COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by DowJones & S&P500 Minis

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="463717" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #463717;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217010" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday December 5th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini &amp; S&amp;P500-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="0e131c" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0e131c;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217011" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (24,916 contracts) with the S&amp;P500-Mini (17,766 contracts) the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,174 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (2,394 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,124 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (670 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (64 contracts),also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The only market with a decline in the speculator bets this week was the VIX (-9,241 contracts).</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Dec-05-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P500-Mini</td>
<td>2,314,400</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>-47,261</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>-95</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>47,356</td>
<td>56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225</td>
<td>19,914</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-1,690</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>1,036</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>654</td>
<td>39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq-Mini</td>
<td>277,746</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>8,402</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>-13,580</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>5,178</td>
<td>85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>DowJones-Mini</td>
<td>94,870</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>308</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>2,833</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>-3,141</td>
<td>29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VIX</td>
<td>406,711</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>-56,777</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>57,871</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>-1,094</td>
<td>91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225 Yen</td>
<td>65,677</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>17,459</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>2,061</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>-19,520</td>
<td>44</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini &amp; VIX</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="1a2a44" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1a2a44;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217009" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (81 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (71 percent) and S&amp;P500-Mini (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (71.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.5 percent)<br />
S&amp;P500-Mini (57.7 percent) vs S&amp;P500-Mini previous week (55.0 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (80.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (51.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.1 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (42.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.1 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (54.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (49.8 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="1b1111" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1b1111;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217040" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The  Nasdaq-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (-23.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (-16.5 percent)<br />
S&amp;P500-Mini (-8.6 percent) vs S&amp;P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (78.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (8.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.7 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-33.3 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/VIX-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/VIX-12-08-2023.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,536 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Sell – Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">22.6</td>
<td width="189">49.9</td>
<td width="187">6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">36.6</td>
<td width="189">35.7</td>
<td width="187">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-56,777</td>
<td width="189">57,871</td>
<td width="187">-1,094</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">92,021</td>
<td width="189">202,889</td>
<td width="187">27,743</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">148,798</td>
<td width="189">145,018</td>
<td width="187">28,837</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">71.3</td>
<td width="189">25.5</td>
<td width="187">90.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-23.6</td>
<td width="189">20.7</td>
<td width="187">17.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&amp;P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ES-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ES-12-08-2023.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&amp;P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,027 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&amp;P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.4</td>
<td width="189">73.7</td>
<td width="187">11.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">13.5</td>
<td width="189">73.7</td>
<td width="187">9.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-47,261</td>
<td width="189">-95</td>
<td width="187">47,356</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">264,209</td>
<td width="189">1,706,068</td>
<td width="187">261,634</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">311,470</td>
<td width="189">1,706,163</td>
<td width="187">214,278</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">57.7</td>
<td width="189">39.9</td>
<td width="187">56.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-8.6</td>
<td width="189">4.8</td>
<td width="187">9.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/YM-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/YM-12-08-2023.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Buy – Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">27.7</td>
<td width="189">56.4</td>
<td width="187">13.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.3</td>
<td width="189">53.4</td>
<td width="187">17.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">308</td>
<td width="189">2,833</td>
<td width="187">-3,141</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">26,253</td>
<td width="189">53,465</td>
<td width="187">13,228</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25,945</td>
<td width="189">50,632</td>
<td width="187">16,369</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">80.8</td>
<td width="189">32.9</td>
<td width="187">28.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">78.4</td>
<td width="189">-62.1</td>
<td width="187">2.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NQ-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NQ-12-08-2023.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,278 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">27.1</td>
<td width="189">56.0</td>
<td width="187">14.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">24.1</td>
<td width="189">60.8</td>
<td width="187">13.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">8,402</td>
<td width="189">-13,580</td>
<td width="187">5,178</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">75,200</td>
<td width="189">155,418</td>
<td width="187">41,346</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">66,798</td>
<td width="189">168,998</td>
<td width="187">36,168</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">51.9</td>
<td width="189">27.4</td>
<td width="187">85.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">8.8</td>
<td width="189">-11.8</td>
<td width="187">8.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ER2-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ER2-12-08-2023.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,493 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.4</td>
<td width="189">81.8</td>
<td width="187">4.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.3</td>
<td width="189">72.6</td>
<td width="187">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-55,429</td>
<td width="189">50,900</td>
<td width="187">4,529</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">69,069</td>
<td width="189">455,710</td>
<td width="187">27,535</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">124,498</td>
<td width="189">404,810</td>
<td width="187">23,006</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">42.2</td>
<td width="189">57.7</td>
<td width="187">40.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-7.4</td>
<td width="189">3.7</td>
<td width="187">15.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NKD-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NKD-12-08-2023.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,360 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Buy – Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.2</td>
<td width="189">68.2</td>
<td width="187">19.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.7</td>
<td width="189">63.0</td>
<td width="187">16.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,690</td>
<td width="189">1,036</td>
<td width="187">654</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,029</td>
<td width="189">13,587</td>
<td width="187">3,953</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">3,719</td>
<td width="189">12,551</td>
<td width="187">3,299</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">54.5</td>
<td width="189">42.2</td>
<td width="187">39.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">3.1</td>
<td width="189">2.1</td>
<td width="187">-10.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/EMI-12-08-2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/EMI-12-08-2023.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,032 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.5</td>
<td width="189">91.0</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.8</td>
<td width="189">79.9</td>
<td width="187">1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-49,858</td>
<td width="189">44,941</td>
<td width="187">4,917</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">22,286</td>
<td width="189">369,015</td>
<td width="187">11,661</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">72,144</td>
<td width="189">324,074</td>
<td width="187">6,744</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">14.1</td>
<td width="189">84.0</td>
<td width="187">41.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-19.1</td>
<td width="189">15.7</td>
<td width="187">15.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>