Daily Market Outlook, April 9, 2020

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, April 9, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><b>The Asian equity market is mostly up (apart from Japan)</b><span> after further strong gains on Wall Street yesterday. </span></p>
<p><b>The Brent crude oil price is holding above $33bbl </b><span>in hopes that today’s meeting of oil producers will agree on significant output cuts. </span></p>
<p><b>The number of confirmed global coronavirus cases has passed 1.5 million</b><span>. Rises in new infections in Italy and Spain have cast doubt on an early end to lockdowns. </span></p>
<p><b>In the UK, it was signalled that the lockdown would last past next week. The PM was confirmed to be still in intensive care</b><span>, but he was said to be ‘improving’ and sitting up. </span></p>
<p><b>In the US, the Senate seems likely to vote on a bill today to provide further support to small businesses.</b><span> </span></p>
<p><b>Senator Sanders has withdrawn from the Democratic Presidential nomination race, leaving former Vice President Biden as the challenger to President Trump.</b></p>
<p><b>OPEC members, along with some other key oil producers, are set to discuss some near-term limits on output today</b><span>. In recent weeks, the oil price has fallen to its lowest level in almost two decades. It has staged a modest recovery over the past week on hopes of an agreement, but it is still well below its level at the start of 2020. One potential impediment to a deal is that US oil producers may refuse to adhere to any limits even though President Trump has been calling for higher prices. </span></p>
<p><b>Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to make another attempt to agree on EU-wide fiscal stimulus measures to boost the economy after failing to reach a consensus during a marathon session on Tuesday</b><span>. A key stumbling block appears to be conditions attached to countries receiving support from the European Stability Mechanism. </span></p>
<p><b>There are a couple of timely measures in the US</b><span>. Weekly initial jobless claims have surged by almost 10 million over the past two weeks and a further rise of as much as 5 million is forecast for this week. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment measure, after falling in March, is likely to post a sharper decline in April. </span></p>
<p><b>Most European markets will be closed for holidays on Friday</b><span>. However, China and the US are forecast to reveal declines in the annual rate of CPI inflation for March. For the US, we expect a fall to 1.6% (from 2.3% in February) primarily due to the lower oil price. A further decline is likely next month.</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: 1.0750 (204M), 1.1100 (652M)</span></li>
<li><span>EURGBP: </span><b> </b><span>0.8835 (787M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: </span><b> 107.50 (1BLN), 107.60-70 (1.2BLN), 1</b><span>08.00 (662M)</span><b>, 108.40 (1.2BLN) 108.95-109.00 (1.3BLN)</b></li>
</ul>
<h3><b>Technical &amp; Trade Views</b></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD (Intraday bias: Bearish below 1.09 bullish above)</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, prices continue to rotate around the equality objective at 1.08, however, without a sustained break of 1.09, newly minted longs may throw in the towel exposing bids and stops below 1.0750, with bears likely to press for a retest of March lows. On the day only a close above 1.0915 would suggest stabilisation. UPDATE strong bids have emerged from the equality objective; a close today through 1.0870 will flip the daily chart bullish with an upside equality objective at 1.1278. UPDATE Daily chart has flipped bullish overnight consolidation will require a move through 1.890 to inject further upside momentum NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41522" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48.png" alt="" width="2056" height="1223" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48.png 2056w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48-300×178.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48-1024×609.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48-768×457.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48-1536×914.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.12.48-2048×1218.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2056px) 100vw, 2056px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.22 neutral below)</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, a move back through 1.22 would suggest a broader corrective phase to unwind near term overbought momentum, 1.20/1.1950 will be pivotal this week, if bulls fail to defend this area, a deeper decline could ensue to test bids and stops below 1.17 NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41523" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04.png" alt="" width="2061" height="1221" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04.png 2061w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04-300×178.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04-1024×607.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04-768×455.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04-1536×910.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.04-2048×1213.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2061px) 100vw, 2061px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY (intraday bias: Bearish below 110 bullish above)</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, double bottom delays downside objective with a whipsaw back to 110 before lower again. Through 107 would suggest downside targets are directly in play NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41524" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32.png" alt="" width="2066" height="1218" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32.png 2066w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32-300×177.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32-1024×604.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32-768×453.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32-1536×906.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.32-2048×1207.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2066px) 100vw, 2066px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above .6000 bearish below)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, defence of .5950 can set a platform for a move higher to test .6400. However, a failure at .5900 will open a deeper decline to test .5650. UPDATE pivotal test of .6200 underway a close through here will encourage a test of the .6400 upside objective, only a breach of .6000 on a closing basis would concern the near term bullish bias NO CHANGE IN VIEW</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41525" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59.png" alt="" width="2054" height="1218" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59.png 2054w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59-300×178.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59-1024×607.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59-768×455.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59-1536×911.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-09-08.13.59-2048×1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2054px) 100vw, 2054px" /></p>
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