Bond Market Dynamics: Yields Retreat and Fed Speculation

In the last couple of sessions, bond yields have been on a roller-coaster ride, witnessing declines both at the short and long ends of the curve. The 10-year bond yield, which peaked at 5% last week, has now retreated to 4.62%, while the 2-year bond yield has fallen from 5.24% to 4.98%. These movements have significant implications, primarily due to their impact on the market's perception of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market has effectively priced out the possibility of a rate hike from the Fed in December, while expectations for rate cuts in 2024 have increased. This shift is attributed to the market's dovish interpretation of the recent Fed meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell's stance during the meeting raised doubts about the need for further tightening, given the batch of weaker-than-expected fundamental data on the U.S. economy this week. Key data points from the first half of the week, such as manufacturing PMI, ADP jobs data, and an unexpected uptick in initial claims data, have all added to the argument against imminent tightening. For instance, the unexpected cessation of the recent downward trend in unemployment claims data is noteworthy. The headline reading revealed 217K new claims, slightly missing the consensus estimate of 210K. The previous week's figure was also revised higher to 212K. Continued claims, an indicator of people remaining unemployed, ticked higher to 1818K, surpassing the 1800K estimate. Continuing claims have been on the rise since September indicating that difficulty in finding a new job has increased:This rising trend in unemployment claims may signify a deterioration in the labor market, which, in turn, could have a dampening effect on inflation. The link between rising unemployment claims and the labor market's health is crucial. As more people struggle to find employment, it can lead to reduced consumer spending and demand, thereby acting as a potential brake on inflation. Dollar's Bullish Momentum and Overbought Status The U.S. dollar has displayed bullish momentum, reaching its highest level since late November 2022. However, it's essential to keep in mind that the dollar could be considered overbought, especially given the Federal Reserve's proximity to the end of a tightening cycle, as indicated by Powell during the last meeting. This scenario suggests that the risks for the dollar are currently skewed towards the downside:Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP Today, essential reports to watch are the NFP and the PMI report for the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The services sector, accounting for nearly 70% of U.S. output, is a vital indicator for measuring the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy. The consensus estimate stands at 53 points, slightly lower than the September reading of 53.6 points. This report, along with two additional PMI reports from S&P Global, though less crucial than the ISM's report, will collectively provide investors with a clearer picture of the U.S. economy's performance in October. The consensus estimate for growth in job count is 180K, significantly less than the stellar September print of 336K. The range of estimates is 125K – 300K. A reading below 100K should be the clear signal for a dollar fall; however, if job growth is in line with estimates or slightly weaker, it is unlikely to see a significant dollar downtrend. Wage growth is expected to decelerate from 4.2% to 4.0%, and unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%.