Daily Market Outlook, July 06, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, July 06, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets mostly traded lower, influenced by weak global data releases, a rising yield environment, and limited guidance from the FOMC Minutes regarding future rate increases. The Nikkei 225 faced selling pressure after falling below the 33K handle. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp also declined, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks experiencing notable pressure. Mainland losses were mitigated ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen's arrival in Beijing for meetings with senior officials.In the UK, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey of businesses will be released, which is closely monitored by policymakers. The report's findings on firms' pricing behaviour, inflation expectations, and wage growth will be particularly scrutinised. The survey suggests that firms' price and wage growth expectations are moderating but remain high compared to historical averages. Additionally, the UK construction PMI for June will be published, with solid growth expected in the commercial and civil engineering sectors but contraction in housebuilding activity.Retail sales figures for May in the Eurozone were expected to show modest month-on-month growth. German factory orders for May showed a significant increase but remained lower compared to a year ago. Tomorrow's German industrial production report will be closely watched for signs of further deceleration in activity, following recent weaker-than-expected outcomes and survey evidence.Stateside the upcoming employment and ISM services data are of note on today's data docket The ADP gauge of private payrolls is expected to show a decrease to 228,000 from the previous reading of 278,000. Challenger layoffs data will also be released. The JOLTs data for May, which provides insights into job openings, is anticipated to moderate to 9.9 million from 10.1 million in April. Weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims data are expected to show a slight increase. S&P Global will release its final composite and services PMI data shortly before the release of the ISM services index for June. The ISM headline index is forecasted to rise to 51.0 from 50.3, indicating growth in the services sector. The business activity index is also expected to improve slightly to 51.9 from 51.5. The services sector has shown more resilience compared to the manufacturing sector, and analysts will be monitoring how long this resilience can be sustained, considering the manufacturing decline and the lagged impact of previous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.CFTC Data As Of 30-06-23USD IMM net spec short in the Jun 21-27 reporting period; $IDX -0.02%EUR$ +0.38% in period, specs stayed on sidelines +379 contracts now +145,028$JPY rose 1.91%, specs -5,214 contracts now -112,870 as BoJ remains steadyRecent test of 145, tipped intervention area may stir long profit-takingGBP$ -0.1%, specs +5,386 contracts now +51,994 on rising UK rate viewBTC rose 8.86%, specs sold 2,491 contracts into strength, flip to -2,094$CAD -0.31% in period, specs +30,696 contracts short pared to -2,847AUD$ -1.49% in period, specs +10,192 contracts now -39,424BoC, RBA had been considering further rate hikes amid persistent inflationInflation stalling has weakened CAD and AUD since Jun 21, may see recent longs lighten(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.0800 (450M), 1.0820 (300M), 1.0840-50 (1BLN)1.0890 (775M), 1.0950 (785M)USD/CHF: 0.8875 (255M). GBP/USD: 1.2850 (490M)EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (180M), 0.8600 (220M), 0.8625 (188M)AUD/USD: 0.6655 (273M), 0.6675-80 (261M)USD/JPY: 144.00 (2.4BLN), 144.40-50 (369M), 145.00 (1.1BLN)Overnight News of NoteMinutes Revealed Some Fed Officials Supported Raising Rates In JuneFed's Williams Says Data Supports More Action On Interest RatesBoE’s Dovish Talk May Have Worsened UK Inflation, Economists SayUK Edges Closer To Re-joining EU’s £85Bln Horizon Science ProgrammeSNB’s Maechler: SNB Doesn't Rule Out Further Rate HikesChina Analysts: China To Prefer Near Term Structural Policy SupportChina Has Ample Tools Even In ‘Panic’ Yuan Drop, PBoC Paper SaysAustralia's Trade Surplus Swells To $11.8 Billion, Beating ForecastsDollar Firms On Rate Hike Views After Fed Minutes, Yen GainsBlackRock Wants To Make It Cheaper To Trade Bitcoin, Larry Fink SaysOil Prices Steady As China Demand Fears Offset Tighter Supply ForecastsStocks Slide, US Yields Climb Amid Hawkish Fed, China TensionsBank Of America Increases Dividend By 9% After Fed Stress TestAs Twitter Falters, Threads Surpasses 5 Million Sign Ups On Day OneExxonMobil Sees $4 Billion Earnings Hit From Gas Prices, Refining(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4412Below 4400 opens 4370Primary support is 4300Primary objective is 454020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0840Below 1.0840 opens 1.08Primary support is 1.07Primary objective is 1.105020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2650Below 1.26 opens 1.2550Primary support  is 1.26Primary objective 1.288020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 143.50 Below 143 opens 142.30Primary support  is 141Primary objective is 145.5020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6660Below .6600 opens .6550Primary support  is .6448Primary objective is .691720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 30000 Below 29400 opens 28600Primary support  is 28400Primary objective is 3275020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish