Brent advances ahead of OPEC+ decision

<p><strong>By <a href="https://justmarkets.com/?utm_source=investmacro&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_campaign=analytics_market_overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JustMarkets</a></strong></p>
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<ul>
<li>Brent enters squeeze ahead of OPEC+ decision</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Will cartel deliver or disappoint?</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Supply cuts from OPEC+ could trigger 400-point rally</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Brent in ascending triangle and above 21-day SMA</li>
</ul>
<h3>Oil extended gains on Thursday as market focus shifted towards the OPEC+ meeting that was postponed from last week due to internal disagreements.</h3>
<p>Brent prices punched above $83 this morning after jumping almost 4% over the last two sessions after a <strong>severe storm in the Black Sea region sparked supply concerns</strong>. While this development has kept oil prices buoyed, the looming virtual OPEC+ meeting today is likely to influence the global commodity’s outlook.</p>
<p>Given the sharp selloff in oil prices since mid-September,<strong> OPEC+ could make further changes</strong> to an agreement that already limits supply into 2024. Indeed, oil has been hammered by concerns about<strong> weaker economic growth and expectations of a supply surplus in 2024</strong>. However, discord over output quotas for <strong>African oil-producing countries</strong> could act as an obstacle that leads to further delays in negotiations.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Oil prices may weaken</strong> if the cartel <strong>fails to reach an agreement on production quotas for 2024</strong> or disappoint market expectations for deeper supply cuts.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>Should OPEC+ move ahead with deeper supply cuts</strong>, this could lend oil bulls fresh support – pushing the global commodity higher as a result.</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">Technically speaking..</span></strong>.</h3>
<p><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">Since the November 16th low at $77.08, the black gold has rallied within an ascending triangle for over 600 points and as of the time of writing sits above its 21-day SMA at around $83.</span></p>
<blockquote><p><strong><em>According to Thomas Bulkowski in his book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”, ascending triangles perform better with upward breakouts, with a 70% chance of meeting their breakout target, and a 17% breakeven failure rate.</em> </strong></p></blockquote>
<p><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">Brent bulls may take any deeper production cuts as bullish and rally to the following key resistance levels. </span></p>
<h3><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">•            $83.66: the 261.8 Fibonacci level</span></h3>
<h3><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">•            Its 50-day SMA </span></h3>
<h3><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">•            $88: A significant price level</span></h3>
<p><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">The Fibonacci level is drawn from the <strong>September 26 low to the September 28 high</strong> on a daily time frame.</span></p>
<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class=" lazyloaded" src="https://www.forextime.com/s3-static/users/user17/BrentDaily%201.png" alt="" width="1000" height="800" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12d63335-cc3c-4e2d-8ade-411e1dae0ae0" data-src="/s3-static/users/user17/BrentDaily%201.png" /></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">However, if widely reported <strong>disagreements over these quotas continue</strong>, we could see brent oil prices fall to test the following support levels.</span></p>
<h3><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">•            $81.67: the 61.8 Fibonacci level</span></h3>
<h3><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">•            $81.00: the rising trend line capturing lows from November 16th.</span></h3>
<h3><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">•</span>            <span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">$75.47: the 423.6 Fibonacci level </span></h3>
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<p><strong>By <a href="https://justmarkets.com/?utm_source=investmacro&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_campaign=analytics_market_overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JustMarkets</a></strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><i>This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.</i></p>