COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by S&P500 & Russell
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison1.png"><img data-dominant-color="463717" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #463717;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217568" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison1.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison1.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison1-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison1-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday January 9th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="0b0d12" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0b0d12;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217569" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a strong weekly gain by 97,039 contracts. Coming in next was the Russell-Mini (21,933 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,603 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,537 contracts), the VIX (823 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (762 contracts) also recording positive weekly gains.</p>
<p>The only market with a drop in speculator bets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a decline by -2,291 contracts on the week.</p>
<hr />
<h3>Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard</h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/stocks_leaderboard.png"><img data-dominant-color="0d0d0d" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0d0d0d;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217587" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/stocks_leaderboard.png" alt="" width="567" height="217" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/stocks_leaderboard.png 567w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/stocks_leaderboard-160×61.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/stocks_leaderboard-150×57.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Legend:</strong> Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="1f3457" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1f3457;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217570" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week at their top levels of the past three years. The Nasdaq-Mini (96 percent) and VIX (80 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the S&P500-Mini (47 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (79.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.2 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (47.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.8 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.6 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (95.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (99.1 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (84.4 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (47.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.3 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (36.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="201011" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #201011;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217571" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (80 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (54 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (45 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The S&P500-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with a lower trend score.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (2.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.6 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-20.0 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (79.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.1 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (45.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (54.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (40.0 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-8.4 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.3 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/VIX-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/VIX-01-12-2024.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,992 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19.6</td>
<td width="189">48.3</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">32.1</td>
<td width="189">33.9</td>
<td width="187">9.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-44,169</td>
<td width="189">51,245</td>
<td width="187">-7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">69,775</td>
<td width="189">171,526</td>
<td width="187">25,924</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">113,944</td>
<td width="189">120,281</td>
<td width="187">33,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">79.8</td>
<td width="189">21.2</td>
<td width="187">60.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">2.3</td>
<td width="189">1.7</td>
<td width="187">-30.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ES-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ES-01-12-2024.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -117,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 97,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,088 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.3</td>
<td width="189">72.5</td>
<td width="187">12.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.6</td>
<td width="189">71.8</td>
<td width="187">8.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-117,049</td>
<td width="189">15,495</td>
<td width="187">101,554</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">272,247</td>
<td width="189">1,602,234</td>
<td width="187">278,896</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">389,296</td>
<td width="189">1,586,739</td>
<td width="187">177,342</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">47.3</td>
<td width="189">42.0</td>
<td width="187">77.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-7.8</td>
<td width="189">-0.9</td>
<td width="187">23.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/YM-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/YM-01-12-2024.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,542 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">35.8</td>
<td width="189">47.8</td>
<td width="187">13.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">12.5</td>
<td width="189">72.4</td>
<td width="187">12.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">24,079</td>
<td width="189">-25,433</td>
<td width="187">1,354</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">36,987</td>
<td width="189">49,419</td>
<td width="187">14,256</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">12,908</td>
<td width="189">74,852</td>
<td width="187">12,902</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">2.9 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">100.0</td>
<td width="189">0.0</td>
<td width="187">50.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">79.6</td>
<td width="189">-80.7</td>
<td width="187">30.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NQ-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NQ-01-12-2024.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,067 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">29.9</td>
<td width="189">54.2</td>
<td width="187">15.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.7</td>
<td width="189">69.6</td>
<td width="187">13.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">36,776</td>
<td width="189">-42,601</td>
<td width="187">5,825</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">83,021</td>
<td width="189">150,591</td>
<td width="187">42,040</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">46,245</td>
<td width="189">193,192</td>
<td width="187">36,215</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">95.6</td>
<td width="189">5.2</td>
<td width="187">93.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">45.4</td>
<td width="189">-35.0</td>
<td width="187">6.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ER2-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ER2-01-12-2024.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -921 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19.0</td>
<td width="189">74.3</td>
<td width="187">6.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.8</td>
<td width="189">80.7</td>
<td width="187">3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">21,012</td>
<td width="189">-31,976</td>
<td width="187">10,964</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">94,710</td>
<td width="189">370,642</td>
<td width="187">30,111</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">73,698</td>
<td width="189">402,618</td>
<td width="187">19,147</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">100.0</td>
<td width="189">0.0</td>
<td width="187">65.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">54.3</td>
<td width="189">-53.9</td>
<td width="187">25.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NKD-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NKD-01-12-2024.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,420 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.7</td>
<td width="189">64.4</td>
<td width="187">23.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.8</td>
<td width="189">53.3</td>
<td width="187">17.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-2,658</td>
<td width="189">1,724</td>
<td width="187">934</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,811</td>
<td width="189">9,991</td>
<td width="187">3,702</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">4,469</td>
<td width="189">8,267</td>
<td width="187">2,768</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">47.7</td>
<td width="189">46.4</td>
<td width="187">52.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-2.1</td>
<td width="189">1.3</td>
<td width="187">1.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/EMI-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/EMI-01-12-2024.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,729 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.1</td>
<td width="189">89.0</td>
<td width="187">3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">13.9</td>
<td width="189">83.6</td>
<td width="187">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-29,126</td>
<td width="189">22,977</td>
<td width="187">6,149</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">30,146</td>
<td width="189">379,373</td>
<td width="187">15,395</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">59,272</td>
<td width="189">356,396</td>
<td width="187">9,246</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">36.3</td>
<td width="189">60.6</td>
<td width="187">47.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">34.1</td>
<td width="189">-35.1</td>
<td width="187">6.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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