COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="272b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #272b23;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217579" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday January 9th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; 5-Year Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="090b0e" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #090b0e;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217578" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (179,262 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (119,278 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75,655 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (45,643 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (4,382 contracts) also recording positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-15,127 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10,331 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-4,866 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<h3>Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard</h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/bonds_leaders.png"><img data-dominant-color="0f0f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0f0f0f;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217585" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/bonds_leaders.png" alt="" width="627" height="260" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/bonds_leaders.png 627w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/bonds_leaders-160×66.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/bonds_leaders-150×62.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 627px) 100vw, 627px" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Legend:</strong> Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="162134" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #162134;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217577" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) lead the bond markets this week.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (39.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (40.5 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (19.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.7 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (29.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (34.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (57.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (62.0 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (98.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>5-Year Bonds &amp; Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="190e0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #190e0f;" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-217576" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (14 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (3.8 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (3.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.1 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (-9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-18.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (8.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (0.3 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SR3-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SR3-01-12-2024.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 685,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 179,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 506,101 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">18.9</td>
<td width="189">50.9</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">11.9</td>
<td width="189">57.8</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">685,363</td>
<td width="189">-674,767</td>
<td width="187">-10,596</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,854,270</td>
<td width="189">5,002,614</td>
<td width="187">31,668</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,168,907</td>
<td width="189">5,677,381</td>
<td width="187">42,264</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">0.9 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">98.3</td>
<td width="189">2.1</td>
<td width="187">82.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">8.4</td>
<td width="189">-7.9</td>
<td width="187">-4.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FF-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FF-01-12-2024.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -136,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,327 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.2</td>
<td width="189">69.6</td>
<td width="187">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.5</td>
<td width="189">60.8</td>
<td width="187">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-136,193</td>
<td width="189">142,645</td>
<td width="187">-6,452</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">165,155</td>
<td width="189">1,131,777</td>
<td width="187">38,635</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">301,348</td>
<td width="189">989,132</td>
<td width="187">45,087</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">39.5</td>
<td width="189">60.0</td>
<td width="187">78.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">14.4</td>
<td width="189">-16.5</td>
<td width="187">20.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TU-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TU-01-12-2024.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,238,657 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,243,039 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.2</td>
<td width="189">80.4</td>
<td width="187">6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">43.9</td>
<td width="189">51.0</td>
<td width="187">3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,238,657</td>
<td width="189">1,109,623</td>
<td width="187">129,034</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">421,993</td>
<td width="189">3,038,980</td>
<td width="187">256,226</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,660,650</td>
<td width="189">1,929,357</td>
<td width="187">127,192</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="187">2.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">15.2</td>
<td width="189">83.7</td>
<td width="187">93.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">3.2</td>
<td width="189">-2.3</td>
<td width="187">-7.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FV-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FV-01-12-2024.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,170,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 119,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,460 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.6</td>
<td width="189">83.5</td>
<td width="187">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.8</td>
<td width="189">66.1</td>
<td width="187">4.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,170,182</td>
<td width="189">1,008,597</td>
<td width="187">161,585</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">443,301</td>
<td width="189">4,841,923</td>
<td width="187">438,210</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,613,483</td>
<td width="189">3,833,326</td>
<td width="187">276,625</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">19.1</td>
<td width="189">76.1</td>
<td width="187">97.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">14.6</td>
<td width="189">-17.8</td>
<td width="187">3.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TY-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TY-01-12-2024.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -787,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 45,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -832,663 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.1</td>
<td width="189">79.4</td>
<td width="187">8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.0</td>
<td width="189">63.8</td>
<td width="187">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-787,020</td>
<td width="189">726,488</td>
<td width="187">60,532</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">469,964</td>
<td width="189">3,695,263</td>
<td width="187">414,385</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,256,984</td>
<td width="189">2,968,775</td>
<td width="187">353,853</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">6.1</td>
<td width="189">92.5</td>
<td width="187">86.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-9.9</td>
<td width="189">12.5</td>
<td width="187">1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TN-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TN-01-12-2024.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 75,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,454 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">15.5</td>
<td width="189">73.7</td>
<td width="187">9.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">23.8</td>
<td width="189">62.0</td>
<td width="187">13.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-173,799</td>
<td width="189">244,692</td>
<td width="187">-70,893</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">324,787</td>
<td width="189">1,545,552</td>
<td width="187">202,935</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">498,586</td>
<td width="189">1,300,860</td>
<td width="187">273,828</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.7 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">18.9</td>
<td width="189">80.2</td>
<td width="187">71.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">15.2</td>
<td width="189">-16.4</td>
<td width="187">-1.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/US-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/US-01-12-2024.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -155,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,625 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.3</td>
<td width="189">73.6</td>
<td width="187">13.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">23.0</td>
<td width="189">67.0</td>
<td width="187">9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-155,752</td>
<td width="189">96,151</td>
<td width="187">59,601</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">178,714</td>
<td width="189">1,068,735</td>
<td width="187">197,999</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">334,466</td>
<td width="189">972,584</td>
<td width="187">138,398</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.4 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">29.2</td>
<td width="189">46.9</td>
<td width="187">91.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-18.7</td>
<td width="189">16.6</td>
<td width="187">6.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/UB-01-12-2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/UB-01-12-2024.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -313,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -302,864 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.2</td>
<td width="189">80.6</td>
<td width="187">10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.9</td>
<td width="189">63.3</td>
<td width="187">8.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-313,195</td>
<td width="189">290,221</td>
<td width="187">22,974</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">154,339</td>
<td width="189">1,352,257</td>
<td width="187">167,038</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">467,534</td>
<td width="189">1,062,036</td>
<td width="187">144,064</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">57.9</td>
<td width="189">38.3</td>
<td width="187">58.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">6.5</td>
<td width="189">-14.7</td>
<td width="187">12.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>