Daily Market Outlook, July 03, 2020 

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, July 03, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>Risk tone was positive in the Asian market after US equity markets closed higher, including a new record for the Nasdaq, although futures markets point to a slightly weaker open in Europe.</strong> Yesterday’s US June nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, rising by 4.8mln. Overnight, Chinese services PMI increased to 58.5 from 55.0 (see chart), the strongest for more than a decade. Here in the UK, GfK consumer confidence rose to -27 from -30. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.</strong> Today’s economic data releases focus on June services PMI surveys in Europe. The preliminary ‘flash’ services PMIs beat expectations in both the UK and the Eurozone, continuing their advances since April lows, although remaining below the key 50 level separating expansion and contraction. The notable exception was French services PMI which bounced back to 50.3. German services PMI increased to 45.8, while its UK counterpart improved for a second month to 47.0, pointing to a likely return to economic growth in Q3. For the UK, look for a slight upward revision to June services PMI to 47.2 from 47.0. In the Eurozone, expect the preliminary reading to be confirmed at 47.3, up from 30.5 in May and just 12.0 in April. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Within the Eurozone, we will get the first June releases for Italy and Spain</strong>, which are both forecast to improve for a second straight month, with the consensus forecasts at 47.0 and 45.9 respectively. The overall message from the UK and Eurozone PMI surveys is that the easing of lockdown measures has had a favourable impact on economic activity. However, beyond the short-term bounce in activity, the outlook remains highly uncertain given that some virus-related restrictions are still in place and a second wave of infections remains a risk. On the central bank front, the ECB’s Knot will be speaking at an event at 1pm. </span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: 1.1100 (560M), 1.1200 (237M), 1.1300 (395M)</span></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD: 0.6900 (365M), 0.6995 (361M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 107.00 (750M), 107.50 (600M), <strong>108.00 (1BLN)</strong></span></li>
</ul>
<h3><span>Technical &amp; Trade Views</span></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1150 targeting 1.15</b></p>
<p><span>From a technical and trading perspective, as symmetry swing support at 1.1170 supports there is a window for fresh demand to take prices higher again to retest cycle highs above 1.14 enroute to an ultimate retest of year to date highs at 1.15. A close today through 1.1250 will encourage bullish sentiment flipping the daily VWAP bullish and setting an interim equality objective at 1.1372. Failure to defend 1.1150 would open a move to test the downside equality objective at 1.1092</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46435" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55.png" alt="" width="2146" height="1236" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55.png 2146w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55-1024×590.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55-768×442.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55-1536×885.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.32.55-2048×1180.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2146px) 100vw, 2146px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.2324 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, 1.2324 equality downside objective achieved, buyers have stepped in again as of writing to defend the equality objective. On the day only a close back through 1.2440 would suggest a more meaningful low is in place for another attempt to take out stops above 1.28. A failure below 1.23 would open a move to test 1.21 UPDATE a second failure at 1.2250 will open a move to test bids back towards 1.21, however, if bulls can defend yesterday’s lows then there is a window to mount a corrective move back to test 1.2450 from below UPDATE as 1.25 caps current advance, potential for a retest of 1.2350 before higher again</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46436" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29.png" alt="" width="2142" height="1234" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29.png 2142w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29-1024×590.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29-768×442.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29-1536×885.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.33.29-2048×1180.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2142px) 100vw, 2142px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 106.75 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, as 106.75 supports there is a window for price to extend higher to test the equality objective at 108.13, watch for bearish reversal patterns in this area to see another test of 106 enroute to a pivotal 105 test</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46437" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19.png" alt="" width="2145" height="1186" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19.png 2145w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19-300×166.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19-1024×566.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19-768×425.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19-1536×849.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.19-2048×1132.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2145px) 100vw, 2145px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .6830 targeting .7150)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, after the rejection from above the .7050 level and the subsequent failure to hold .6900 as support, anticipate a test of the corrective equality objective back to .6650. Only a close back through .6910 would reignite bullish spirits suggesting the current correction is complete opening another run to test offers and stops above .7050 UPDATE As discussed in last week’s Chart Hit as .6830 attracts buyers there remains scope to retest and break prior cycle highs en route to a .7150 test. UPDATE failure to defend .6830 today will open a downside equality objective sighted at .6700</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46438" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56.png" alt="" width="2141" height="1236" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56.png 2141w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56-1024×591.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56-768×443.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56-1536×887.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-03-08.34.56-2048×1182.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2141px) 100vw, 2141px" /></p>
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