Daily Market Outlook, July 03, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, July 03, 2023Munnelly’s Market Commentary… Asian equity markets started the new trading month on a positive note, drawing momentum from a rally on Wall Street. Market participants also digested key data releases, including an improved Tankan survey in Japan and better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.7%, driven by the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey, which showed improved sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers for the first time in seven quarters. The Hang Seng index and Shanghai Composite index followed suit, supported by the positive Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the People's Bank of China's commitment to providing inclusive loan support for small and micro businesses. In other news, the US confirmed that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China for meetings with senior officials, although expectations of a significant breakthrough are low.Manufacturing PMI updates from major economies will be closely watched today. The US manufacturing ISM survey is expected to remain steady in June, indicating continuing contraction in the sector. In Europe, including the UK, final manufacturing PMI releases are expected to confirm the contractionary trend in the sector. The UK's manufacturing PMI is forecasted to remain below the key-50 level for the eleventh consecutive month, while the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI is expected to mark the twelfth consecutive month below 50.Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on interest rates will be closely watched. It is anticipated to be a close call between a 25bps increase to 4.35% and leaving rates unchanged at 4.10%. Weaker-than-expected May CPI inflation in Australia may favour a hold, although the door for further tightening is likely to remain open.Friday’s U.S. jobs report is the data point for the week, it is expected to have a significant impact on Federal Reserve expectations, especially as it precedes the Fed's policy decision at the end of July. According to a Reuters poll, the forecast for June's non-farm payrolls suggests a moderation to 225,000 from May's figure of 339,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.30% month-on-month, matching May's figure, and by 4.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 4.3% recorded in May. In addition to the jobs report, several other key U.S. economic indicators will be released, including ADP jobs, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing data, JOLTs job openings, trade figures, factory orders, and weekly jobless claims. These data points will provide further insights into the health of the U.S. economy and contribute to the overall assessment of the economic and interest rate landscape Stateside.CFTC Data As Of 30-06-23USD IMM net spec short in the Jun 21-27 reporting period; $IDX -0.02%EUR$ +0.38% in period, specs stayed on sidelines +379 contracts now +145,028$JPY rose 1.91%, specs -5,214 contracts now -112,870 as BoJ remains steadyRecent test of 145, tipped intervention area may stir long profit-takingGBP$ -0.1%, specs +5,386 contracts now +51,994 on rising UK rate viewBTC rose 8.86%, specs sold 2,491 contracts into strength, flip to -2,094$CAD -0.31% in period, specs +30,696 contracts short pared to -2,847AUD$ -1.49% in period, specs +10,192 contracts now -39,424BoC, RBA had been considering further rate hikes amid persistent inflationInflation stalling has weakened CAD and AUD since Jun 21, may see recent longs lighten(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)USD/JPY: 142.95-00 (990M), 144.05 (274M), 144.50 (480M), 145.00 (317M)USD/CHF: 0.8840 (1BLN), 0.9040 (290M)GBP/USD: 1.2650 (332M), 1.2700 (394M), 1.2720 (309M), 1.2750 (360M)EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (455M), 0.8655 (353M)AUD/USD: 0.6555 (251M), 0.6640-60 (537M, 0.6685-00 (313M)0.6745-50 (323M). NZD/USD: 0.6105 (624M)AUD/NZD: 1.0800 (596M), 1.0850-60 (897M), 1.0900 (700M), 1.0925 (346M)1.0950 (1BLN), 1.1000 (1.1BLN)USD/ZAR: 18.50 (681M). EUR/NOK: 11.70 (235M)Overnight News of NoteChina's June Factory Activity Slows As Conditions WeakenChina New Home Prices Edge Down In June For 2nd MonthChina’s Central Bank Appoints New Top Communist Party OfficialYellen Heads To China This Week, Furthering US Move To Mend TiesBoJ Tankan Survey: Japan Business Sentiment Improves In Q2Australia Watchers Split On RBA Rate Path As Inflation LingersAustralia Building Approvals Surge Higher, Smashing Exp. In MayEU Free Trade Deal Still A ‘Way Off,’ Australian Minister SaysEU Considers Russian Bank Concession To Safeguard Black Sea Grain DealUK To Breach Iran Nuclear Deal With Refusal To Lift SanctionsPimco Prepares For ‘Harder Landing’ For Global EconomyYen Tentative, Dollar Soft As Traders Weigh Fed Rate Hike PathOil Steadies After Record Losing Run As Traders Eye Second HalfChina Is Buying Gas As If Their Is Still An Energy CrisisAsian Shares Extend Global Rally On Signs Of Moderating InflationApple Forced To Make Major Cuts To Vision Pro Headset Production PlansTesla Tops Expectations As Price Cuts Lift Deliveries To Record(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4412Below 4400 opens 4370Primary support is 4300Primary objective is 458020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0840Below 1.0840 opens 1.08Primary support is 1.0666Primary objective is 1.105020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2650Below 1.26 opens 1.2550Primary support  is 1.2680Primary objective 1.288020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 143.50 Below 143 opens 142.30Primary support  is 141Primary objective is 145.5020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6660Below .6600 opens .6550Primary support  is .6448Primary objective is .691720 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 29500 Below 28000 opens 26900Primary resistance is 27400Primary objective is 3275020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish