Daily Commodity Outlook, July 3 2020

<p><span>Asian stocks began Friday by following Wall Street modestly higher after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report overshadowed concerns that new coronavirus hotspots could disrupt the economic recovery. The market is still risk-on as the stock market keeps going higher. But today is the U.S. holiday, we might see a thin volume in both stock and forex trading.</span></p>
<p><span>USD is traded in a tight range on Friday. Relations between the U.S. and China have spurred the need for safe havens. The U.S. The Senate unanimously approved legislation on Thursday to penalize banks doing business with Chinese officials who implement Beijing’s new national security law for Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 cases have been surging in Florida and Texas, which bring concerns back on the economy’s recovery.</span></p>
<p><span>Copper prices retreated from their recent highs as the world battles with a second wave of pandemic which resulted in a weak demand for the metal outside of China. In line with the fundamentals, prices are testing a key resistance level in line with a bearish divergence seen where we could be seeing further downside in prices. </span></p>
<p><span>Gold prices are set to continue on its uptrend after yesterday’s pullback, as the solid US jobs data lifted investors’ risk appetite. Looking ahead, we maintain a bullish bias on Gold as the surging number of Covid-19 cases worldwide along with lingering US-Sino tensions could boost demand for the safe-haven asset.</span></p>
<p><span>Oil prices looks set to end the week higher despite slipping this Friday, during the Asian trading session. This is due to the results of aggressive supply cuts and better than expected US NFP results. Both these positive news seemed to have overshadowed the exploding numbers of coronavirus cases coming out of multiple states, with US Texas being hit the hardest. CAD however seems muted against the USD, probably because the USD strengthened on strong economic data.</span></p>
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<p><b>Technical &amp; Trade views</b></p>
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<p><b>USDCAD (</b><b>Intraday bias: bullish above 1.3547)<br />
<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-46442" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-2-1024×501.png" alt="" width="1024" height="501" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-2-1024×501.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-2-300×147.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-2-768×376.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usdcad-2.png 1110w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><br />
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<p><span>We turned bullish if price approaches 1st support where the horizontal overlap support joins 76% fib retracement. Price is likely to bounce further from there towards 1st resistance where the horizontal overlap resistance is.</span></p>
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<p><b>UKOIL (</b><b>Intraday bias: Bearish below 42.92)<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-46443" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-2-1024×497.png" alt="" width="1024" height="497" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-2-1024×497.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-2-300×146.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-2-768×373.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ukoil-2.png 1110w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><br />
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<p><span>Oil drifted higher however it failed to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci extension level. With stochastics reacting below support, a short term pullback towards 1st support at 42.07 is possible before any chance for a further rise.</span></p>
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<p><b>XAUUSD ( </b><b>Intraday bias: Bullish above 1765.15)<br />
<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-46444" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-2-1024×535.png" alt="" width="1024" height="535" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-2-1024×535.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-2-300×157.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-2-768×401.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xauusd-2.png 1110w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><br />
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<p><span>Price is testing our first support in line with our ascending trend line, 61.8% retracement, horizontal overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci extension, where we could see a bounce above this level to our first resistance level. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bullish pressure in line with our bullish bias. </span></p>
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<p><b>XCUUSD ( </b><b>Intraday bias: bearish below 2.76608)<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-46445" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-2-1024×486.png" alt="" width="1024" height="486" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-2-1024×486.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-2-300×142.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-2-768×364.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/xcuusd-2.png 1113w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><br />
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<p><span>Price is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance where we remain bearish below this level and could see a further drop to our first support level, in line with our horizontal pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension. A break below our ascending trend line could provide the bearish acceleration to our first support target. Stochastic is seeing a bearish divergence and facing bearish pressure from our resistance as well. </span></p>
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