Daily Market Outlook, April 8, 2020

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, April 8, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><b>Asian equity market performance is mixed this morning</b><span> after Wall Street ended yesterday almost unchanged. Brent crude oil is holding close to $33bbl in hopes that tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting will agree to production cuts. Reports from yesterday’s Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting suggests ongoing division on measures to boost the economy. </span></p>
<p><b>The global number of confirmed coronavirus cases has passed 1,430,000</b><span> but a number of countries are reporting signs of a slowdown. </span></p>
<p><b>Norway has joined Austria and Denmark in announcing that lockdown restrictions</b><span> will be eased from mid-April. Italy is also reported to be considering a possible relaxation. The White House is developing a reopening plan that relies on testing starting in the less affected areas. </span></p>
<p><b>The number of daily UK fatalities reached a record high yesterday</b><span>. PM Johnson remains in intensive care but is said to be stable.</span></p>
<p><b>The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its March policy meetings today</b><span>. Over the last few weeks the US central bank has announced a number of policy moves to help support the economy through the current crisis, including cutting interest rates close to zero and unlimited QE. Today’s minutes may give more insight of the reasoning behind those measures and the Fed’s assessment of the potential impact on the economy of the pandemic. They will also be read for any signs of potential future actions. </span></p>
<p><b>Government bond yields generally moved higher yesterday</b><span> as markets continued to focus on signs that lockdown restrictions in some economies will soon be eased. US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 0.70% and UK 10-year gilts yields above 0.40%. </span></p>
<p><b>The EUR moved higher yesterday,</b><span> possibly on hopes of an agreement on joint Eurozone fiscal measures, but has eased against the USD this morning as Eurozone officials failed to reach an agreement on a fiscal package after 16hrs of negotiations came to a standstill.</span></p>
<p><b>The RBA policy rate unchanged yesterday as expected, but it signalled the possibility of tapering bond purchases if market conditions continue to normalise</b><span>. However, it also signalled that an economic contraction is still expected in Q2 and that it will do what it can to support the economy. Can’t help but notice the contradiction there. The RBNZ put in a more consistent message, keeping the option open to increase the size and scope of its asset-purchase program to boost stimulus amid a “rapidly evolving” situation. </span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><b>1.0800 (1.2BLN), 1.0820-30 (1.5BLN), 1.0850 (1.3BLN) 1.0900 (1.2BLN)</b><span>, 1.0920 (250M), 1.0955-60 (650M)</span></li>
<li><span>EURGBP: </span><b>0.8700-10 (1.5BLN),</b><span> 0.8725 (280M), 0.8740 (450M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: </span><b>107.75 (1.8BLN)</b><span>, 1.0960 (260M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><b>Technical &amp; Trade Views</b></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD (Intraday bias: Bearish below 1.09 bullish above)</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, prices continue to rotate around the equality objective at 1.08, however, without a sustained break of 1.09, newly minted longs may throw in the towel exposing bids and stops below 1.0750, with bears likely to press for a retest of March lows. On the day only a close above 1.0915 would suggest stabilisation. UPDATE strong bids have emerged from the equality objective; a close today through 1.0870 will flip the daily chart bullish with an upside equality objective at 1.1278. UPDATE Daily chart has flipped bullish overnight consolidation will require a move through 1.890 to inject further upside momentum</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41446" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36.png" alt="" width="2052" height="1216" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36.png 2052w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36-300×178.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36-1024×607.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36-768×455.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36-1536×910.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.24.36-2048×1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2052px) 100vw, 2052px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.22 neutral below)</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, a move back through 1.22 would suggest a broader corrective phase to unwind near term overbought momentum, 1.20/1.1950 will be pivotal this week, if bulls fail to defend this area, a deeper decline could ensue to test bids and stops below 1.17</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41447" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26.png" alt="" width="2060" height="1218" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26.png 2060w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26-300×177.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26-1024×605.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26-768×454.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26-1536×908.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.26-2048×1211.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2060px) 100vw, 2060px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY (intraday bias: Bearish below 110 bullish above)</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, double bottom delays downside objective with a whipsaw back to 110 before lower again. Through 107 would suggest downside targets are directly in play</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41448" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41.png" alt="" width="2075" height="1223" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41.png 2075w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41-300×177.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41-1024×604.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41-768×453.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41-1536×905.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.41-2048×1207.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2075px) 100vw, 2075px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above .6000 bearish below)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, defence of .5950 can set a platform for a move higher to test .6400. However, a failure at .5900 will open a deeper decline to test .5650. UPDATE pivotal test of .6200 underway a close through here will encourage a test of the .6400 upside objective, only a breach of .6000 on a closing basis would concern the near term bullish bias</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41449" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55.png" alt="" width="2060" height="1221" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55.png 2060w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55-300×178.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55-1024×607.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55-768×455.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55-1536×910.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-08-08.25.55-2048×1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2060px) 100vw, 2060px" /></p>
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