COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 2-Year & 5-Year Notes

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="262b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262b23;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216040" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday October 3rd</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the 2-Year &amp; 5-Year Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="07080b" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #07080b;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216042" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds with an increase by 5,305 contracts also showing positive on the week.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-68,001 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-67,690 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-46,781 contracts), the Fed Funds (-34,081 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-24,840 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,835 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-1,883 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Oct-03-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>9,830,949</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>292,306</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>-291,835</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>-471</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,665,599</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-229,159</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>244,663</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>-15,504</td>
<td>61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,959,247</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>-1,278,301</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1,141,551</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>136,750</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,409,347</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>-239,646</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>210,303</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>29,343</td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,782,725</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>-733,881</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>668,481</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>65,400</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,630,744</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>-1,093,472</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>1,027,244</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>66,228</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="111824" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #111824;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216041" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (88 percent) leads the bond markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent), the 5-Year Bond (12 percent) and the Fed Funds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and all are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (23.1 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.0 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (12.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.1 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (11.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (6.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.8 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (33.5 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (87.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.1 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Ultra Treasury Bonds &amp; SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="190f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #190f0f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216039" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest data.</p>
<p>The US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (9.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.0 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-0.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.8 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-3.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (-3.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-17.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-19.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.2 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (25.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (14.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.8 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/SR3-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/SR3-10-06-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 292,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 317,146 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">21.3</td>
<td width="189">54.7</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.3</td>
<td width="189">57.7</td>
<td width="187">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">292,306</td>
<td width="189">-291,835</td>
<td width="187">-471</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,090,851</td>
<td width="189">5,381,526</td>
<td width="187">43,842</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,798,545</td>
<td width="189">5,673,361</td>
<td width="187">44,313</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">87.6</td>
<td width="189">12.1</td>
<td width="187">87.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">14.4</td>
<td width="189">-14.6</td>
<td width="187">1.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/FF-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/FF-10-06-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -229,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,078 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.6</td>
<td width="189">75.5</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">21.4</td>
<td width="189">60.8</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-229,159</td>
<td width="189">244,663</td>
<td width="187">-15,504</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">127,197</td>
<td width="189">1,258,150</td>
<td width="187">33,455</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">356,356</td>
<td width="189">1,013,487</td>
<td width="187">48,959</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">16.8</td>
<td width="189">84.4</td>
<td width="187">60.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">9.6</td>
<td width="189">-8.9</td>
<td width="187">-6.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TU-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TU-10-06-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,278,301 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,210,300 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.8</td>
<td width="189">80.6</td>
<td width="187">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">43.1</td>
<td width="189">51.8</td>
<td width="187">3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,278,301</td>
<td width="189">1,141,551</td>
<td width="187">136,750</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">426,432</td>
<td width="189">3,192,262</td>
<td width="187">280,084</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,704,733</td>
<td width="189">2,050,711</td>
<td width="187">143,334</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="187">2.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">99.9</td>
<td width="187">100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-0.5</td>
<td width="189">-0.1</td>
<td width="187">3.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/FV-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/FV-10-06-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,093,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -67,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,025,782 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.0</td>
<td width="189">82.7</td>
<td width="187">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.4</td>
<td width="189">64.5</td>
<td width="187">6.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,093,472</td>
<td width="189">1,027,244</td>
<td width="187">66,228</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">505,566</td>
<td width="189">4,657,206</td>
<td width="187">403,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,599,038</td>
<td width="189">3,629,962</td>
<td width="187">336,848</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">12.1</td>
<td width="189">85.3</td>
<td width="187">87.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-3.7</td>
<td width="189">3.3</td>
<td width="187">2.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TY-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TY-10-06-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -733,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -731,998 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.3</td>
<td width="189">78.0</td>
<td width="187">9.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.6</td>
<td width="189">64.0</td>
<td width="187">7.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-733,881</td>
<td width="189">668,481</td>
<td width="187">65,400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">492,060</td>
<td width="189">3,728,771</td>
<td width="187">440,265</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,225,941</td>
<td width="189">3,060,290</td>
<td width="187">374,865</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">11.3</td>
<td width="189">88.3</td>
<td width="187">87.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-3.8</td>
<td width="189">1.2</td>
<td width="187">6.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TN-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TN-10-06-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -244,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -46,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,126 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.7</td>
<td width="189">77.3</td>
<td width="187">11.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">21.7</td>
<td width="189">62.2</td>
<td width="187">13.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-244,907</td>
<td width="189">285,820</td>
<td width="187">-40,913</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">165,441</td>
<td width="189">1,462,117</td>
<td width="187">220,058</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">410,348</td>
<td width="189">1,176,297</td>
<td width="187">260,971</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">95.4</td>
<td width="187">89.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-17.8</td>
<td width="189">7.0</td>
<td width="187">35.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/US-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/US-10-06-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -239,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,811 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.7</td>
<td width="189">80.2</td>
<td width="187">13.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.7</td>
<td width="189">65.3</td>
<td width="187">11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-239,646</td>
<td width="189">210,303</td>
<td width="187">29,343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">79,998</td>
<td width="189">1,130,603</td>
<td width="187">186,481</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">319,644</td>
<td width="189">920,300</td>
<td width="187">157,138</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">6.6</td>
<td width="189">85.6</td>
<td width="187">69.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-19.6</td>
<td width="189">26.0</td>
<td width="187">-9.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/UB-10-06-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/UB-10-06-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -368,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -373,447 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">6.2</td>
<td width="189">81.8</td>
<td width="187">11.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">29.7</td>
<td width="189">60.5</td>
<td width="187">9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-368,142</td>
<td width="189">333,000</td>
<td width="187">35,142</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">96,190</td>
<td width="189">1,278,994</td>
<td width="187">184,419</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">464,332</td>
<td width="189">945,994</td>
<td width="187">149,277</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">35.7</td>
<td width="189">61.4</td>
<td width="187">70.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">25.5</td>
<td width="189">-29.5</td>
<td width="187">-2.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>