Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="262b23" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #262b23;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215183" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png" alt="" width="609" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1.png 609w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-160×97.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/COT-Bonds-Open-Interest-Comparison-1-150×91.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px" /></a></p>
<p>Here are the latest charts and statistics for the <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">Commitment of Traders (COT) reports</a> data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>).</p>
<p>The latest COT data is updated through <b>Tuesday August 15th</b> and shows a quick view of how large traders (<a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/#Trader_Groups">for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers</a>) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<h2>Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; 5-Year Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="080a0d" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #080a0d;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215182" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png" alt="" width="605" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1.png 605w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-160×98.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Futures-Speculator-Net-Position-Changes-1-150×92.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px" /></a></p>
<p>The COT <a href="https://investmacro.com/bonds-treasuries-corporate-sovereign/">bond market</a> speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.</p>
<p>Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (58,656 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (39,012 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (22,821 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12,562 contracts) also showing positive weeks.</p>
<p>The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-50,877 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (-55,202 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-8,266 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-409 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.</p>
<hr />
<div>Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Data_Tables_Labels-2.png"><u>Columns Legend</u></a></div>
<div>
<table border="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Aug-15-2023</th>
<th>OI</th>
<th>OI-Index</th>
<th>Spec-Net</th>
<th>Spec-Index</th>
<th>Com-Net</th>
<th>COM-Index</th>
<th>Smalls-Net</th>
<th>Smalls-Index</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SOFR-3-Months</td>
<td>10,263,811</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>4,543</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>10,845</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>-15,388</td>
<td>79</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FedFunds</td>
<td>1,532,025</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>-244,218</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>257,379</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>-13,161</td>
<td>65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2-Year</td>
<td>3,820,729</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,117,392</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>991,941</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>125,451</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long T-Bond</td>
<td>1,370,326</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-176,734</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>137,703</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>39,031</td>
<td>77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10-Year</td>
<td>4,857,422</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>-746,928</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>718,304</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>28,624</td>
<td>80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Year</td>
<td>5,768,718</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-1,191,295</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1,110,195</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>81,100</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2>Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months &amp; US Treasury Bonds</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="101721" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #101721;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215184" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Scores-3-YR-Range-0-100-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Scores</a> (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.</p>
<p>On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), Fed Funds (14.0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Statistics:</strong><br />
vs Fed Funds previous week (23.3 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.0 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.0 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.9 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (27.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.6 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (80.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (76.7 percent)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>10-Year Bonds &amp; Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends</h2>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png"><img data-dominant-color="160f0f" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #160f0f;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215181" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png" alt="" width="571" height="371" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1.png 571w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-160×104.png 160w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Bonds-Speculator-Strength-Score-Trends-6-Weeks-1-150×97.png 150w" sizes="(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/#specs">COT Strength Score Trends</a> (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.</p>
<p>The Fed Funds (-25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Strength Trend Statistics:</strong><br />
Fed Funds (-25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-19.0 percent)<br />
2-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)<br />
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)<br />
10-Year Bond (3.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)<br />
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.8 percent)<br />
US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)<br />
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)<br />
SOFR 3-Months (-16.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-23.3 percent)</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/SR3-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/SR3-08-18-2023.png" alt="SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 4,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 58,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,113 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Long Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>SOFR 3-Months Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">16.7</td>
<td width="189">59.8</td>
<td width="187">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">16.7</td>
<td width="189">59.7</td>
<td width="187">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">4,543</td>
<td width="189">10,845</td>
<td width="187">-15,388</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">1,716,392</td>
<td width="189">6,136,206</td>
<td width="187">26,291</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,711,849</td>
<td width="189">6,125,361</td>
<td width="187">41,679</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.0 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">80.7</td>
<td width="189">19.2</td>
<td width="187">79.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-16.2</td>
<td width="189">17.1</td>
<td width="187">-4.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FF-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FF-08-18-2023.png" alt="Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -244,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -50,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,341 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>30-Day Federal Funds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">2.3</td>
<td width="189">78.3</td>
<td width="187">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">18.3</td>
<td width="189">61.5</td>
<td width="187">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-244,218</td>
<td width="189">257,379</td>
<td width="187">-13,161</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">35,930</td>
<td width="189">1,200,176</td>
<td width="187">31,331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">280,148</td>
<td width="189">942,797</td>
