COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500 & Russell
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="463717" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #463717;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217737" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday January 16th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="0b0e12" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0b0e12;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217736" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX with a small gain of 409 contracts for the week.</p>
<p>The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-52,197 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-6,767 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-6,692 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-1,820 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-969 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-205 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<h3>Major Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard</h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks_Leaderboard-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="212121" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #212121;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217746" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks_Leaderboard-1.png" alt="" width="567" height="217" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks_Leaderboard-1.png 567w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks_Leaderboard-1-160×61.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks_Leaderboard-1-150×57.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Legend:</strong> Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="1e3152" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1e3152;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217735" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent), the Russell-Mini (95 percent), the DowJones-Mini (89 percent) and the VIX (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (80.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.8 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (39.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (47.3 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (89.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (100.0 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (95.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (95.6 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (95.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (100.0 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (34.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.7 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.3 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>Russell-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="1e1111" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1e1111;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217734" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (49 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent), the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (20 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The Nikkei 225 (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the S&P500-Mini (-18 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (8.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (2.3 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (-18.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-7.8 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.6 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (43.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (45.4 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (49.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (54.3 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (-19.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-2.1 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (20.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (34.1 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/VIX-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/VIX-01-19-2024.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,169 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19.7</td>
<td width="189">47.6</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">31.9</td>
<td width="189">34.2</td>
<td width="187">8.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-43,760</td>
<td width="189">48,439</td>
<td width="187">-4,679</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">70,938</td>
<td width="189">171,136</td>
<td width="187">26,368</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">114,698</td>
<td width="189">122,697</td>
<td width="187">31,047</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">80.0</td>
<td width="189">19.4</td>
<td width="187">72.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">8.7</td>
<td width="189">-6.1</td>
<td width="187">-18.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ES-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ES-01-19-2024.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -169,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -52,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,049 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.7</td>
<td width="189">73.6</td>
<td width="187">11.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.4</td>
<td width="189">69.0</td>
<td width="187">8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-169,246</td>
<td width="189">102,434</td>
<td width="187">66,812</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">260,119</td>
<td width="189">1,632,215</td>
<td width="187">263,465</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">429,365</td>
<td width="189">1,529,781</td>
<td width="187">196,653</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">39.5</td>
<td width="189">54.0</td>
<td width="187">63.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-18.2</td>
<td width="189">14.1</td>
<td width="187">7.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/YM-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/YM-01-19-2024.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,079 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">33.3</td>
<td width="189">50.1</td>
<td width="187">14.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">15.6</td>
<td width="189">68.0</td>
<td width="187">14.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">17,387</td>
<td width="189">-17,616</td>
<td width="187">229</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">32,708</td>
<td width="189">49,137</td>
<td width="187">14,319</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">15,321</td>
<td width="189">66,753</td>
<td width="187">14,090</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">2.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">89.1</td>
<td width="189">11.5</td>
<td width="187">45.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">27.9</td>
<td width="189">-30.1</td>
<td width="187">16.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NQ-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NQ-01-19-2024.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,776 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">30.6</td>
<td width="189">54.8</td>
<td width="187">14.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.2</td>
<td width="189">69.0</td>
<td width="187">13.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">36,571</td>
<td width="189">-38,733</td>
<td width="187">2,162</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">83,692</td>
<td width="189">149,969</td>
<td width="187">38,187</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">47,121</td>
<td width="189">188,702</td>
<td width="187">36,025</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">95.2</td>
<td width="189">9.5</td>
<td width="187">83.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">43.4</td>
<td width="189">-27.7</td>
<td width="187">-8.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ER2-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ER2-01-19-2024.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,012 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">18.2</td>
<td width="189">74.9</td>
<td width="187">6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">15.3</td>
<td width="189">79.7</td>
<td width="187">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">14,245</td>
<td width="189">-23,482</td>
<td width="187">9,237</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">89,004</td>
<td width="189">366,952</td>
<td width="187">30,721</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">74,759</td>
<td width="189">390,434</td>
<td width="187">21,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.4 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">95.2</td>
<td width="189">5.4</td>
<td width="187">60.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">49.4</td>
<td width="189">-47.7</td>
<td width="187">15.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NKD-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NKD-01-19-2024.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,658 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.7</td>
<td width="189">67.6</td>
<td width="187">20.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">37.0</td>
<td width="189">48.9</td>
<td width="187">14.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-4,478</td>
<td width="189">3,317</td>
<td width="187">1,161</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,076</td>
<td width="189">11,981</td>
<td width="187">3,669</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">6,554</td>
<td width="189">8,664</td>
<td width="187">2,508</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">34.8</td>
<td width="189">56.1</td>
<td width="187">55.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-19.7</td>
<td width="189">13.9</td>
<td width="187">8.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/EMI-01-19-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/EMI-01-19-2024.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -30,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,126 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.0</td>
<td width="189">89.5</td>
<td width="187">3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.0</td>
<td width="189">83.7</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-30,095</td>
<td width="189">24,686</td>
<td width="187">5,409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">29,826</td>
<td width="189">381,532</td>
<td width="187">13,776</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">59,921</td>
<td width="189">356,846</td>
<td width="187">8,367</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">35.3</td>
<td width="189">62.4</td>
<td width="187">44.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">20.5</td>
<td width="189">-20.8</td>
<td width="187">2.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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