Daily Market Outlook, April 21, 2020
<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, April 21, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><b>The Asian market is down this morning following declines on Wall Street yesterday. </b></p>
<p><b>A historic day of trading in the oil market saw the West Texas Intermediate price (to deliver in about a week’s time) drop below zero</b><span>. At one point traders were paying more than $30bbl to have oil taken off their hands. The move reflects a lack of storage capacity given the collapse in demand. Other oil prices also moved down, with Brent crude currently at around $25bbl. </span></p>
<p><b>US President Trump announced that he will temporarily suspend all immigration to the US citing concerns about Covid-19</b><span> and an intention to preserve US jobs. </span></p>
<p><b>Speaker Pelosi of the lower house of Congress said she was confident that a deal on further fiscal stimulus is imminent</b><span>. </span></p>
<p><b>The UK labour market report for the three months to February showed a larger than expected rise in employment (of 172k)</b><span>, a modest increase in the unemployment rate to 4% from 3.8% and some slippage in wage growth. The timelier data for March jobless claims, which will have been collected before the lockdown started to bite, rose by more than expected as the market began to cool.</span></p>
<p><b>Today’s German ZEW survey will provide one of the first indications of the strength of the Eurozone economy in April</b><span>. As the respondents are financial analysts the report can be a less reliable gauge of activity than the PMI and IFO surveys that will be released later in the week. However, it often gets attention from markets because of its timeliness and its expectation component has sometimes proved to be a good leading indicator. Germany has now started to ease lockdown restrictions but, as these have been in place for most of the month, it is likely that today’s report will show a further fall in current conditions. However, it will be interesting to see whether the signs that pandemic is peaking in Germany leads to any improvement in expectations. </span></p>
<p><b>The March UK CPI, which will be released early Wednesday, is forecast to show a relatively modest deceleration in inflation</b><span>. The data will have been collected too early in the month to show the impact of the lockdown. However, annual inflation is likely to have fallen primarily due to the drop in oil prices. Inflation seems set to fall further in the coming months and is expected to drop below 1.0% near term. </span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><span>1.0745 (250M), 1.0835 (316M), 1.0915 (260M)</span></li>
<li><span>GBPUSD: 1.2600 (240M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 106.80 (645M), 107.00-05 (1BLN), 107.25-35 (600M), 108.25 (300M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><b>Technical & Trade Views</b></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.09 targeting 1.1250 Bearish below targeting 1.0630 )</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, the market continues to rotate in a contracting range, a breach of 1.09 opens a move to test the recent swing high at and the initial equality objective sighted at 1.1036 through here bulls will eye 1.1150/70 as the next upside objective. Failure to sustain trade above 1.09 will likely pressure newly minted EURUSD longs a breach of 1.08 will open 1.0750 en-route to 1.0650</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42133" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38.png" alt="" width="2113" height="1221" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38.png 2113w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38-1024×592.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38-768×444.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38-1536×888.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.38-2048×1183.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2113px) 100vw, 2113px" /></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>GBPUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above 1.22 targeting 1.28)</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, a move back through 1.24 would suggest a broader corrective phase to unwind near term overbought momentum, 1.20/1.1950 will be pivotal this week, if bulls fail to defend this area, a deeper decline could ensue to test bids and stops below 1.17 </span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42134" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50.png" alt="" width="2115" height="1221" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50.png 2115w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50-1024×591.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50-768×443.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50-1536×887.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.47.50-2048×1182.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2115px) 100vw, 2115px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY (intraday bias: Bearish below 109 targeting 1.0465)</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, double bottom delays downside objective with a whipsaw back to 110 before lower again. Through 107 would suggest downside targets are directly in play</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42135" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04.png" alt="" width="2124" height="1222" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04.png 2124w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04-1024×589.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04-768×442.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04-1536×884.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.04-2048×1178.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2124px) 100vw, 2124px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD (Intraday bias: Bullish above .6200 targeting .6700)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as .6200 now acts as support look for a grind higher to set up a test of the pivotal .6430/90 area. A close through here sets bullish sights on the equality objective at .6695. Only a decline back though .6200 would concert the bullish bias. </span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-42136" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19.png" alt="" width="2112" height="1222" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19.png 2112w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19-300×174.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19-1024×592.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19-768×444.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19-1536×889.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screenshot-2020-04-21-08.48.19-2048×1185.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2112px) 100vw, 2112px" /></p>
<p><i><span>Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.</span></i></p>
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