COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="463717" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #463717;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215193" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday August 15th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="0d121c" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0d121c;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215194" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (41,162 contracts) with the VIX (18,419 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (16,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-7,252 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-6,768 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-34 contracts) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (-587 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Aug-15-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>S&P500-Mini</td>
<td>2,220,084</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>-118,408</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>96,147</td>
<td>53</td>
<td>22,261</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225</td>
<td>16,974</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>-700</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-596</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>1,296</td>
<td>45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq-Mini</td>
<td>267,495</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>5,169</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>-4,716</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>-453</td>
<td>53</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>DowJones-Mini</td>
<td>104,216</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>-3,221</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>2,879</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>342</td>
<td>46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VIX</td>
<td>395,240</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>-25,985</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>31,613</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-5,628</td>
<td>67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225 Yen</td>
<td>51,699</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>5,860</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>14,729</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>-20,589</td>
<td>40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="1c2d49" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1c2d49;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215196" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.6 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (47.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (40.9 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (64.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.3 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (80.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (29.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.3 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (64.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.7 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (15.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>Nikkei 225 & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="1c1010" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1c1010;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215195" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (36 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (28 percent), the VIX (21 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (21.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.8 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (65.0 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (-2.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.5 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (35.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.4 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (-14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.5 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/VIX-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/VIX-08-18-2023.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,404 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">25.9</td>
<td width="189">42.2</td>
<td width="187">5.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">32.4</td>
<td width="189">34.2</td>
<td width="187">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-25,985</td>
<td width="189">31,613</td>
<td width="187">-5,628</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">102,229</td>
<td width="189">166,941</td>
<td width="187">22,357</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">128,214</td>
<td width="189">135,328</td>
<td width="187">27,985</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">100.0</td>
<td width="189">0.0</td>
<td width="187">67.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">21.1</td>
<td width="189">-18.8</td>
<td width="187">-12.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ES-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ES-08-18-2023.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -118,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,570 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.7</td>
<td width="189">73.6</td>
<td width="187">11.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.0</td>
<td width="189">69.3</td>
<td width="187">10.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-118,408</td>
<td width="189">96,147</td>
<td width="187">22,261</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">258,924</td>
<td width="189">1,634,627</td>
<td width="187">263,621</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">377,332</td>
<td width="189">1,538,480</td>
<td width="187">241,360</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">47.1</td>
<td width="189">53.2</td>
<td width="187">52.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">13.2</td>
<td width="189">-15.1</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/YM-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/YM-08-18-2023.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,031 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">31.0</td>
<td width="189">51.7</td>
<td width="187">13.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">34.0</td>
<td width="189">49.0</td>
<td width="187">13.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-3,221</td>
<td width="189">2,879</td>
<td width="187">342</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">32,257</td>
<td width="189">53,909</td>
<td width="187">14,419</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">35,478</td>
<td width="189">51,030</td>
<td width="187">14,077</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">64.8</td>
<td width="189">39.7</td>
<td width="187">45.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">27.9</td>
<td width="189">-23.0</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/NQ-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/NQ-08-18-2023.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,879 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">26.0</td>
<td width="189">56.7</td>
<td width="187">15.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">24.0</td>
<td width="189">58.4</td>
<td width="187">15.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">5,169</td>
<td width="189">-4,716</td>
<td width="187">-453</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">69,459</td>
<td width="189">151,549</td>
<td width="187">40,682</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">64,290</td>
<td width="189">156,265</td>
<td width="187">41,135</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">80.2</td>
<td width="189">19.6</td>
<td width="187">52.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-0.2</td>
<td width="189">-0.5</td>
<td width="187">2.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ER2-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ER2-08-18-2023.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,511 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.2</td>
<td width="189">83.9</td>
<td width="187">4.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.8</td>
<td width="189">71.0</td>
<td width="187">4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-71,279</td>
<td width="189">67,827</td>
<td width="187">3,452</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">48,652</td>
<td width="189">441,976</td>
<td width="187">26,060</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">119,931</td>
<td width="189">374,149</td>
<td width="187">22,608</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">29.2</td>
<td width="189">68.6</td>
<td width="187">37.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-2.3</td>
<td width="189">2.2</td>
<td width="187">-0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/NKD-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/NKD-08-18-2023.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -666 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">13.2</td>
<td width="189">61.8</td>
<td width="187">25.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.3</td>
<td width="189">65.3</td>
<td width="187">17.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-700</td>
<td width="189">-596</td>
<td width="187">1,296</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,242</td>
<td width="189">10,489</td>
<td width="187">4,243</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">2,942</td>
<td width="189">11,085</td>
<td width="187">2,947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.4 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">64.5</td>
<td width="189">32.3</td>
<td width="187">44.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">35.8</td>
<td width="189">-32.0</td>
<td width="187">-2.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EMI-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EMI-08-18-2023.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,909 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Sell – Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.4</td>
<td width="189">89.1</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">13.2</td>
<td width="189">84.9</td>
<td width="187">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-23,496</td>
<td width="189">16,838</td>
<td width="187">6,658</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">29,476</td>
<td width="189">356,117</td>
<td width="187">11,619</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">52,972</td>
<td width="189">339,279</td>
<td width="187">4,961</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">2.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">15.5</td>
<td width="189">79.4</td>
<td width="187">50.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-14.4</td>
<td width="189">8.6</td>
<td width="187">23.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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