<td width="187">44,492</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.1 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.7 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">14.0</td>
<td width="189">86.8</td>
<td width="187">65.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-25.1</td>
<td width="189">25.5</td>
<td width="187">-7.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TU-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TU-08-18-2023.png" alt="2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,117,392 contracts in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/all-markets-cot-futures-data/">data</a> reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,109,126 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>2-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.0</td>
<td width="189">81.3</td>
<td width="187">7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">39.2</td>
<td width="189">55.3</td>
<td width="187">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,117,392</td>
<td width="189">991,941</td>
<td width="187">125,451</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">380,265</td>
<td width="189">3,105,026</td>
<td width="187">282,436</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,497,657</td>
<td width="189">2,113,085</td>
<td width="187">156,985</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.5 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.8 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">2.3</td>
<td width="189">94.6</td>
<td width="187">100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-4.8</td>
<td width="189">1.9</td>
<td width="187">15.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FV-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/FV-08-18-2023.png" alt="5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,191,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 39,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,230,307 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>5-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">7.9</td>
<td width="189">83.3</td>
<td width="187">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">28.5</td>
<td width="189">64.0</td>
<td width="187">5.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-1,191,295</td>
<td width="189">1,110,195</td>
<td width="187">81,100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">453,025</td>
<td width="189">4,804,142</td>
<td width="187">411,812</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,644,320</td>
<td width="189">3,693,947</td>
<td width="187">330,712</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.3 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">4.9</td>
<td width="189">92.0</td>
<td width="187">100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-11.9</td>
<td width="189">6.7</td>
<td width="187">20.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TY-08-18-2023.png" alt="10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -746,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -55,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691,726 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>10-Year Treasury Note Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">10.2</td>
<td width="189">78.7</td>
<td width="187">8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">25.6</td>
<td width="189">63.9</td>
<td width="187">8.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-746,928</td>
<td width="189">718,304</td>
<td width="187">28,624</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">495,210</td>
<td width="189">3,822,746</td>
<td width="187">430,877</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">1,242,138</td>
<td width="189">3,104,442</td>
<td width="187">402,253</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.4 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.1 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">10.0</td>
<td width="189">95.7</td>
<td width="187">79.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">3.3</td>
<td width="189">-0.2</td>
<td width="187">-7.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TN-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TN-08-18-2023.png" alt="Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -137,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,951 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Weak Uptrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">12.5</td>
<td width="189">76.7</td>
<td width="187">9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.9</td>
<td width="189">63.9</td>
<td width="187">14.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-137,389</td>
<td width="189">235,155</td>
<td width="187">-97,766</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">230,163</td>
<td width="189">1,416,246</td>
<td width="187">168,833</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">367,552</td>
<td width="189">1,181,091</td>
<td width="187">266,599</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.6 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">0.6 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">16.4</td>
<td width="189">84.5</td>
<td width="187">55.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">0.5</td>
<td width="189">8.1</td>
<td width="187">-24.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/US-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/US-08-18-2023.png" alt="US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -176,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -199,555 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">6.9</td>
<td width="189">75.9</td>
<td width="187">14.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">19.8</td>
<td width="189">65.9</td>
<td width="187">11.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-176,734</td>
<td width="189">137,703</td>
<td width="187">39,031</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">94,337</td>
<td width="189">1,040,666</td>
<td width="187">195,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">271,071</td>
<td width="189">902,963</td>
<td width="187">156,586</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.3 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.2 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.2 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">27.1</td>
<td width="189">59.7</td>
<td width="187">76.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">-12.0</td>
<td width="189">11.0</td>
<td width="187">4.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h3><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/UB-08-18-2023.png"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="aligncenter" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/UB-08-18-2023.png" alt="Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT Chart" width="720" height="660" /></a>The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -445,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -445,088 net contracts.</p>
<p>This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.</p>
<h3>Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend</h3>
<p>Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: <strong>Strong Downtrend</strong>. The current action for the model is considered to be: <strong>Hold – Maintain Short Position</strong>.</p>
<table border="0" width="908" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics</strong></td>
<td width="188"><strong>SPECULATORS</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>COMMERCIALS</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>SMALL TRADERS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Longs:</td>
<td width="188">5.5</td>
<td width="189">79.9</td>
<td width="187">11.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">33.0</td>
<td width="189">55.2</td>
<td width="187">8.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Net Position:</td>
<td width="188">-445,497</td>
<td width="189">401,243</td>
<td width="187">44,254</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Longs:</td>
<td width="188">89,227</td>
<td width="189">1,296,276</td>
<td width="187">177,740</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Gross Shorts:</td>
<td width="188">534,724</td>
<td width="189">895,033</td>
<td width="187">133,486</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Long to Short Ratio:</td>
<td width="188">0.2 to 1</td>
<td width="189">1.4 to 1</td>
<td width="187">1.3 to 1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION TREND:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):</td>
<td width="188">4.4</td>
<td width="189">94.5</td>
<td width="187">79.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):</td>
<td width="188"><strong>Bearish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="189"><strong>Bullish-Extreme</strong></td>
<td width="187"><strong>Bullish</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24"><strong>NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:</strong></td>
<td width="188"></td>
<td width="189"></td>
<td width="187"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="344" height="24">– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:</td>
<td width="188">2.1</td>
<td width="189">3.3</td>
<td width="187">-11.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>