Daily Market Outlook, April 22, 2020

<p><b>The market remains risk-off amid the worries about oversupply of crude oil. </b><span>Asian stocks edged lower on Wednesday morning for a third day after a volatile session in the U.S. that ended lower. The collapse in U.S. crude prices is keeping a cap on those risky assets. As the difficulties of restarting the U.S. economy sank in, U.S. Treasury yields tumbled, with the five-year note hitting a new record low on rising prices for bonds: one of the safest assets. The risk aversion is likely to buoy safe havens, including USD, JPY and CHF and could lead to the fall of commodity currencies.</span></p>
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<p><span>Oil rallied in Asia after two days of spectacular sell-offs that saw prices turn negative for the first time on Monday. WTI June futures jumped 14% to around $13 a barrel after a sharp drop. With global oversupply a serious issue now, OPEC+ held an unscheduled conference call on Tuesday to discuss the rout but they haven’t announced anything yet.</span><b> OPEC agreed to cut production by about 10 million barrels a day earlier this month, but the cuts won’t be enough to balance out the demand destruction from the virus, which could be as high as 30 million barrels per day. It is too early to say the worst moment is over given current oversupply issues are not solved yet. </b></p>
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<p><b>The U.S. dollar rose to a two-week high against a basket of currencies, as investors fled riskier assets for the world’s most liquid currency while putting pressure on oil-linked currencies such as NOK and the CAD.</b><span> Gold prices slipped further despite the revived risk aversion as investors need cash to cover losses in the stock market.</span></p>
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<p><b>Copper fell back on Tuesday after a collapse in oil prices convinced traders that global demand destruction for commodities may be worse than feared. </b><span>Copper trading in New York fell by 7.3% to $2.1495 a pound ($4,740 a tonne) in early afternoon trade, a three-week low. Last month, the bellwether metal briefly traded below $2.00, levels last seen during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.</span></p>
<p><b>Technical &amp; Trade views</b></p>
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<p><b>USDCAD (</b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 1.4165 neutral below )</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-42197" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/1-22-1024×466.png" alt="" width="1024" height="466" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/1-22-1024×466.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/1-22-300×136.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/1-22-768×349.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/1-22.png 1044w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We turned bullish as price broke above upside confirmation,, which happens to be a confluence level of the 38.2% fibonacci retracement  and horizontal swing high. if price breaks above the upside confirmation, price is likely to bounce towards 1st resistance. </span></p>
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<p><b>UKOIL (</b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 13.02)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-42198" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2-18-1024×467.png" alt="" width="1024" height="467" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2-18-1024×467.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2-18-300×137.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2-18-768×350.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2-18.png 1052w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We turned bullish as price approached our 1st support. The 1st support happens to be a confluence level of the 127% fibonacci extension  and 161.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price is likely to bounce towards 1st resistance at 21.99 where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is.</span></p>
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<p><b>XAUUSD ( </b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 1642.36) </b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-42199" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/3-9-1024×465.png" alt="" width="1024" height="465" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/3-9-1024×465.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/3-9-300×136.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/3-9-768×349.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/3-9.png 1050w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We remain bullish technically as the price is approaching 1st support at 1642.36  towards 1st resistance is where the 100% fibonacci extension is. The 1st support happens to be where 38.2% fibonacci retracement is and could serve as a key support level. </span></p>
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<p><b>XCUUSD ( </b><b>Intraday bias: Bearish below  2.2476)</b></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-42200" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/4-7-1024×471.png" alt="" width="1024" height="471" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/4-7-1024×471.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/4-7-300×138.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/4-7-768×353.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/4-7.png 1054w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><span>We turned bearish as price is approaching 1st resistance where the 50% fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap line up.  Price is likely to reverse off 1st resistance towards 1st support.</span></p>
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