COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="262b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262b23;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215644" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday September 12th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds &amp; SOFR 3-Months</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="08090b" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #08090b;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215643" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (47,233 contracts) with SOFR 3-Months (44,439 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (30,615 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (25,238 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (5,605 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (1,346 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds with a drop by -38,064 contracts and the 2-Year Bonds with a decline of -21,719 contracts on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Sep-12-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>10,667,873</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>316,511</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>-313,438</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-3,073</td>
<td>86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,458,261</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>-184,954</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>195,040</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>-10,086</td>
<td>71</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,653,520</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>-1,239,609</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1,128,539</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>111,070</td>
<td>93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,339,675</td>
<td>72</td>
<td>-192,687</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>152,663</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>40,024</td>
<td>78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,681,032</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>-744,302</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>720,210</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>24,092</td>
<td>79</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,391,830</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>-1,031,030</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>954,444</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>76,586</td>
<td>90</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="121a27" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #121a27;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215642" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (24.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.9 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.8 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (10.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (21.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.1 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.6 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (99.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (96.4 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>SOFR 3-Months &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="180f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #180f0f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215641" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Fed Funds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.2 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-10.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.3 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.0 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (-9.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.3 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.8 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (35.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.2 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3-09-15-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 316,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 44,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 272,072 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">17.9</td>
<td width="189">58.2</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.9</td>
<td width="189">61.1</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">316,511</td>
<td width="189">-313,438</td>
<td width="187">-3,073</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,910,702</td>
<td width="189">6,204,626</td>
<td width="187">37,259</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,594,191</td>
<td width="189">6,518,064</td>
<td width="187">40,332</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.9 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">99.4</td>
<td width="189">0.1</td>
<td width="187">86.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">35.2</td>
<td width="189">-36.8</td>
<td width="187">11.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FF-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FF-09-15-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,890 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.2</td>
<td width="189">74.8</td>
<td width="187">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.9</td>
<td width="189">61.4</td>
<td width="187">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-184,954</td>
<td width="189">195,040</td>
<td width="187">-10,086</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">104,572</td>
<td width="189">1,091,054</td>
<td width="187">35,676</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">289,526</td>
<td width="189">896,014</td>
<td width="187">45,762</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">24.9</td>
<td width="189">75.4</td>
<td width="187">71.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-9.8</td>
<td width="189">10.6</td>
<td width="187">-9.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU-09-15-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,239,609 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,217,890 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.8</td>
<td width="189">83.0</td>
<td width="187">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">42.7</td>
<td width="189">52.1</td>
<td width="187">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,239,609</td>
<td width="189">1,128,539</td>
<td width="187">111,070</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">320,048</td>
<td width="189">3,031,053</td>
<td width="187">259,610</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,559,657</td>
<td width="189">1,902,514</td>
<td width="187">148,540</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.6 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">2.3</td>
<td width="189">98.8</td>
<td width="187">93.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-10.6</td>
<td width="189">12.0</td>
<td width="187">0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FV-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FV-09-15-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,031,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,056,268 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">8.6</td>
<td width="189">82.8</td>
<td width="187">7.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.8</td>
<td width="189">65.1</td>
<td width="187">6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,031,030</td>
<td width="189">954,444</td>
<td width="187">76,586</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">465,279</td>
<td width="189">4,464,077</td>
<td width="187">405,798</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,496,309</td>
<td width="189">3,509,633</td>
<td width="187">329,212</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">16.7</td>
<td width="189">79.4</td>
<td width="187">90.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">16.7</td>
<td width="189">-20.6</td>
<td width="187">7.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TY-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TY-09-15-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -744,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 47,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -791,535 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.0</td>
<td width="189">79.3</td>
<td width="187">8.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.9</td>
<td width="189">63.9</td>
<td width="187">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-744,302</td>
<td width="189">720,210</td>
<td width="187">24,092</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">467,114</td>
<td width="189">3,712,430</td>
<td width="187">404,705</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,211,416</td>
<td width="189">2,992,220</td>
<td width="187">380,613</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">10.3</td>
<td width="189">94.7</td>
<td width="187">78.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-9.6</td>
<td width="189">7.3</td>
<td width="187">6.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN-09-15-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -146,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 30,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -177,048 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.1</td>
<td width="189">75.5</td>
<td width="187">10.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">20.4</td>
<td width="189">62.3</td>
<td width="187">15.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-146,433</td>
<td width="189">233,935</td>
<td width="187">-87,502</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">216,251</td>
<td width="189">1,344,525</td>
<td width="187">189,889</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">362,684</td>
<td width="189">1,110,590</td>
<td width="187">277,391</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">14.6</td>
<td width="189">84.3</td>
<td width="187">62.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">7.9</td>
<td width="189">-9.4</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/US-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/US-09-15-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -192,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,292 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.9</td>
<td width="189">78.8</td>
<td width="187">14.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">20.3</td>
<td width="189">67.4</td>
<td width="187">11.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-192,687</td>
<td width="189">152,663</td>
<td width="187">40,024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">79,656</td>
<td width="189">1,056,184</td>
<td width="187">191,340</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">272,343</td>
<td width="189">903,521</td>
<td width="187">151,316</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">21.9</td>
<td width="189">65.0</td>
<td width="187">77.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-2.0</td>
<td width="189">0.0</td>
<td width="187">4.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/UB-09-15-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/UB-09-15-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -376,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -378,271 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.4</td>
<td width="189">82.8</td>
<td width="187">11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">29.8</td>
<td width="189">60.5</td>
<td width="187">9.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-376,925</td>
<td width="189">343,799</td>
<td width="187">33,126</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">83,739</td>
<td width="189">1,279,765</td>
<td width="187">172,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">460,664</td>
<td width="189">935,966</td>
<td width="187">139,088</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">32.1</td>
<td width="189">66.6</td>
<td width="187">68.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">32.1</td>
<td width="189">-33.4</td>
<td width="187">-10.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>