COT Bonds Charts: Speculators bets led by 2-Year Bonds and Ultra Treasury Bonds

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="272b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #272b23;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215884" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday September 26th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="07090b" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #07090b;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215881" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-2-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (31,163 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (18,129 contracts) and the Fed Funds (15,454 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was the SOFR 3-Months (-182,231 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-61,389 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-31,704 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-29,682 contracts), and the 5-Year Bonds (-18,836 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Sep-26-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>9,718,980</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>317,146</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>-311,986</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>-5,160</td>
<td>85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,630,236</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>-195,078</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>217,052</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>-21,974</td>
<td>48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,903,502</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>-1,210,300</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1,080,594</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>129,706</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,405,064</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>-232,811</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>169,018</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>63,793</td>
<td>95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,767,698</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>-731,998</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>679,643</td>
<td>90</td>
<td>52,355</td>
<td>85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,579,726</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>-1,025,782</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>964,605</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>61,177</td>
<td>86</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="111824" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #111824;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215883" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-2-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (89 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (34 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (20.2 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (17.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.5 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (11.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.4 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.6 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (8.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.2 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (89.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Ultra Treasury Bonds &amp; SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="170f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #170f0f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215882" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-2-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) and the  the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The US Treasury Bonds (-18 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (9.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.2 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-6.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (16.5 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.0 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-18.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (29.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (21.6 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (18.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (33.2 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3-09-29-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 317,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -182,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 499,377 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">20.1</td>
<td width="189">55.5</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.8</td>
<td width="189">58.8</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">317,146</td>
<td width="189">-311,986</td>
<td width="187">-5,160</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,953,987</td>
<td width="189">5,398,262</td>
<td width="187">29,392</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,636,841</td>
<td width="189">5,710,248</td>
<td width="187">34,552</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">89.1</td>
<td width="189">10.9</td>
<td width="187">85.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">18.8</td>
<td width="189">-19.4</td>
<td width="187">5.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FF-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FF-09-29-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -195,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -210,532 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.1</td>
<td width="189">75.8</td>
<td width="187">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.1</td>
<td width="189">62.5</td>
<td width="187">3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-195,078</td>
<td width="189">217,052</td>
<td width="187">-21,974</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">116,359</td>
<td width="189">1,236,201</td>
<td width="187">30,537</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">311,437</td>
<td width="189">1,019,149</td>
<td width="187">52,511</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">23.1</td>
<td width="189">79.4</td>
<td width="187">47.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">9.0</td>
<td width="189">-7.3</td>
<td width="187">-17.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU-09-29-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,210,300 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,241,463 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.0</td>
<td width="189">80.1</td>
<td width="187">6.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">42.0</td>
<td width="189">52.4</td>
<td width="187">3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,210,300</td>
<td width="189">1,080,594</td>
<td width="187">129,706</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">429,541</td>
<td width="189">3,127,095</td>
<td width="187">269,088</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,639,841</td>
<td width="189">2,046,501</td>
<td width="187">139,382</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">4.5</td>
<td width="189">94.7</td>
<td width="187">100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-6.8</td>
<td width="189">7.5</td>
<td width="187">1.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FV-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FV-09-29-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,025,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,006,946 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.8</td>
<td width="189">82.6</td>
<td width="187">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.2</td>
<td width="189">65.3</td>
<td width="187">6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,025,782</td>
<td width="189">964,605</td>
<td width="187">61,177</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">492,741</td>
<td width="189">4,610,560</td>
<td width="187">404,260</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,518,523</td>
<td width="189">3,645,955</td>
<td width="187">343,083</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">17.1</td>
<td width="189">80.2</td>
<td width="187">86.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">12.2</td>
<td width="189">-11.8</td>
<td width="187">-4.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TY-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TY-09-29-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -731,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -702,316 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.7</td>
<td width="189">78.1</td>
<td width="187">9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">26.0</td>
<td width="189">63.9</td>
<td width="187">8.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-731,998</td>
<td width="189">679,643</td>
<td width="187">52,355</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">509,578</td>
<td width="189">3,724,693</td>
<td width="187">434,390</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,241,576</td>
<td width="189">3,045,050</td>
<td width="187">382,035</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">11.5</td>
<td width="189">89.6</td>
<td width="187">84.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">1.4</td>
<td width="189">-4.4</td>
<td width="187">5.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN-09-29-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -198,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,737 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.6</td>
<td width="189">77.5</td>
<td width="187">10.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">20.3</td>
<td width="189">62.3</td>
<td width="187">15.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-198,126</td>
<td width="189">282,654</td>
<td width="187">-84,528</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">179,408</td>
<td width="189">1,441,650</td>
<td width="187">198,446</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">377,534</td>
<td width="189">1,158,996</td>
<td width="187">282,974</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">4.1</td>
<td width="189">94.8</td>
<td width="187">63.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-12.3</td>
<td width="189">10.2</td>
<td width="187">7.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/US-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/US-09-29-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -232,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,107 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.3</td>
<td width="189">79.2</td>
<td width="187">14.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">21.8</td>
<td width="189">67.2</td>
<td width="187">10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-232,811</td>
<td width="189">169,018</td>
<td width="187">63,793</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">74,134</td>
<td width="189">1,113,332</td>
<td width="187">204,449</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">306,945</td>
<td width="189">944,314</td>
<td width="187">140,656</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">8.8</td>
<td width="189">70.9</td>
<td width="187">94.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-18.2</td>
<td width="189">11.2</td>
<td width="187">18.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/UB-09-29-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/UB-09-29-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -373,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -391,576 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.7</td>
<td width="189">81.6</td>
<td width="187">12.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">30.0</td>
<td width="189">59.8</td>
<td width="187">9.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-373,447</td>
<td width="189">334,479</td>
<td width="187">38,968</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">87,944</td>
<td width="189">1,256,355</td>
<td width="187">187,791</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">461,391</td>
<td width="189">921,876</td>
<td width="187">148,823</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">33.5</td>
<td width="189">62.1</td>
<td width="187">74.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">29.1</td>
<td width="189">-32.4</td>
<td width="187">-5.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p>See our <a href="https://investmacro.com/major-markets-trend-model/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><b>Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions</b></a> for each <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot/?swcfpc=1">COT Futures</a> Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.</p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>