Daily Market Outlook, July 09, 2020
<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, July 09, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>Another record closing high in the Nasdaq, spurred on by technology stocks, followed through to stronger equities in Asia</strong>. The futures market points to a firmer open in Europe. Markets seemed to shrug off ongoing concerns about rising Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US, while the Fed’s Bostic warned again about economic activity levelling off. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>On the data front, Chinese June CPI edged up to 2.5% from 2.4% in line with expectations following falls in recent months,</strong> while factory gate deflation eased to -3.0% from -3.7%. Here in the UK, the RICS housing survey showed the net balance reporting higher house prices becoming less negative in June at -15% compared with -32% in May. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Last week saw a second consecutive monthly rise in US nonfarm payrolls,</strong> with 4.8mln increase in June beating expectations and coming on top of the 2.7mln gain in May. Together, that reversed about a third of the 22mln plunge in jobs that occurred in March and April. A timelier update on the labour market will come from US weekly jobless claims data this afternoon. In particular, there are concerns about the potential economic impact of rising coronavirus cases in parts of the country. The pace of decline in the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has already been easing in recent weeks. The latest data for the week ending 27 June showed initial claims falling less than expected to 1.43mln. Expect a further small decline to 1.375mln for the week ending 4 July, in line with the market consensus forecast. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>There is little else in today’s calendar.</strong> The ECB’s Hernandez de Cos (Bank of Spain Governor) is due to speak at an event. In the US, we expect to hear further comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic who takes part in a webinar on fiscal policy</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><b>1.1275 (1BLN),</b><span> 1.1290 (250M), </span><b>1.1300 (1.8BLN)</b><span>, </span><b>1.1350-60 (1BLN),</b><span> 1.1365-70 (730M), </span><b>1.1375 (1.1BLN)</b><span>, 1.1380 (300M), 1.1395-1.1400 (700M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 107.10 (408M), 107.20-30 (700M)</span><b>, 107.50 (1.1BLN), 107.70 (280M), 108.00 (300M)</b></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD: 0.6900 (420M), 0.6915 (360M), 0.6950 (350M), 0.7005-10 (430M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><span>Technical & Trade Views</span></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1150 targeting 1.15</b></p>
<p><span>From a technical and trading perspective, as symmetry swing support at 1.1170 supports there is a window for fresh demand to take prices higher again to retest cycle highs above 1.14 enroute to an ultimate retest of year to date highs at 1.15. Price is testing intraday range resistance at 1.13 A failure to close above here could see a move back to test range support at 1.12 before attempting another run at 1.1350 UPDATE 1.13 back in play through here opens 1.1340 ahead of 1.14 daily VWAP bullish. UPDATE testing range resistance, supply here could see a pullback to 1.12 before another basing attempt. </span><span>NOTE </span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6685831276143886336/"><span>DTCC option reported data shows 40 billion euros evenly spread between 1.1200 and 1.1400 over the next fortnight.</span></a></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46784" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00.png" alt="" width="2396" height="1202" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00.png 2396w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00-300×151.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00-1024×514.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00-768×385.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00-1536×771.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.45.00-2048×1027.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2396px) 100vw, 2396px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.24 targeting 1.2650</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, 1.2324 equality downside objective achieved, buyers have stepped in again as of writing to defend the equality objective. The close back through 1.2440 suggests a more meaningful low is in place for another attempt to take out stops above 1.2650. A close back through 1.24 would concern the bullish bias, however as 1.2350 attracts bids there remains an opportunity to test the 1.2650 upside objective UPDATE Target achieved, profit taking pullback possible to retest 1.240 before next leg higher to challenge stops and offers towards 1.28</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46785" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52.png" alt="" width="2140" height="1206" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52.png 2140w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52-1024×577.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52-768×433.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52-1536×866.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.46.52-2048×1154.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2140px) 100vw, 2140px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 107.50 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, anticipated test of the equality objective at 108.13 saw bearish reversal patterns, setting up a move for another test of 106 enroute to a pivotal 105 test UPDATE Note three billion worth of expiries at 107.45/55 today. UPDATE 107.50 remains the pivot with more sizeable expiries noted today, through 107.10 opens equality objective at 106.87</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46786" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32.png" alt="" width="2146" height="1208" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32.png 2146w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32-1024×576.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32-768×432.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32-1536×865.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.49.32-2048×1153.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2146px) 100vw, 2146px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .6830 targeting .7100)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 6830 attracts buyers there remains scope to retest and break prior cycle highs en route to a .7100 test. Expect bids towards .6900 to act as intraday support</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46787" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48.png" alt="" width="2140" height="1205" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48.png 2140w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48-1024×577.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48-768×432.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48-1536×865.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-09-08.50.48-2048×1153.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2140px) 100vw, 2140px" /></p>
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