COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds
<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png"><img data-dominant-color="262c24" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262c24;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214218" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Monday July 3rd</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png"><img data-dominant-color="0b0e14" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #0b0e14;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214215" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>The only market with gains for the bond category was the 10-Year Bonds with a total rise of 20,321 contracts.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-44,151 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-44,022 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-31,326 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-24,681 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-26,881 contracts), the Fed Funds (-17,553 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,713 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Jul-03-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>9,300,042</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>239,839</td>
<td>97</td>
<td>-233,436</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-6,403</td>
<td>84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,414,525</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>-106,758</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>115,921</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>-9,163</td>
<td>73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,667,737</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,058,426</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>970,602</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>87,824</td>
<td>97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,242,918</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>-139,929</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>106,742</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>33,187</td>
<td>73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,737,762</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>-780,678</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>719,909</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>60,769</td>
<td>87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,080,610</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>-1,029,814</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1,026,687</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>3,127</td>
<td>82</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png"><img data-dominant-color="111722" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #111722;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214217" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (97 percent). The US Treasury Bonds (39 percent) and the Fed Funds (34 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (33.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.3 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.3 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (6.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.7 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (39.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.1 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.1 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (97.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)</p>
<p> </p>
<h2>SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png"><img data-dominant-color="170d0e" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #170d0e;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-214216" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (24 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (-1 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.</p>
<p>The US Treasury Bonds (-31 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (-2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.4 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-14.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (-0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-31.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.5 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.4 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (23.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (31.1 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SR3-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SR3-07-07-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 239,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -44,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,990 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">20.2</td>
<td width="189">58.6</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">17.6</td>
<td width="189">61.1</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">239,839</td>
<td width="189">-233,436</td>
<td width="187">-6,403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,880,577</td>
<td width="189">5,453,300</td>
<td width="187">28,213</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,640,738</td>
<td width="189">5,686,736</td>
<td width="187">34,616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">97.0</td>
<td width="189">2.1</td>
<td width="187">84.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">23.5</td>
<td width="189">-23.9</td>
<td width="187">0.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FF-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FF-07-07-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -106,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,205 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">6.5</td>
<td width="189">72.0</td>
<td width="187">2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">14.0</td>
<td width="189">63.8</td>
<td width="187">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-106,758</td>
<td width="189">115,921</td>
<td width="187">-9,163</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">91,610</td>
<td width="189">1,018,379</td>
<td width="187">35,112</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">198,368</td>
<td width="189">902,458</td>
<td width="187">44,275</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">33.5</td>
<td width="189">66.3</td>
<td width="187">73.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-2.9</td>
<td width="189">1.4</td>
<td width="187">18.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TU-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TU-07-07-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,058,426 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,014,404 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">11.1</td>
<td width="189">81.2</td>
<td width="187">6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">39.9</td>
<td width="189">54.7</td>
<td width="187">4.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,058,426</td>
<td width="189">970,602</td>
<td width="187">87,824</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">405,459</td>
<td width="189">2,977,688</td>
<td width="187">241,676</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,463,885</td>
<td width="189">2,007,086</td>
<td width="187">153,852</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">100.0</td>
<td width="187">96.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-14.7</td>
<td width="189">16.7</td>
<td width="187">-0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FV-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FV-07-07-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,029,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -31,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -998,488 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Sell – Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">6.9</td>
<td width="189">84.6</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">27.1</td>
<td width="189">64.4</td>
<td width="187">7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,029,814</td>
<td width="189">1,026,687</td>
<td width="187">3,127</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">348,230</td>
<td width="189">4,297,985</td>
<td width="187">373,393</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,378,044</td>
<td width="189">3,271,298</td>
<td width="187">370,266</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.0 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.5</td>
<td width="189">100.0</td>
<td width="187">81.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-8.5</td>
<td width="189">13.0</td>
<td width="187">-13.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TY-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TY-07-07-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -780,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -800,999 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>New Sell – Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.2</td>
<td width="189">80.2</td>
<td width="187">8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.6</td>
<td width="189">65.0</td>
<td width="187">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-780,678</td>
<td width="189">719,909</td>
<td width="187">60,769</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">434,456</td>
<td width="189">3,798,675</td>
<td width="187">418,993</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,215,134</td>
<td width="189">3,078,766</td>
<td width="187">358,224</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">6.8</td>
<td width="189">95.9</td>
<td width="187">86.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-0.9</td>
<td width="189">4.0</td>
<td width="187">-6.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TN-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TN-07-07-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,188 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">9.9</td>
<td width="189">76.8</td>
<td width="187">11.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.1</td>
<td width="189">65.2</td>
<td width="187">15.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-139,901</td>
<td width="189">197,302</td>
<td width="187">-57,401</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">168,089</td>
<td width="189">1,304,780</td>
<td width="187">201,280</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">307,990</td>
<td width="189">1,107,478</td>
<td width="187">258,681</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.5 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">15.9</td>
<td width="189">76.4</td>
<td width="187">79.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">3.7</td>
<td width="189">-8.1</td>
<td width="187">11.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/US-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/US-07-07-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,248 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.7</td>
<td width="189">79.3</td>
<td width="187">14.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.9</td>
<td width="189">70.7</td>
<td width="187">11.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-139,929</td>
<td width="189">106,742</td>
<td width="187">33,187</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">70,648</td>
<td width="189">985,219</td>
<td width="187">177,299</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">210,577</td>
<td width="189">878,477</td>
<td width="187">144,112</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.1 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">39.1</td>
<td width="189">48.7</td>
<td width="187">72.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-31.5</td>
<td width="189">36.7</td>
<td width="187">-4.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/UB-07-07-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/UB-07-07-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -450,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -423,691 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">4.6</td>
<td width="189">83.6</td>
<td width="187">11.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">34.2</td>
<td width="189">57.7</td>
<td width="187">7.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-450,572</td>
<td width="189">394,354</td>
<td width="187">56,218</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">69,955</td>
<td width="189">1,272,590</td>
<td width="187">174,627</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">520,527</td>
<td width="189">878,236</td>
<td width="187">118,409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.5 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">0.0</td>
<td width="189">99.2</td>
<td width="187">90.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-17.2</td>
<td width="189">23.2</td>
<td width="187">-2.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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