COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & S&P500
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="463817" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #463817;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216024" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday October 3rd</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="0d121a" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0d121a;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216023" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (18,642 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (16,046 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6,365 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (589 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (567 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The leading market with the declines in speculator bets this week was the DowJones-Mini (-10,829 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-1,706 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Oct-03-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>S&P500-Mini</td>
<td>2,138,034</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>-73,235</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>46,115</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>27,120</td>
<td>48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225</td>
<td>16,376</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>-43</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>-1,058</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>1,101</td>
<td>42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq-Mini</td>
<td>254,924</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>1,435</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>1,646</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>-3,081</td>
<td>59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>DowJones-Mini</td>
<td>100,823</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-32,447</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>29,549</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>2,898</td>
<td>58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VIX</td>
<td>381,162</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>-34,193</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>40,533</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>-6,340</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nikkei 225 Yen</td>
<td>52,277</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>3,042</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>8,418</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>-11,460</td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="19273f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #19273f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216022" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (94 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (66 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (54 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (43 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (34 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (94.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (80.4 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (53.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (51.4 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.0 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (41.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.2 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (34.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (66.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (62.4 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (37.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.7 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>S&P500-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="191011" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #191011;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216021" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (3 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The DowJones-Mini (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (-4.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-19.6 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (9.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.3 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (-42.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-44.2 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-6.7 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.8 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (3.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (0.6 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (0.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.8 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/VIX-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/VIX-10-06-2023.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,835 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">24.9</td>
<td width="189">46.7</td>
<td width="187">6.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">33.8</td>
<td width="189">36.1</td>
<td width="187">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-34,193</td>
<td width="189">40,533</td>
<td width="187">-6,340</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">94,830</td>
<td width="189">178,112</td>
<td width="187">24,423</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">129,023</td>
<td width="189">137,579</td>
<td width="187">30,763</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">94.0</td>
<td width="189">6.5</td>
<td width="187">63.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-4.7</td>
<td width="189">6.5</td>
<td width="187">-13.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ES-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ES-10-06-2023.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,281 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.2</td>
<td width="189">74.0</td>
<td width="187">11.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.6</td>
<td width="189">71.8</td>
<td width="187">10.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-73,235</td>
<td width="189">46,115</td>
<td width="187">27,120</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">239,442</td>
<td width="189">1,582,012</td>
<td width="187">252,547</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">312,677</td>
<td width="189">1,535,897</td>
<td width="187">225,427</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">53.8</td>
<td width="189">46.3</td>
<td width="187">48.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">9.0</td>
<td width="189">-7.7</td>
<td width="187">-1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/YM-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/YM-10-06-2023.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,618 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19.3</td>
<td width="189">64.7</td>
<td width="187">14.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">51.5</td>
<td width="189">35.4</td>
<td width="187">12.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-32,447</td>
<td width="189">29,549</td>
<td width="187">2,898</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">19,480</td>
<td width="189">65,200</td>
<td width="187">15,041</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">51,927</td>
<td width="189">35,651</td>
<td width="187">12,143</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.8 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">93.8</td>
<td width="187">58.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-42.6</td>
<td width="189">35.7</td>
<td width="187">0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NQ-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NQ-10-06-2023.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">25.9</td>
<td width="189">57.9</td>
<td width="187">15.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.4</td>
<td width="189">57.2</td>
<td width="187">16.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">1,435</td>
<td width="189">1,646</td>
<td width="187">-3,081</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">66,087</td>
<td width="189">147,544</td>
<td width="187">38,421</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">64,652</td>
<td width="189">145,898</td>
<td width="187">41,502</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">41.1</td>
<td width="189">46.8</td>
<td width="187">58.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-19.1</td>
<td width="189">20.5</td>
<td width="187">-8.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ER2-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ER2-10-06-2023.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,602 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Sell – Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.5</td>
<td width="189">83.7</td>
<td width="187">5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.5</td>
<td width="189">70.8</td>
<td width="187">5.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-63,308</td>
<td width="189">62,415</td>
<td width="187">893</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">46,209</td>
<td width="189">406,775</td>
<td width="187">25,724</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">109,517</td>
<td width="189">344,360</td>
<td width="187">24,831</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">34.0</td>
<td width="189">65.6</td>
<td width="187">29.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-0.9</td>
<td width="189">2.8</td>
<td width="187">-10.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NKD-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NKD-10-06-2023.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -610 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">14.5</td>
<td width="189">62.2</td>
<td width="187">23.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.8</td>
<td width="189">68.7</td>
<td width="187">16.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-43</td>
<td width="189">-1,058</td>
<td width="187">1,101</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,373</td>
<td width="189">10,185</td>
<td width="187">3,818</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">2,416</td>
<td width="189">11,243</td>
<td width="187">2,717</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.4 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">66.4</td>
<td width="189">29.4</td>
<td width="187">42.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">3.0</td>
<td width="189">-2.7</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/EMI-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/EMI-10-06-2023.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,328 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.7</td>
<td width="189">87.9</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">13.6</td>
<td width="189">83.9</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-18,963</td>
<td width="189">15,418</td>
<td width="187">3,545</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">34,410</td>
<td width="189">345,966</td>
<td width="187">11,231</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">53,373</td>
<td width="189">330,548</td>
<td width="187">7,686</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">37.9</td>
<td width="189">62.4</td>
<td width="187">34.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">0.5</td>
<td width="189">0.9</td>
<td width="187">-7.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
Leave a Comment