COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="262b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262b23;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216399" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday October 31st</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="07090b" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #07090b;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216398" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (27,807 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27,106 contracts) also recording a positive week.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets were the 5-Year Bonds (-182,686 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,336 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-38,841 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-19,143 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-11,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-2,438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Oct-31-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>10,506,359</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>244,972</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>-244,907</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>-65</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>2,028,290</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>-178,027</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>201,942</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>-23,915</td>
<td>44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>4,188,473</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>-1,435,448</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1,312,083</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>123,365</td>
<td>95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,377,938</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>-155,381</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>101,237</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>54,144</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,691,536</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>-627,698</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>531,947</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>95,751</td>
<td>94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,746,137</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>-1,191,589</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1,110,941</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>80,648</td>
<td>91</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="131b28" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #131b28;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216397" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (85 percent) leads the bond markets this week and the only market over 50 percent currently.</p>
<p>On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (21.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.8 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (29.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (36.0 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (48.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.5 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (84.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (87.1 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Ultra Treasury Bonds &amp; US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="1a0f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #1a0f0f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-216396" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (7 percent) and the Fed Funds (7 percent) are the next positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) following next.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (6.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-4.5 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-12.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-13.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (7.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (15.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (22.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.4 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (-15.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.0 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SR3-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SR3-11-03-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,813 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">20.6</td>
<td width="189">56.6</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.3</td>
<td width="189">58.9</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">244,972</td>
<td width="189">-244,907</td>
<td width="187">-65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2,164,995</td>
<td width="189">5,947,333</td>
<td width="187">42,010</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,920,023</td>
<td width="189">6,192,240</td>
<td width="187">42,075</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">84.7</td>
<td width="189">14.9</td>
<td width="187">87.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-15.3</td>
<td width="189">14.9</td>
<td width="187">3.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FF-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FF-11-03-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -178,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,834 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.8</td>
<td width="189">76.0</td>
<td width="187">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.6</td>
<td width="189">66.0</td>
<td width="187">2.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-178,027</td>
<td width="189">201,942</td>
<td width="187">-23,915</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">158,853</td>
<td width="189">1,540,620</td>
<td width="187">28,230</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">336,880</td>
<td width="189">1,338,678</td>
<td width="187">52,145</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">30.5</td>
<td width="189">72.7</td>
<td width="187">44.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">6.9</td>
<td width="189">-7.3</td>
<td width="187">3.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TU-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TU-11-03-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,435,448 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,424,312 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.8</td>
<td width="189">82.5</td>
<td width="187">6.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">44.0</td>
<td width="189">51.1</td>
<td width="187">3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,435,448</td>
<td width="189">1,312,083</td>
<td width="187">123,365</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">408,762</td>
<td width="189">3,453,960</td>
<td width="187">266,889</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,844,210</td>
<td width="189">2,141,877</td>
<td width="187">143,524</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">100.0</td>
<td width="187">94.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-12.7</td>
<td width="189">13.6</td>
<td width="187">3.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FV-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FV-11-03-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,191,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -182,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008,903 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.2</td>
<td width="189">83.4</td>
<td width="187">7.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.9</td>
<td width="189">64.0</td>
<td width="187">5.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,191,589</td>
<td width="189">1,110,941</td>
<td width="187">80,648</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">469,045</td>
<td width="189">4,790,920</td>
<td width="187">403,102</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,660,634</td>
<td width="189">3,679,979</td>
<td width="187">322,454</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">4.8</td>
<td width="189">92.0</td>
<td width="187">91.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-13.7</td>
<td width="189">13.7</td>
<td width="187">3.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TY-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TY-11-03-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -563,362 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.2</td>
<td width="189">76.1</td>
<td width="187">9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.6</td>
<td width="189">64.7</td>
<td width="187">7.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-627,698</td>
<td width="189">531,947</td>
<td width="187">95,751</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">572,295</td>
<td width="189">3,568,418</td>
<td width="187">461,152</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,199,993</td>
<td width="189">3,036,471</td>
<td width="187">365,401</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">21.6</td>
<td width="189">72.7</td>
<td width="187">94.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">7.2</td>
<td width="189">-14.6</td>
<td width="187">11.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TN-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TN-11-03-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -252,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,869 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.8</td>
<td width="189">77.3</td>
<td width="187">11.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">22.3</td>
<td width="189">63.2</td>
<td width="187">12.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-252,307</td>
<td width="189">283,428</td>
<td width="187">-31,121</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">196,655</td>
<td width="189">1,555,303</td>
<td width="187">222,295</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">448,962</td>
<td width="189">1,271,875</td>
<td width="187">253,416</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.2</td>
<td width="189">94.9</td>
<td width="187">95.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-21.9</td>
<td width="189">9.2</td>
<td width="187">43.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/US-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/US-11-03-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -155,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,238 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.3</td>
<td width="189">76.2</td>
<td width="187">14.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.6</td>
<td width="189">68.8</td>
<td width="187">10.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-155,381</td>
<td width="189">101,237</td>
<td width="187">54,144</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">100,784</td>
<td width="189">1,049,386</td>
<td width="187">202,248</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">256,165</td>
<td width="189">948,149</td>
<td width="187">148,104</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.4 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">29.4</td>
<td width="189">47.1</td>
<td width="187">87.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">15.9</td>
<td width="189">-20.1</td>
<td width="187">7.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/UB-11-03-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/UB-11-03-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -336,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363,546 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.8</td>
<td width="189">82.7</td>
<td width="187">11.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.4</td>
<td width="189">63.0</td>
<td width="187">9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-336,440</td>
<td width="189">307,001</td>
<td width="187">29,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">90,876</td>
<td width="189">1,290,048</td>
<td width="187">176,509</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">427,316</td>
<td width="189">983,047</td>
<td width="187">147,070</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">48.5</td>
<td width="189">48.8</td>
<td width="187">65.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">22.3</td>
<td width="189">-22.0</td>
<td width="187">-9.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>