Daily Market Outlook, April 24, 2020

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, April 24, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><strong>Asian stock market  was mostly lower overnight. A drugs trial for Covid-19 reportedly failed.</strong></p>
<p><span><strong>EU leaders agreed that a longer-term recovery fund is “needed and urgent”, but failed to agree</strong> on its details including how it would be funded. Further discussions will have to take place. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>More positive news is that China cut interest rates, while the US House of Representatives passed a €484bn aid package for small businesses</strong> and virus testing which President Trump is expected to sign today. In Italy, it was reported that the number of virus recoveries exceeded new infections for the first time.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Released earlier this morning, UK March retail sales including fuel fell 5.1%m/m, in line with market expectations.</strong> Grocery sales were up strongly by about 10%, but more than offset by a 19% fall in non-food sales (including a 35% drop in clothing). UK GfK consumer confidence was steady in April after falling sharply to -34 last month. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>UK PM Johnson may reportedly return to work as early as Monday.</strong> </span></p>
<p><span><strong>After yesterday’s rather ugly business surveys, we have one more to digest today that’s closely watched.</strong> Germany will release the April IFO survey which is expected to show another decline. The median consensus forecast is 79.7. The expectations component – having already fallen very sharply – might show a marginal improvement on hopes that lockdown measures will soon be eased and also on tentative signs of stabilisation in China’s economy. That would partly offset what is expected to be another sharp fall in the current assessment index. Still, following yesterday’s very weak PMI releases, the forecast risks are likely skewed to the downside. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>US durable goods orders are likely to be weak as the downturn hits a particularly cyclical part of the economy.</strong> The expected big hit to aerospace orders reflects the current problems of the airline industry, but also the issues that Boeing were having beforehand. Markets anticipate a downward revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April to 68.0 from the preliminary reading of 71.0 (it was 89.1 in March and 101.0 in February).</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: 1.0750 (310M), 1.0780-90 (680M) </span><b>1.0840-45 (1.0BLN)</b><span>, 1.0935 (310M).</span></li>
<li><span>GBPUSD: 1.2500 (230M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 107.50 (350M), 108.00 (260M), 109.00 (310M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><b>Technical &amp; Trade Views</b></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD (Intraday bias: Bearish below 1.09 targeting 1.0630 )</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, the market continues to rotate in a contracting range, a breach of 1.09 opens a move to test the recent swing high at and the initial equality objective sighted at 1.1036 through here bulls will eye 1.1150/70 as the next upside objective. Failure to sustain trade above 1.09 will likely pressure newly minted EURUSD longs a breach of 1.08 will open 1.0750 en-route to 1.0650</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42343" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50.png" alt="" width="2116" height="1195" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50.png 2116w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50-1024×578.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50-768×434.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50-1536×867.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.26.50-2048×1157.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2116px) 100vw, 2116px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.22 targeting 1.28)</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, a move back through 1.24 would suggest a broader corrective phase to unwind near term overbought momentum, 1.20/1.1950 will be pivotal this week, if bulls fail to defend this area, a deeper decline could ensue to test bids and stops below 1.17 UPDATE the bullish bias is under threat with yesterday’s sharp sell off opening the possibility of a deeper decline bulls will need to overcome symmetry swing resistance at 1.2385 to renew bullish spirits</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42344" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54.png" alt="" width="2117" height="1198" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54.png 2117w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54-300×170.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54-1024×579.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54-768×435.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54-1536×869.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.27.54-2048×1159.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2117px) 100vw, 2117px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY (intraday bias: Bearish below 109 targeting 1.0465)</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, double bottom delays downside objective with a whipsaw back to 110 before lower again. Through 107 would suggest downside targets are directly in play</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42345" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08.png" alt="" width="2126" height="1195" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08.png 2126w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08-1024×576.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08-768×432.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08-1536×863.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.29.08-2048×1151.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2126px) 100vw, 2126px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above .6200 targeting .6700)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as .6200 now acts as support look for a grind higher to set up a test of the pivotal .6430/90 area. A close through here sets bullish sights on the equality objective at .6695. Only a decline back though .6200 would concern the bullish bias.</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42346" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26.png" alt="" width="2115" height="1194" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26.png 2115w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26-300×169.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26-1024×578.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26-768×434.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26-1536×867.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-24-08.34.26-2048×1156.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2115px) 100vw, 2115px" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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