COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="473717" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #473717;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218019" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/COT-Stock-Futures-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders (COT)</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday January 30th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">for-profit speculators</a> and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="0b0e13" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0b0e13;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218018" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="559" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 559w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×99.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×93.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/stock-market-news/">stock markets</a> speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the stock markets was Nasdaq-Mini (6,209 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,162 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,489 contracts), the VIX (-5,347 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-175 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<h3>Stock Markets Speculators Leaderboard</h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/stocks_leaders.png"><img data-dominant-color="0c0c0c" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0c0c0c;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218017" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/stocks_leaders.png" alt="" width="567" height="217" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/stocks_leaders.png 567w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/stocks_leaders-160×61.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/stocks_leaders-150×57.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Legend:</strong> Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="1d3050" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1d3050;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218021" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (100 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week and are at the top of their 3-year ranges. The Russell-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (72.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.4 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (31.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (36.5 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (90.0 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.4 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (77.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.7 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (39.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.4 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (35.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="191111" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #191111;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-218020" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="551" height="345" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 551w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×100.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×94.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stocks-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-400×250.png 400w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (26 percent), the Russell-Mini (14 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The VIX (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
VIX (-16.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.9 percent)<br />
S&P500-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.5 percent)<br />
DowJones-Mini (28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)<br />
Nasdaq-Mini (26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (38.7 percent)<br />
Russell2000-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)<br />
Nikkei USD (-10.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-9.7 percent)<br />
EAFE-Mini (8.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.6 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h5>Individual Stock Market Charts:</h5>
<h3><strong>VIX Volatility Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VIX-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VIX-02-02-2024.png" alt="VIX Volatility Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>VIX Volatility Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">20.2</td>
<td width="189">45.9</td>
<td width="187">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">35.9</td>
<td width="189">29.5</td>
<td width="187">8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-54,540</td>
<td width="189">57,042</td>
<td width="187">-2,502</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">70,187</td>
<td width="189">159,581</td>
<td width="187">28,032</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">124,727</td>
<td width="189">102,539</td>
<td width="187">30,534</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">72.8</td>
<td width="189">25.0</td>
<td width="187">83.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-16.3</td>
<td width="189">14.4</td>
<td width="187">11.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ES-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ES-02-02-2024.png" alt="SP500 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -225,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -36,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,473 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.3</td>
<td width="189">74.3</td>
<td width="187">11.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.1</td>
<td width="189">68.1</td>
<td width="187">7.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-225,962</td>
<td width="189">142,194</td>
<td width="187">83,768</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">284,559</td>
<td width="189">1,715,110</td>
<td width="187">264,947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">510,521</td>
<td width="189">1,572,916</td>
<td width="187">181,179</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">31.0</td>
<td width="189">59.5</td>
<td width="187">70.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-4.6</td>
<td width="189">2.6</td>
<td width="187">4.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/YM-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/YM-02-02-2024.png" alt="Dow Jones Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,248 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">36.4</td>
<td width="189">48.2</td>
<td width="187">13.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">13.8</td>
<td width="189">72.7</td>
<td width="187">12.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">24,410</td>
<td width="189">-26,351</td>
<td width="187">1,941</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">39,325</td>
<td width="189">52,040</td>
<td width="187">14,936</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14,915</td>
<td width="189">78,391</td>
<td width="187">12,995</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">2.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">100.0</td>
<td width="189">0.0</td>
<td width="187">53.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">28.1</td>
<td width="189">-28.6</td>
<td width="187">11.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NQ-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NQ-02-02-2024.png" alt="Nasdaq Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,042 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">32.0</td>
<td width="189">53.0</td>
<td width="187">14.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.7</td>
<td width="189">69.3</td>
<td width="187">11.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">39,251</td>
<td width="189">-47,893</td>
<td width="187">8,642</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">94,317</td>
<td width="189">156,086</td>
<td width="187">41,844</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">55,066</td>
<td width="189">203,979</td>
<td width="187">33,202</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.7 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.8 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">100.0</td>
<td width="189">0.0</td>
<td width="187">100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">26.5</td>
<td width="189">-24.3</td>
<td width="187">13.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ER2-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ER2-02-02-2024.png" alt="Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,189 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">16.4</td>
<td width="189">75.9</td>
<td width="187">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.4</td>
<td width="189">76.2</td>
<td width="187">4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-10,504</td>
<td width="189">-1,488</td>
<td width="187">11,992</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">83,470</td>
<td width="189">387,387</td>
<td width="187">34,014</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">93,974</td>
<td width="189">388,875</td>
<td width="187">22,022</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">77.6</td>
<td width="189">19.5</td>
<td width="187">69.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">13.9</td>
<td width="189">-16.3</td>
<td width="187">19.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NKD-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NKD-02-02-2024.png" alt="Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,693 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.5</td>
<td width="189">63.9</td>
<td width="187">24.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">34.5</td>
<td width="189">52.9</td>
<td width="187">12.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-3,868</td>
<td width="189">1,857</td>
<td width="187">2,011</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,931</td>
<td width="189">10,736</td>
<td width="187">4,133</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">5,799</td>
<td width="189">8,879</td>
<td width="187">2,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">39.1</td>
<td width="189">47.2</td>
<td width="187">69.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-10.8</td>
<td width="189">0.4</td>
<td width="187">23.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EMI-02-02-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EMI-02-02-2024.png" alt="MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,966 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.4</td>
<td width="189">89.2</td>
<td width="187">3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.4</td>
<td width="189">83.5</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-29,562</td>
<td width="189">24,171</td>
<td width="187">5,391</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">31,441</td>
<td width="189">376,774</td>
<td width="187">13,648</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">61,003</td>
<td width="189">352,603</td>
<td width="187">8,257</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">35.8</td>
<td width="189">61.8</td>
<td width="187">43.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">8.7</td>
<td width="189">-11.2</td>
<td width="187">12.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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