COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led this week by VIX & Russell-Mini
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="473716" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #473716;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217142" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-2.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-2.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-2-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-2-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday December 12th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by the VIX & Russell-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="0c1016" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0c1016;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217139" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (10,461 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,800 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,143 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-17,822 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,851 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-627 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-298 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Dec-12-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>S&P500-Mini</td>
<td>2,670,454</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>-65,083</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>21,495</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>43,588</td>
<td>55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225</td>
<td>14,756</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>-2,317</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>1,807</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>510</td>
<td>45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq-Mini</td>
<td>337,236</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>8,104</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>-10,817</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>2,713</td>
<td>90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>DowJones-Mini</td>
<td>112,076</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>3,451</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>199</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>-3,650</td>
<td>26</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VIX</td>
<td>427,229</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>-46,316</td>
<td>78</td>
<td>45,724</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>592</td>
<td>99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225 Yen</td>
<td>40,280</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>9,714</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>-3,881</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-5,833</td>
<td>89</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="1b2a45" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1b2a45;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217140" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (64 percent) and S&P500-Mini (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above a 50 percent score.</p>
<p>On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (78.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (71.3 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.7 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (87.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (51.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (51.9 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (45.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.2 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (50.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.5 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (9.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.1 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-3.png"><img data-dominant-color="1a1111" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1a1111;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217141" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-3.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-3.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-3-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-3-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-3-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) overwhelmingly leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (2 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-10 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (-21.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-23.6 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (-10.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.6 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (85.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.4 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (2.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (-7.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.4 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (-3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.1 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/VIX-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/VIX-12-15-2023.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,777 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">22.8</td>
<td width="189">47.6</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">33.7</td>
<td width="189">36.9</td>
<td width="187">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-46,316</td>
<td width="189">45,724</td>
<td width="187">592</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">97,484</td>
<td width="189">203,215</td>
<td width="187">31,240</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">143,800</td>
<td width="189">157,491</td>
<td width="187">30,648</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">78.3</td>
<td width="189">17.6</td>
<td width="187">99.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-21.7</td>
<td width="189">17.6</td>
<td width="187">27.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ES-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ES-12-15-2023.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -65,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,261 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Buy – Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.6</td>
<td width="189">70.7</td>
<td width="187">11.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">12.1</td>
<td width="189">69.9</td>
<td width="187">9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-65,083</td>
<td width="189">21,495</td>
<td width="187">43,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">257,533</td>
<td width="189">1,888,239</td>
<td width="187">306,616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">322,616</td>
<td width="189">1,866,744</td>
<td width="187">263,028</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">55.0</td>
<td width="189">42.9</td>
<td width="187">54.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-10.4</td>
<td width="189">7.7</td>
<td width="187">5.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/YM-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/YM-12-15-2023.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 308 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">23.2</td>
<td width="189">58.7</td>
<td width="187">12.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">20.1</td>
<td width="189">58.5</td>
<td width="187">16.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">3,451</td>
<td width="189">199</td>
<td width="187">-3,650</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">25,968</td>
<td width="189">65,779</td>
<td width="187">14,302</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22,517</td>
<td width="189">65,580</td>
<td width="187">17,952</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">87.6</td>
<td width="189">28.5</td>
<td width="187">26.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">85.5</td>
<td width="189">-68.2</td>
<td width="187">4.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NQ-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NQ-12-15-2023.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,402 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">21.2</td>
<td width="189">62.9</td>
<td width="187">13.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.8</td>
<td width="189">66.1</td>
<td width="187">12.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">8,104</td>
<td width="189">-10,817</td>
<td width="187">2,713</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">71,616</td>
<td width="189">212,001</td>
<td width="187">44,538</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">63,512</td>
<td width="189">222,818</td>
<td width="187">41,825</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">51.4</td>
<td width="189">30.9</td>
<td width="187">89.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">2.1</td>
<td width="189">-5.4</td>
<td width="187">8.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ER2-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ER2-12-15-2023.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -50,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,429 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.2</td>
<td width="189">80.4</td>
<td width="187">6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.2</td>
<td width="189">73.6</td>
<td width="187">5.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-50,629</td>
<td width="189">43,204</td>
<td width="187">7,425</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">65,483</td>
<td width="189">513,991</td>
<td width="187">39,542</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">116,112</td>
<td width="189">470,787</td>
<td width="187">32,117</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">45.3</td>
<td width="189">53.2</td>
<td width="187">49.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-7.3</td>
<td width="189">1.3</td>
<td width="187">27.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NKD-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NKD-12-15-2023.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,690 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Buy – Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.9</td>
<td width="189">66.1</td>
<td width="187">21.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.6</td>
<td width="189">53.8</td>
<td width="187">17.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-2,317</td>
<td width="189">1,807</td>
<td width="187">510</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,910</td>
<td width="189">9,748</td>
<td width="187">3,098</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">4,227</td>
<td width="189">7,941</td>
<td width="187">2,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">50.1</td>
<td width="189">46.9</td>
<td width="187">45.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-3.1</td>
<td width="189">4.4</td>
<td width="187">-4.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/EMI-12-15-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/EMI-12-15-2023.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -54,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,858 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Buy – Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.0</td>
<td width="189">92.0</td>
<td width="187">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.0</td>
<td width="189">81.0</td>
<td width="187">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-54,709</td>
<td width="189">50,564</td>
<td width="187">4,145</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">22,631</td>
<td width="189">419,808</td>
<td width="187">9,840</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">77,340</td>
<td width="189">369,244</td>
<td width="187">5,695</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">9.3</td>
<td width="189">89.5</td>
<td width="187">37.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-9.1</td>
<td width="189">5.7</td>
<td width="187">16.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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