure reached its highest level in four months as both present and future sentiments improved. This was likely driven by growing indications of decreasing inflation. Therefore, we anticipate further improvement in consumer sentiment this month, accompanied by a decline in near-term inflation expectations. It's worth noting that the survey was conducted before the release of the lower-than-expected June CPI inflation data.CFTC Data As Of 07-07-23USD net spec short pared in Jun 28-Jul 3 period, $IDX +0.58% in periodEUR$ -0.77% in period, specs -2,191 contracts into dip, now +142,837$JPY +0.3% in period, specs -5,050 contracts on diverging rates now -117,920GBP$ -0.29%, specs -1,729 contracts, now +50,265; less-dovish Fed lifts USD$CAD +0.21% specs +7,374 contracts flip position to +4,527AUD$ +0.09% in period, specs -5,158 contracts now -44,582BTC +0.5% in period specs +18 contracts now short 2,076 contracts(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.1165-75 (750M), 1.1200 (1BN)USD/CAD: 1.3040 (310M), 1.3100-05 (700M), 1.3150 (266M)AUD/USD: 0.6900 (804M) Overnight News of NoteAsia Stocks Set For Best Week Of 2023, Dollar Reels On Dovish Fed BetsAustralia Appoints Michele Bullock To Be Central Bank GovernorChina Central Bank Pledges To Use Policy Tools To Spur RecoveryBoK: Governor Did Not Rule Out Possibility Of A Rate Cut In 2023Japan FinMin Suzuki: G7 Finance Chiefs To Meet On July 16Fed's Waller Eyes July Rate Rise, And Another Hike Before Year EndsDollar At 15-Month Low As Easing Inflation Firms Rate Peak BetsCoinbase Will Re-Enable Trading For XRP After Mixed Court RulingOil Set For Third Weekly Gain As African Outages Tighten SupplyFTC Asks Appeals Court To Pause Microsoft Deal After Lower Court RefusesMicrosoft, Activision Weigh Sale Of Some UK Cloud-Gaming RightsSpaceX Nears $150 Bln Valuation After Secondary Share SaleRoivant In Talks To Sell Stomach Drug To Roche, Deal Valued At More Than $7 Bln(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4490 – Target Hit New Pattern EmergingBelow 4480 opens 4460Primary support is 4370Primary objective is 463020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.1150 Target Hit New Pattern EmergingBelow 1.1150 opens 1.1050Primary support is 1.10Primary objective is 1.1320 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.30 Target Hit New Pattern EmergingBelow 1.2830 opens 1.2710Primary support  is 1.26Primary objective 1.385020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 141 – Target Hit, New Pattern EmergingAbove 139.50 opens 141.80Primary resistance 142Primary objective is 136.2020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6800Below .6795 opens .6750Primary support  is .6448Primary objective is .700020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 30000 Below 29400 opens 28600Primary support  is 28400Primary objective is 3275020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish