By the numbers: June non-farm payrolls preview. 15 in a row?

<ul><li>Consensus estimate +225K (range +110K to +288K)</li><li>Private +200K</li><li>February +311K</li><li>March +236K</li><li>April +190K</li><li>May +339K</li><li>Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.6% vs 3.7% prior</li><li>Participation rate prior 62.6% </li><li>Prior underemployment U6 6.7%</li><li>Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.2% y/y vs +4.3% prior</li><li>Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior</li><li>Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior</li></ul><p>Here's the June jobs picture so far:</p><ul><li>ADP employment 497K vs 170K expected </li><li>ISM manufacturing employment 48.1 vs 51.4 prior</li><li>
ISM services employment 53.1 vs 49.2</li><li>Philly employment -0.4 vs -8.6 prior</li><li>Empire employment -3.6 vs -3.3 prior</li><li>Initial jobless claims survey week 265K vs 259K expected</li></ul><p>According to BMO, the headline payrolls print is seasonally solid in June coming in above estimates 52% of the time and missing 48% of the time by 171k and 70k, respectively, on average. If that holds up, it will be the 15th straight reading above the consensus. That's an unprecedented streak and a remarkable show of strength in the jobs market.</p><p>In terms of strategy, there's plenty of talk of buying bonds on a strong non-farm payrolls print in anticipation of a lower CPI next week. The read-through into FX for that trade would be selling a dollar pop if non-farm payrolls are stronger.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.