CBA expect the first RBA rate cut in Q1 24, but the risk is for later

<p>Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts after yesterday's RBA decision. In summary:</p><ul><li>cash rate steady at 4.10% in September, the third consecutive on hold decision</li><li>A tightening bias was retained, with uncertainty around services inflation still top of mind.</li><li> China risks were also noted.</li><li>The RBA sound comfortable that higher interest rates are working and we expect the hurdle to hike again remains high.</li><li>We expect 4.10%to be the peak in interest rates. </li><li>The next move in the cash rate should be down. We expect the first rate cut in Q1 24. However the risks are for a later start to the easing cycle.</li></ul><p>RBA decision ICYMI:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-leaves-the-cash-rate-unchanged-at-410-20230905/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">RBA leaves the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-full-statement-of-the-september-rba-monetary-policy-meeting-decision-20230905/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">The full statement of the September RBA monetary policy meeting decision</a></li></ul><p>And, a different view:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nab-expect-one-final-rba-interest-rate-rise-025-in-november-20230905/" target="_self">NAB expect one final RBA interest rate rise, +0.25% in November</a></li></ul><p>The RBA cash rate vs. Australia's inflation rate. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.